sackrobson2

The graph here is kind of trying to do a similar thing to what I think CT is looking at. This is measuring cumulative deaths in each country against the number of days since the 10th death in that country. Unfortunately the graph is a bit busy, I’d prefer if it showed less countries but I couldn’t find another version. The more vertical the line the worse it is. The uk seems to be following the Italy and Spain trajectory very closely which is a worry.

It will be interesting to see how they allocate the key equipment between the various countries. I've just seen on the BBC news app that the government are changing their story. Coronavirus: 'Mix-up' over EU ventilator scheme https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52052694 Now it turns out we didn’t get some emails and therefore missed a deadline to join the EU programme. Got to wonder how bad communication is in this government, every other day there’s contradictions.

That's still a hell of a lot! Impressive you can start at sets of 60, think I'd struggle to get to 20. I might start having a go but think my starting target will be 100 in a day.

No he’s not saying that. He’s actively saying he’s going to reopen. He’s fired the doctor who did all the covid briefings because he doesn’t like his advice. The way he fires everyone who’s advice he doesn’t like.

They have a phone App in Singapore and / or South Korea which traces people who have tested positive so people know in real time where all confirmed cases are. I guess this is a key part of the "dance" strategy. But to get to that position, most of the world still has to go through an intense isolation period. We just have to do it, I think this article is very good. I worry for the US people with there insane leader threatening to reopen the country in weeks because he's losing too much money in his hotels and stocks.

Hopefully not NHS facemasks!

Well if that's true I hope everyone stops going to his pubs when they reopen. Horrible bloke.

Yeah maybe it should be sports cancellation news as that really is the only sports news right now.

Yes exactly this. So many people don't seem to actually listen to what's said. I see Mike Ashley is keeping Sports Direct open as he claims they are an essential service. The greed of the man knows no bounds. I really hope people take note of things like this and when its all over boycott his stores. Profiteering off this kind of thing is as low as it gets.

Yeah I get what you are saying. Where I was coming from was that China had a death rate of 4% (apparently) and I didn't think anyone would be able to deal with it as well as them. But while China have tested significantly it does seem like they also have unreported cases so hopefully they are lower. I also spend lots of time playing around with numbers and so I've been doing some digging and it seems like every country has totally different methods of coming up with their figures, which makes it very difficult to compare. Italy has been an outlier almost from the moment it arrived there. It turns out (according to one of the sky news app stories) that in Italy if you have the virus and die, they record it as being death by the virus even if you die of something else, this is a bit weird and may explain partially why their figures look so bad. In an earlier post, we mentioned the discharge / recovered rates stat. It turns out that in the UK we only record cases from hospital so they are in fact discharged figures from the UK. In a way this makes me a bit more relaxed about our numbers. In other countries though they widely test and the figures include recovered people who didn't get particularly sick. All in all this means its very difficult to get reliable figures, I think all we can really conclude is its a bad one.

But that’s the point, you are adding in new people to dilute the results. Imagine nobody else contracts the virus. The denominator remains at 300k, the numerator increases significantly. So of the 300,000 people who have it now, a lot more than 4% of them will die. That was my point, I’m not arguing about other stuff. I agree lots of other people have it we don’t know about so the real number is then reduced but we just have no idea what that number is. I also agree death rates seem to be massively diffeeent for healthy younger people than old people or people with pre existing conditions. But I’m sure a lot of people on this board fall into the higher risk of death categories so that’s probably not very reassuring. What we all have to do is try to slow it down and hope a vaccine can be produced ASAP. That will be the game changer. It’s *** but we have to stay home and try to protect the more at risk people.

My point was that the stat of 4% literally assumes that none of them will die. Every death from those 200,000 increases this %.

I’m not sure that means it’s only hospitalised. It says recovered / discharged, recovered suggests it includes anyone confirmed recovered, otherwise it would just say discharged. Though how they get these numbers I’m not sure. Presumably if you have mild symptoms and have to quarantine at home you would need to be tested again a few weeks later before you can come out of quarantine. I think to be honest it’s not clear exactly what the true figures are but what’s clear is a lot of people are dying and to reduce the number we all have to try and spend a few months at least being antisocial.

That’s all true but of those 300,000 you quote, approx 200,000 still have it and a hell of a lot of them will die, so that 4% number doesn’t really mean much. It just means 4% of the recorded people who have it now have died at this point, when only a third of cases have resolved. I agree we have no idea of actual total cases, certainly in the Uk we are not even trying to find this out. on the plus side, Wilson highlighted that people do die a lot quicker than they recover so the early stats are massively weighted to the deaths. On that worldometers website there is a graph of this particular measure and the Chinese started out at almost 50% and it came down to 4%. As the virus is subsiding in China it is converging with the simple deaths divided by cases metric which is only really valid once the virus has gone away.

The current world death rate based on total recorded closed cases is now up to 11%. It was 6% a couple of weeks ago. It’s gone up since China got the virus under control. The official recorded death rate in China was about 4% and no country will get close to that figure, it will be higher everywhere else in the world. Anyone on here still kidding themselves this is a flu needs to wake up. The uk will end up with a death rate significantly higher than 4% and this means old people are at a massively higher risk of death. There’s a big argument lots of people are going undiagnosed which is fair enough but Germany are testing everyone. See the chart. 21,000 cases and only 73 deaths. A paltry 0.3% death rate. But also see the closed cases chart. 26% death rate. stay at home guys.