Mad_Dog_Poggy
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Posts posted by Mad_Dog_Poggy
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1 hour ago, TeaCider24 said:
Bringing in Venables completely demolished Robson's authority and basically ended his time here, so I'm not sure it's a great example to follow.
My point was not what it did for Robbo’s long term career, but that he understood it was necessary to save the club from relegation. He could have thrown his toys out the pram, “how dare you, don’t you know who I am” style , and kicked off & left when Venables came in.
Gordon Strachan had enough about him to swallow his pride, tear up his contract and leave without further pay, when he saw his chances of success were limited.
Carrick right now is a novice manager with limited experience to pull on from himself & the coaching staff that surrounds him, would he be prepared to accept help? I’m guessing not, which would be a shame.
Using a crystal ball if he leaves here unsuccessfully in the next month or two, he either has to take a number two role to an experienced manager in the top half of the prem, or land the England U21 job (much like Southgate) and build from there before getting another shot at manager.
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In these situations it sometimes boils down egos & pride, something modern day footballers have in abundance. When we brought in Venables to support Robson, that must have been difficult for Robbo, but he did it for the benefit of the club.
Would turning to Mike Phelan and René Meulensteen as assistants now be too much of a dent to Carrick’s ego that he admits to needing help? Would he fear the players would look at him differently if more experienced coaches were brought in to help him?How many managers refuse to “give up their beliefs” in a system or formation, then ultimately get fired as it doesn’t work.
We’ve had Monk that didn’t have a clue, almost spoilt for choice with forward options, the weekly team sheet changed personnel & formation so much, I genuinely thought the team was selected by lucky dip. Then we’ve had stubborn managers (eg. Wilder) wedded to a style/formation/tactic , and would flat out refuse to change despite horrendous runs of results. Something in the middle would be ideal, a manager with enough about them to understand when something needs changing, and not being afraid to do so, but also not someone that changes things every week hoping that something will work.
I think Carrick needs to lower his opinion of himself a little, and understand in management terms he is an apprentice/novice, so should embrace guidance & support. Let’s be honest I doubt he’s getting many frank or sensible words from nodding dogs Woodgate & Leadbitter.
The only way things turn around is if a player or 2 hit such a vein of form that they carry the team, it doesn’t seem like it will be down to any tactical changes that Carrick implements, as he’s refusing to make them.
As always I hoped to be proved wrong.
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37 minutes ago, ballyclover said:
Do you think Woodgate was a Gibson appointment or a Carrick one?
IIRC when we were in discussions with Carrick for the job, the backroom team was going to have both René Meulensteen & Mike Phelan in it, looks like Woodgate & Leadbitter were the cheaper option.
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For CDM I'd be all over Hull's bid to sign Max Bird from Derby, reasonably low price tag but at 22 yrs his value could increase significantly whilst also doing a job we need.
CB --- Jan Paul van Hecke loan to buy agreement
RB --- Javier Manquillo loan until January with option to extend until the end of the season
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We need 9 points from the next 6 games to match Wilder's start to last season. I can see us getting 8 points ( wins = QPR & Cardiff . draws = Blackburn & Sheff Weds) . What are your predictions for points on the board after 10 played ??
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I understand that Tommy Smith is awesome & not at all a liability because ( checks notes ) he's played a lot of games, but I do hope we're looking at RB options before the window closes.
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Played 10 against Feyenoord according to --> https://www.espn.in/football/match/_/gameId/675338 <--
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Hahaha , wow it is funny to see who think they are somehow morally superior to others based on the political cult they are aligned with. Tribalism shouldn’t really have it’s place in the political arena, but it has and I dare say it’s here to stay.
Politics is now more interested in smear, gotcha’s & hit points, than rational discourse for the betterment of the people. MP’s more interested in likes, retweets & maybe the chance of a spot on reality TV.
The vast majority of the 650 MP’s paid from the tax-payer purse are far more concerned with their own interests than those of the constituents that voted them there. Being an MP should be an absolute privilege, and daily efforts should be made to improve the lives of those they are supposed to serve. But the narcissists are more interested in pursuing a Z-list celebrity lifestyle.
Just puppets lead by party whips to vote for/against or abstain from bills that they don’t even bother to read.Get all worked up which side is “best” and hate the other side, it’s really what they want it makes you a willing idiot at the ballot box.
Anyway Bonjour !!
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Giles has made his decision but the move can not be finalised until Wolves have Aaron Creswell's move completed, which will drag on as West Ham want £5M, whereas Wolves are only offering £2.5M
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14 minutes ago, Riverside94 said:
Howson at RB ??
