Bruce

What I understood him to say about Castledine is that he saw him as a potential second striker. It does seem like Conway is basically a second striker who prefers to play off-centre so I saw the implication that he could replace Conway as a sub when required but presuming we have someone else playing in the main striker position. I had a look at his heat map in league one and it's very much the classic left-sided forward in a 4-2-3-1. If you compare his heat map with Conway's, they're similar in mostly being on the left but Conway spends more time in the box while Castledine spends more time in his own half. As you say, they can play with Conway central and Castledine just off him on the left but Conway has struggled as a central striker. I think Hellberg's betting on Strelec hitting a groove and starting the remaining games as our main striker.

To be honest, I think Paylor is wrong. Castledine and Sarmiento are both wide(ish) forwards/#10 types. They can play wide but they both want to cut in. The nearest to an orthodox winger we have is Silvera and he spent most of his career playing as an inverted winger on the left. Hellberg has done well to retrain him to play on the right because he tended to look lost on the right without his comfort-blanket move of cutting in from the left to shoot somewhere in the vicinity of the goal. I wouldn't say Strelec is great in the air. He's more like a Bamford in that he can make smart runs to get some space but he isn't going to outjump a centre-back. I do think that the one player we have who can read his movement and deliver a pinpoint pass is Ayling. There's certainly hope that we can reskin the Ayling/ELL bromance with him and Strelec. Firing crosses in from Targett and Brittain isn't going to work though.

True. All else being equal it comes down to our match at Ipswich. Beat them and we end up second. Lose against them and they end up second. Draw and they probably end up second on goal difference. Since match day 18 when Hellberg took over Boro Pld 18, w11, D3, L4 GD +15, Pts 36. Ipswich Pld 18*, w11 D3 L4 GD+14, Pts 36. Their rearranged matchday 6 game against Blackburn was played during this period. Basically, it's a dead heat but they have the advantage of playing us at home. They do have to play one more match than us but I would say it looks like 52/48 in Ipswich's favour right now.

On the whole I like it. You can argue that getting promoted via the playoffs shows that you're a team that can generate points in the regular league and don't bottle big occasions. Switching to the new format gives a slight advantage to 3rd and 4th place teams who only have to play 3 games while 5th-8th have to play a 4th. If the team that finished 3rd can't beat the winner of the 6th vs 8th match, in a 1-off match at home, that looks like a bottle job. It does also extend the interest in the season. Right now, Derby are 8th with 51 points. Everyone down to Birmingham would still fancy their chances at 8th. Even a team like Norwich who are 6 points off but have turned their season around after changing their manager will feel there's still a chance. I think the only thing I would change is making the 2nd round of games (3rd vs 6th/8th and 4th vs 5th/7th) single games at home for the 3rd, 4th place team. That would be a better reward for the superior league performance.

Rather unusually, because we're due to play Ipswich, 2nd place is in our hands and in their hands. If either team wins all their remaining games, they are guaranteed second place. If we both win all our other games then the winner between us and Ipswich ends up in second. (A draw means the best goal difference gets second which is likely to be Ipswich.) To a neutral observer, Ipswich are probably very slight favourites because they play us at their home. Another way to think of it. We have 11 games left. If we repeat our form of the last 11 games for the next 11 game we end up on 89 points. Ipswich have 12 games left, if they repeat their form of their last 12 games they end up on 89 points which means it goes to goal difference. Again, using the last 11/12 games as form we end up on +30, they end up on +37. What I have a horrible feeling will happen is that we end up 3rd and play Wrexham on the last day. They end up 6th which means we immediately play them again in a double-header for 3rd/6th play-off. And that gives me PTSD from 3 years ago against Coventry.