Hope not. Doesn't have the pace for it.
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Was at the game yesterday, and one thing that wound me the most was short corners. Every single corner we had, we took short, resulting in zero threat or opportunity. I think we had around 7 or 8 corners in total.
Lenihan, Fry, Crooks & Rogers to aim at yet not once was it attempted.One of the best signings we could make this summer would be a set piece specialist coach. I’m sure Brentford had success with doing this.
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I don’t think it’s as cut and dry as a choice between Prem or Championship footy, when it comes to a Luton or us.
At Luton he’ll arguably be in the worse team in the Prem, where the opposition will go at them. This could mean Giles defensive frailties at LB are exposed more than his attacking attributes are showcased. I like Giles and would love him back no question, but when opposition right wingers tried to get behind him and put the pressure on, he did show some weakness. If you times the quality of the wingers he’ll be up against by at least 2 or 3, he could have a torrid time.Another season here topping the assist chart whilst developing his defensive game, could lead to Prem footy the season after, either with us promoted or a bigger Prem team taking interest.
I genuinely feel confident that if he has only two options on the table, us or Luton, I think he’s wearing red.
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49 minutes ago, BoroSmoggie said:
What a weird way to judge someone’s ability lmao, are you serious?
who’s calling him a messiah? Some posters just appreciate and notice how integral he was to absolutely everything good we did last year.
If people honestly can’t see what he brought to the team last year then I give up.Yes, I am serious. If Howson is genuinely one of the best midfeilders in the division, why doesn't the wider footballing audience also acknowledge it.
Was he equally "integral to absolutely everything good we did last year" as he was for what was poor ?
Don't give up, I was 12 once with my favourite players name on my shirt, and I wouldn't have heard a bad word about them either.
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1 hour ago, JonnyMFC said:
Howson makes the it on the team sheet for every single championship team, that's how bad he is!
Leicester have Wilfred Ndidi, Boubakary Soumaré, Harry Winks, Hamza Choudhury, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Dennis Praet availabe in Centre Mid, but Howson would start before any of those?
Also why has no other Championship team ever put a bid in for him, especially when his contract has near run out every season. No bids for player that gets into every team in the division how odd.
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4 minutes ago, Changing Times said:
Our season didn't got to pot when he was out injured. He only missed four games, one at Rotherham, and the three against Coventry. He played in the Luton game before that where we lost. If you're referring to the patchy form before that, well then he played in the losses against Burnley and Huddersfield, and the draws against Stoke and Bristol City. He played when we lost at Coventry earlier in the season, different circumstances of course but still the same end result, and he played almost every minute under Wilder, and was captain, when we were mostly crap.
Our season going to pot, or just falling off a bit from the great run we'd been on, was because Fry was missing. There's a post somewhere on the forum that I did about it. He came on at West Brom when we were already 2-0 down, missed the Burnley game, missed the Huddersfield game, missed the Luton game, the plays offs, Coventry and Rotherham in the league. We only lost three times when Fry started a game after Carrick took over - the first game at Preston, the defeat at Burnley, and the game against the Mackems where he got sent off. That's a difference maker, not the bloke playing almost every minute who is bad when we are bad, average when we are average, good when we are good. Howson doesn't influence anything, he is carried along in almost every game he plays, if we are bad he can't change it, and he can't stop collapses like that Huddersfield. He's never been a massive influence on a Boro team since he's been here. He can't change games, he can't take them by the scruff of the neck, and if we are getting overrun he is unable to do anything about it. That's the reality of Howson - a top end Championship player at the end of his career, we haven't even had him at his best to be blunt. Much better at both Leeds and Norwich than he has been here.
Spot On.
Here's the EFL Championship team of the season centre mids for recent years.
2022-23 - Alex Scott (Bristol City) & Josh Brownhill (Burnley)
2021-22 - Yates (Notts For) & Billing (Bournemouth)
2020-21 - Alex Mowatt (Barnsley) & Emi Buendia (Norwich)
2019-20 - Kalvin Philips (Leeds) & Matheus Pereira (West Brom)
2018-19 - Jack Grealish (Villa) & Olly Norwood (Sheff United)
2017-18 - Tom Cairney (Fulham) & Ruben Neves (Wolves)
2016-17 - Aaron Mooy (Huddersfield) & Jonjo Shelvey (Newcastle)
If Howson is as good as some would have us believe, why hasn't he been in a team of the season or even nominated on the shortlist for one.
I don't dislike him or think he's garbage, but he's not the footballing messiah some of our fans make out.
We need better quality for autos.
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I know this will upset the ‘rose tints’ but if we’re serious about automatic promotion this season we have to replace Howson with an improvement.
Howson is a lovely fella, first to arrive & last to leave training, has bags of Championship experience, and on his day can pull out a 9/10 performance against a Prem team in the cup.
As a captain maybe some prefer his cool calm demeanour, but when the chips are down I don’t see him as a “leader of men” on the pitch.
He’s not a DM that can free up the likes of Hackney/Barlaser/Payero, whilst adding some protection to the defence. And with 3 assists & zero goals last season in a more forward thinking team, I struggle to be wowed on that front.
I judge players by what I see week in week out on the pitch, I don’t let a decent performance in the FA Cup, carry a player. I see a 35 year old that now struggles with the consistency required for 2 games a week of a hard slog Championship season. He’s a sideways or backward passing specialist, that nods off during games.
I don’t hate the bloke, I’m glad he’s in the squad, but if we’re serious about autos we won’t achieve them if Jonny Howson is first name on the team sheet every game. I hope I’m wrong, but I’ve said the same for a couple of seasons now.
The game against Stoke was an eye opener, they took the battle to the middle of the park and completely dominated. So much so that Howson was pulled in the 66th minute.
For those saying Barlaser isn’t as forward thinking as Howson, Barlaser got 8 assists & 2 goals last season. I’m not saying Barlaser should take his spot, just pointing out facts.
We need a quality DM , you may say that’ll have a negative impact on the goals scored column, but we leaked 56 goals last season, where Burnley (35) & Sheff United (39) conceded far less.
Anyway fire away with the “how dare …. “ replies, etc. I have an opinion and I’m sticking with it, we need to improve on Howson, whilst having him available from the bench to help see out games if required.
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35 minutes ago, Changing Times said:
Can I talk about why this stuff interests me in the first place before I answer that please?
We conceded 56 goals last season. It's very difficult, not impossible though, to get promoted conceding nearly 60 goals. Norwich managed it a few seasons back, winning the title conceding 57 I think, but usually you need to do better than that. Our tally should reduce this season just by virtue of Carrick having a full season, or rather a full season with him last season would have seen us concede a few less goals, everything else being equal. We'd still have been over 50 though, which is a little higher than you'd like but if you're scoring a lot of goals then obviously you can make up for that. Last season we were the second top scorers in the league by a decent margin from third place as well (11 goals). I think we may end up scoring fewer goals this season, that's just based on little things that I look at, and it's obviously only based on the squad as it is now rather than what we will actually have this coming season. If that did end up being correct then we'd probably need to find some goals at the other end from better defending.
Plenty of people would I think say that Steffen (and Lenihan) were good signings for us. Fair enough. But they also played more minutes than nearly everyone else (only Giles played more) and we could only manage the 12th/13th best defensive record in the league. I don't feel like you can simply blame everyone else around them but not them for that. Some of the responsibility has to be theirs. Fry I believe to be our best defender but he is struggling to play a full part in our seasons. Clarke is obviously struggling as well. McNair and Lenihan won't get us promoted in my opinion, and then we have the young lad coming in. So if our goalkeeping isn't better, and our defenders are mostly the same, where do the defensive improvements come from in order to get promoted? That's one of the reasons I'm emphasising why I think pure goalkeeping is quite important to us.
In terms of Dieng, he was roughly on a par with Steffen last season as I said in the previous post. I haven't seen his stuff for previous seasons but I believe that last season was a poor one by his standards so you'd hope that a fresh start, and a better team, might get him back to whatever his best was. If we get that and he helps our defence improve then that would be a big boost to us I reckon. I said the other day on a post that if there aren't loads of available goalkeepers who are better than Dieng out there then he may be the best that we can get. Above anything else we could do with a goalkeeper who is on the right side of expected goals conceded type stats, someone who makes an impact by himself. If your question is along the lines of, do you think Dieng is better than Steffen though, then I don't really know. I think he's better than Roberts mind, who without any signings would be our first choice I guess. I think maybe the reason we are looking at two goalkeepers is because the club aren't 100% sure on either of them, and are hedging their bets a little.
I think one of the main reasons we leak goals is that our centre mid is porous, and offers little in the way of a shield. Dimi was not the highest rated keeper in the Championship by a long stretch, but having the Gibson & Ayala partnership in front of him and with Leadbitter & Clayton in front of those, Dimi kept a load of clean sheets.