Reposted here on request. I think, for now at least, that our formation against Birmingham suits our players best. People get obsessed about wing-backs but the way we play there is very little difference between a wing-back and a full-back. By playing with 3 central defenders our 2 wing/full-backs have more defensive support which means they can focus more on their attacking duties. If anything, it means they may have to do less running because they won't have to be starting their attacks from a deeper position. With three CBs and 2 wing-backs we have Brittain, Targett and Ayling who all have Premier league quality in their passing along with Malanda who is infeasibly good at passing from the back. That means we have plenty of attacking potential but, during periods when the other team presses us high, they can fall back to a back five. It also means Ayling can't be isolated by a centre forward. When it comes to back-ups, we have Brittain, Browne and in an emergency Ayling at right back, Malanda, Fry, Ayling, Jones (when fit), Edmundson, Browne and Targett who can all play CB in a 3 and Targett, Munroe (and when fit) Bangura as a left back. I wouldn't mind betting when chasing a game that Targett gets replaced by Sarmiento who can possibly play as a hybrid winger/wing-back the same way that Izzy did. Having three up front makes sense given the thinness of our options. We have McGree, Conway, Strelec, Whittaker, Sarmiento and Castledine who appear to be the six that Hellberg actually rates. Silvera will give us a 7th option when fit. We can play with 2 strikers and a #10 or 2 #10s and a striker depending on the match. Our normal midfield 2 is Hackney and Morris with Gilbert and Browne as first back-ups. We can also switch to 3-5-2 on demand as well. McGree and Gilbert are both perfectly good #8s on the left side.

I think, for now at least, that this formation suits our players best. People get obsessed about wing-backs but the way we play there is very little difference between a wing-back and a full-back. By playing with 3 central defenders our 2 wing/full-backs have more defensive support which means they can focus more on their attacking duties. If anything, it means they may have to do less running because they won't have to be starting their attacks from a deeper position. With three CBs and 2 wing-backs we have Brittain, Targett and Ayling who all have Premier league quality in their passing along with Malanda who is infeasibly good at passing from the back. That means we have plenty of attacking potential but, during periods when the other team presses us high, they can fall back to a back five. It also means Ayling can't be isolated by a centre forward. When it comes to back-ups, we have Brittain, Browne and in an emergency Ayling at right back, Malanda, Fry, Ayling, Jones (when fit), Edmundson, Browne and Targett who can all play CB in a 3 and Targett, Munroe (and when fit) Bangura as a left back. I wouldn't mind betting when chasing a game that Targett gets replaced by Sarmiento who can possibly play as a hybrid winger/wing-back the same way that Izzy did. Having three up front makes sense given the thinness of our options. We have McGree, Conway, Strelec, Whittaker, Sarmiento and Castledine who appear to be the six that Hellberg actually rates. Silvera will give us a 7th option when fit. We can play with 2 strikers and a #10 or 2 #10s and a striker depending on the match. Our normal midfield 2 is Hackney and Morris with Gilbert and Browne as first back-ups. We can also switch to 3-5-2 on demand as well. McGree and Gilbert are both perfectly good #8s on the left side.

After a bit of a wobble this is an almost perfect match to relight the fire. Leastways, that's what I'm telling myself. Personally, I feel that Hellberg may spring some surprises tonight. He's not going to change how we play but I think he is the type of coach who will freshen things up and try to pose unexpected questions to the opposition. A while back, when Brittain was out, he played a kind of lop-sided wing-backs system and I think we might see that again only with Brittain playing the role Browne played. We've had some problems recently where we've wanted the ball-playing ability of Ayling and the defensive strength of Fry, so one answer is to play them both. What to do up front probably depends on what he's been seeing in training. Brynn Ayling - Fry - Malanda Brittain - Morris - Hackney -Targett Whittaker - McGree Conway It could also be a 3-5-2 with McGree playing on the left of a midfield three. That would be very similar to how Wilder set us up in the early days. The front three are presumably McGree, Conway and 1 from Whittaker, Strelec or Sarmiento. It's certainly not a defensive structure because Ayling and Malanda are so progressive on the ball. I actually feel quietly confident about this* so I am going for 2-0 win to us. *Not actually true.

Some basic notes. Wage costs going back significantly over 100% of turnover is a real problem. The operating loss of £11.5m looks scary (especially when it comes to Gibson's chequebook) but once you add in the usual PSR credits, we're probably comfortably under the lower limit we can lose each year. Gibson loaned the club £15.25m last summer to cope with cash-flow issues which has been paid back. The transfer warchest. I've been tracking the actual spend since Scott came in because I believe that our transfer kitty is supposed to be self-financing. Adding in the figures from the current accounts including the net figures on page 34 for post reporting period expenditure look like this. As of 1/2/2026. Figures are in 100,000s and brackets mean payments. So (9,923) means paid £9,923,000 Season Paid Received balance 20/21 (7,064) 34,116 12,052§ 21/22 (9,923) 10,594 12,723 22/23 (12,213) 3,171 3,681 23/24 (18,793) 17,417 2,305 24/25 (22,611) 20,300 (2) 25/26* net (9,900) (9,902) §estimate of £15m removed to deal with P&S issues. A net spend of £9,900,000 from 30/6/2025 to 31/1/2026 was reported in the last set of published accounts. This does include compensation for Edwards. I think the reason for the publication in February is to allow them to report on the January window as well. Short version of this, is that as of today, we appear to have overdrawn our transfer kitty by nearly £10m. These are actual, reported figures. I suspect it goes a long way to explaining January's lack of activity.