I know to some Howson is god-like and immune to criticism, but defensively he’s weak, and at worst he gets caught napping on the ball and has his pocket pinched. I think Hackney should be given license to roam, but he needs a partner more defensively minded.
Ben Pearson, Lewis O’Brien, Harrison Reed, Marvelous Nakamba, are perhaps available, or the Brentford lad Frank Onyeka.
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1 hour ago, Rob said:
that would be villa's thoughts, what if he ends up like brit and they dont get the money and dont get the money now, they dont want to factor in risk that they are not in control of when they dont have to.
they have all the leverage they will never put the money they want guaranteed - on add ons, if anything they will use the leverage to get the money they want and the add ons too. imagine if we took such a deal on spence, let spurs have him 6m and then take a massive amount on the profits, that deal would be pretty bad, instead we got what we wanted guaranteed and then had considerable add ons that we probs thought may not happen but good to have just incase
what you are proposing is something that would make sense in business buying a company or its assets (outside of football) with the cash rich seller open to doing long term deals that would make the seller more money as they don't need the cash up front and happy to make more from the deal.
but in football a lot is about guarantees and money they can use right now so (epically with FFP to keep on top of). they would be more likely to bite on something like an extra few million to allow us to pay over a extra few years (or delay the initial payment) than a bunch of maybes which cost them on the guaranteed money (a bit like we took a much bigger offer to buy rhodes from us through sheff wed after a loan (which was essentially a time delayed purchase to keep them within FFP allowances),
but I think our club is going to be very cautious about us agreeing to terms that leave us open to owe more money out unless it really works for us too, and don't think they would want to sign young players with the level of upside he could have and make it so we hardly make anything when we sell him if it goes well, the point signing these people is to make good money if they work out.
plus making the deals go this way wont compete with parachute payment clubs, they will still be able to offer better terms
Last I’ll say on it as I think I being misunderstood and don’t wish to derail.
Taking a loan of a player of Archer’s calibre is a cost negative (loan fee + wages) investment in terms of ROI on that transaction, as we’re simply increasing the value of another clubs asset. Which is fine if you get promoted but if you don’t and you’re doing it with 4-5 players a season, it gets costly.
Basing the club strategy on player related profit, likely get’s you Matthew Hoppe’s and season after season of Championship football. If you consider Tav & Spence academy players sold, I struggle to think off the top of my head other than Adama Traore, who we’ve paid a fee for and later sold for profit? Marten De Roon? Gaston? It’s slim pickings.
IF and I’ll say again IF, there is a chance to format an agreeable to all parties deal to take a player like Archer and it becomes a low profit or cost neutral deal, surely that is better business than a cost negative loan deal. IF and I’ll say again IF there was a binary choice to lose money on a deal (loan) or simply break even (permanent with clauses) but have that same player for a season, I don’t understand who’d prefer a loan because the permanent doesn’t have loads of profit.
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30 minutes ago, Rob said:
one reason why they would never give such a below market cut price deal up front for ridiculous sell on clauses because it gives the buying club very little incentive to sell him.
going to be hard to tempt us to sell him if we know we only getting 25% or 50% of the profit, if we buy young players like this I'm certain the club wants as much of the upside as they can get on future sales as we completely rely on that money to keep us solvent.
this is why you never really see deals made this way, most clubs do everything in their power to avoid add on clauses if they can, often making decisions on players futures based on them, ones with such heavy add on percentages take away the clubs incentive to cash in
plus in the archer situation they have all of the leverage with any deal not us. in reality they probs want the fee up front that they want (anything from 12-20m I reckon) and may well be asking for (much smaller maybe 10%ish) profit (or sell on) clauses anyways, epically if there is for example 3+ clubs in the mix for him, which I'm sure they would be if they said he's for sale now, any maybe add ons for performance etc too.
the parachute payment clubs that you say these deals would compete with would just offer more of the guaranteed money, not the maybe we will pay what you want and a bit more in a few years, otherwise you would hear about these sort of deals all the time. so your not really going to compete against parachute payment clubs if they are going to offer better terms and/or more money than you.
plus you cannot put these maybe payments on your books as profit, a club like villa for example are going to be very mindful on the ffp allowances and can front load a players full value of the sale even if paid in instalments on the date the deal was down to boost the ffp allowance
but you would totally see deals like this all the time if clubs were interested in them, and I think they don't happen because they think it leaves too much wriggle room for the buying club to try and get out of the payment, or injuries, form and bad management could well cost the selling club the money.
As mentioned the trick is finding a deal that suits all parties, I’m not suggesting we get Archer for peanuts upfront. But a scope to find a realistic fee that either we can afford (£10M??) or that they’ll accept a spread out payment plan, that is incentivised by back end payments.
Of course loop-holes for player swaps etc to avoid back-end clauses being triggered would need to be closed off to protect the selling club.
I’m just suggesting that IF there were 2 options to have Archer back next season and they were,
( a ) Cost negative = Loan with fee & wages
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( b ) Cost neutral = Permanent with heavily weighted back-end clauses
Wouldn’t the obvious be option ( b ) ? We can talk about lost resale revenue, but what if he turns into a Michael Ricketts? How much did we get from Britt Assombalonga’s resale?
If we can get a proven talent in on a cost neutral basis, we should look to generate money from lower rick investments (Izzy Jones, etc) elsewhere.
The “investment & return” mindset gets you Matthew Hoppe , so in my humble opinion getting someone more proven to perform on the pitch and deliver on our ambitions on a cost neutral basis doesn’t seem too daft.
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10 hours ago, Rob said:
our club would never agree to such high sell on clauses at 25/50/75% as it would remove most of the resale value. be like buying older players
I would suggest the club would be narrow minded and slightly business inept if they didn’t consider sell on clauses (linked to profit beyond fee paid & player wages) to obtain more established and higher quality players.
A loan for Archer could incur a loan fee, say £2M and we pay his wages say £1.5M, if he does well, scores goals, Villa can sell elsewhere, and beyond having a decent player for the season we get NOTHING in terms of ££. In fact we’re -£3.5M on the balance sheet.
A deal with an achievable (for us) transfer fee, weighted with a back-end sell on clause linked to PROFIT, would in the same circumstance as the above, achieve some ££ for us. Hell even if we agreed to 100% profit clause (beyond our fee & player wages) to Villa, we’d get £0 upside (beyond recouping costs) but still be £3.5M better off than a loan.
The trick is finding a deal that suits all, that Villa (or others) would agree to. They still get a guaranteed upfront transfer fee, wages off their books, and the chance of further ££ if the player reaches a higher level & is sold for a bigger fee with bags of profit. Maybe throw in a promotion clause as well.
We need to do smarter deals in an environment where we have tight rules (FFP) and limited funds, or else it’s going to be impossible to compete with parachute payment clubs.
I’m not stating anything as fact, just thinking out loud.
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If we haven’t (or can’t due to FFP) splash the big bucks to land the likes of Archer, we need to be a bit smarter with how deals are constructed.
The risk to Villa letting Archer go permanently is that a worldie of a season, and with inflated prices for top English players, they could miss out on ££ millions by selling now. Another season on loan could prove he’s either ready for Villa first XI or his value has increased more, so why would they sell?
Personally I wouldn’t be adverse to a % of profit sell on clause. The higher the possible % , the lower the up front transfer fee, or vice versa. I’d ensure the profit was resale minus our transfer costs & wages, so we’d never be out of pocket.
£12M fee + £1.5M salary, if we sold after 1 season for £20M we’d give Villa an extra £1.625M with a 25% clause. Villa total = £13.625M
£10M fee + £1.5M salary, a £20M resale after 1 season’ we’d give Villa an extra £4.25M with a 50% clause. Villa total = £14.25M
£8M fee + £1.5M salary, a £20M resale after 1 season, we’d give Villa an extra £7.875M with a 75% clause. Villa total = £15.875M
My point being that a lower upfront fee doesn’t necessarily mean a poor deal (for Villa), if the sell-on is structured correctly. If Archer eventually goes from us for a similar fee as Watkins from Brentford to Villa (£28M) , they could do well from such a clause.
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5 minutes ago, mj south said:
Is Matt Clarke in any of th training pictures?
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Not a rumour, just a 'it would be good if' post.
Ben Pearson was the best player on the park when we played Stoke in March. They're desperate to get him back. I know at 28 he breaks the 26 or under rule we have this window, but Jonny Howson was 29 when we signed him, and he's still considered useful 6 years later even if we haven't sold for profit.
At around £1.5M-£2.0M he goes straight into the first XI as an improvement, he's not an all-rounder in CM like Howson, but more a dedicated DM which would free up Hackney to roam higher up the pitch.
Loads of Championship experience, a genuine leader, and someone that will add a bit of steel in the middle of the park, where on occasions last season we were a bit powder-puff & easy to dominate.
Just a thought.
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Wouldn't say no at £2.5M
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The Transfer Window
in Boro Forum
Posted
It wasn't £10m for just O'brien, it was £10m for him and Toffolo. I could be wrong.