Sofascore does the same. Interesting to compare Targett against Coventry and Oxford. Coventry really pinned him back while he was virtually camped in Oxford's half. Britain on the other hand managed to push forward against both though more so against Oxford.

Before the Coventry game, I said that it was looking like the way to counter Hellball was 4-4-effing-2. Lock up the centre of midfield with 2 enforcers, put two powerful strikers up front and 2 fast wingers to supply them. Expect to only have about 30% of the ball and turn the middle of the pitch into a quagmire. That's what Coventry did. If your aren't good enough to do that, you set up in a low block and play for a draw or to nick a goal on a counter or set-piece. That was Oxford's game plan, one they've used all season and, along with Derby, they are about the best proponent of it in the league. The two systems share something in common which is they block the middle of the pitch. As we don't have any wingers and the first instinct of all of our players (except Brittain) is to cut in, it means we have to be at our absolute best to pick a way through. Even if we did have wingers, we don't have any forwards who can actually head a ball. It has come to something when the only aerial presence we have in the box is Whittaker. Leicester will likely do a mix of the two. They have really good wingers: Fatawu will likely be in running for player of the season.* They maybe don't have the defensive strength in the middle of the pitch that Coventry did and definitely lack the physical presence up front. Ayew and Daka have both struggled. With Gary Rowett they have a classic fire-fighter of a coach who has been called in to do the same thing for them that Warnock did for us. Like the Oxford game, I'm expecting this to be a real grind. They desperately need to stabilise; they haven't kept a clean sheet since the 20th September so I am expecting them to pack the defence. As for us, we're back to a situation where Whittaker has gone off the boil and we're still struggling with a massive drop off in quality from the 1st 12 players and everyone else. I'm assuming McGree will be back after having his injury managed and Ayling will be back for his quality going forwards. Probably means the last position is a choice between Strelec and Browne. I would be tempted to start Strelec again and see if the show of faith is repaid. Hard on Browne. Brynn Brittain - Ayling - Malanda - Targett Morris - Hackney Whittaker - McGree Strelec - Conway To be honest, I suspect another 0-0. I think Leicester will try and catch us cold then, if it's still 0-0 after 20 minutes, retreat to defence. *It looks like Fatawu maybe out with a knee injury. That said, Monga is a really good prospect.

I think we'll see McGree for Morris sooner rather than later. Or possibly Gilbert for Morris and McGree for Sarmiento.

For what it's worth and bearing in mind these are Transfermarkt values (in Euros) this is what the last few non-parachute payment teams spent in the summer only. Note as well that this doesn't include loan fees. Sunderland 25/26 €187,900,000* staying up Ipswich 24/25 €129,000,000 relegated Luton 23/24 €22,800,000 relegated Notts Forest 22/23 €165,000,000 16th Brentford 21/22 €38,200,000 13th Villa 19/20 €149,500,000 17th Sheff Utd 18/19 €52,000,000 9th Brighton 17/18 €52,000,000 15th *Sunderland's net spend was about €132m because, unusually, they received €51m in transfer fees from Bellingham et al.

Seems sensible. It is a squad game these days and it's important that the three players coming in get minutes and, hopefully, prove themselves.

I think it will come down to whether McGree has (largely) put his injury problems behind him. I guess (if we get promoted) that we're likely to play 40-42 matches depending on cup runs. If McGree can start 30+ of them then that would be ideal. If he starts 12+ of our final 14 matches then that is a good indicator. My take on it is that we need a spine of premier league quality in GK, CB, DM and one forward (2 forwards depending on McGree). It might look a bit harsh on Brynn, Jones and Morris but I think they need a season as a back-up in the Premier league to prove themselves. I think the forward, ideally, is someone over six feet with pace who can also play out wide. Bit of a unicorn, admittedly. Then we need rotation options for Hackney, Brittain, Targett (if we re-sign him) and another forward. Some of these could be "projects" but, as you say, by project we're talking about someone we would expect to be premier league capable within a season so they're not going to come cheap.