The Summer/Autumn transfers thread 2020 aka TURN DOWN FOR WHAT(more)

[tmcc 181]

Just now, Tobermory said:

12 players scored 15 or more last season. 2 got promoted.  That's 17%.

It isn't just about having a striker that puts away chances.

It's about the team.  The AK Championship years showed us that.

also of thosse 11 players (not 12) with 15 goals or more,  8 played for sides that made the playoffs or got promoted. the other 3 were karlam grant at hudds, jarrod bowen who left hull in janruary, hul were in the playoffs at the time and ended up getting relegated after selling him (again higlighting the power of a good striker) and the final was adam armstrong  who finished 12th. 
take away points :

out of the top 6 sides, only 1 side WBA didnt have a 15+ a season goal scorer,

only 2 sides that finished in the bottom half had 15+ a season goalscorer, Hull (who were in playoffs till bowen left) and hudds

if you want to be competative/top half, a 15 goals+ a season is a good indicator that you will acheive this based off last seasons stats.
 

[BegSteeleOrBoro 45]

On strikers. Our problem has not necessarily been strikers - we’ve had lots of class strikers over the time period mentioned, from Yakubu, Hasslebaink, Viduka, Boksic to poachers with good record like Rhodes, Boyd and Britt. The issue has been - and continues to be - creating good chances. How many class attacking midfielders have we had in the past decade? Look how the correlate with our goals scored. With Rav we had Juninho, with Ricard we had Gazza (almost got an England recall), and with Bamford we had Tomlin/Ramirez.  Most of the time we have not had a true attacking midfielder - maybe excluding Zenden (who was class but didn’t contribute as many goals/assists as I thought). 
 

We desperately need to take a chance on an attacking player who actually creates chances, can dribble and takes men out of the game. They are rare and cost money, but it’s better to have one that raises the value of the players around you - rather than keep buying expensive strikers and selling them for a massive loss when they suddenly (and apparently surprisingly) stop scoring when they get few chances.

Edited September 26, 2020 by BegSteeleOrBoro

[Tobermory 87]

39 minutes ago, tmcc said:

Also of those 11 players (not 12) with 15 goals or more,  8 played for sides that made the playoffs or got promoted. the other 3 were Karlan Grant at Hudds, Jarrod Bowen who left hull in January, Hull were in the playoffs at the time and ended up getting relegated after selling him (again highlighting the power of a good striker) and the final was Adam Armstrong  who finished 12th. 
take away points :

out of the top 6 sides, only 1 side WBA didn't have a 15+ a season goal scorer,

only 2 sides that finished in the bottom half had 15+ a season goalscorer, Hull (who were in playoffs till bowen left) and Hudds

if you want to be competitive/top half, a 15 goals+ a season is a good indicator that you will acheive this based off last seasons stats.
 

Wiki says 12.

Of those 12, 3 played for Brentford, who didn't get promoted.

I agree it helps, but having 1 decent striker does not a promotion team make.

[Changing Times 3,180]

1 hour ago, CrazyL said:

We finished 2nd and were promoted in one of these seasons. Leeds top scorer in the Championship last season was Bamford with 17. No other player managed double figures in league goals for them. WBA top scorer in the league got 10. It’s nice to have a 20 goal striker but by no means a necessity.

If you have goals throughout the team then you don't need to rely on one goal scorer.  We don't have that.  Leeds scored 77 goals last season.  We scored 48.  We need about 70 goals from the squad we have, I don't see them myself but maybe others do.

[TAPOUT 361]

5 minutes ago, BegSteeleOrBoro said:

On strikers. Our problem has not necessarily been strikers - we’ve had lots of class strikers over the time period mentioned, from Yakubu, Hasslebaink, Viduka, Boksic to poachers with good record like Rhodes, Boyd and Britt. The issue has been - and continues to be - creating good chances. How many class attacking midfielders have we had in the past decade? Look how the correlate with our goals scored. With Rav we had Juninho, with Ricard we had Gazza (almost got an England recall), and with Bamford we had Ramirez. Most of the time we have not had a true attacking midfielder - maybe excluding Zenden (who was class but didn’t contribute as many goals/assists as I thought). 
 

We desperately need to take a chance on an attacking player who actually creates chances, can dribble and takes men out of the game. They are rare and cost money, but it’s better to have one that raises the value of the players around you - rather than keep buying expensive strikers and selling them for a massive loss when they suddenly (and apparently surprisingly) stop scoring when they get few chances.

I wouldn’t say no to the attacking player you describe, but you cannot have 2 chances on a plate in the 6 yard box, like today and blame creativity.

[tmcc 181]

Just now, Tobermory said:

Wiki says 12.

Of those 12, 3 played for Brentford, who didn't get promoted.

I agree it helps, but having 1 decent striker does not a promotion team make.

my point is it helps, massivley,

ill make one final point on this cause im sure nobody else is intersted,

over the last 10 championship seasons, if you had a 20 goal a season striker, you had a 50% chance of promotion, if you have a 15 goal a season striker, you have a 20%, if you dont have either your chances of promotion drops  to  7/8% (yes i worked it out). 

so your twice as likely to get promoted with a 15 goal a season striker than without, and twicw as likely to get promoted with a 20 goal a season striker compared to a 15 goal a season striker.

or put another way

without 15-20 goal player 10/1
with 15 goal/ 5/1

with 20+ 2/1

not saying its impossible and teams clearly do it, but the stats dont lie, your chances of getting promoted massivley increace with a goalscorer in the squad.

 

[Changing Times 3,180]

2 hours ago, TAPOUT said:

I read your post as frustration that even when Britt has been given 2 chances within the 6 yard box, with only the keeper to beat, he has needed a third or possibly fourth such chance to score. Hopefully we will get another striker in with a physical presence up top to give Warnock options. You cannot deny Britts workrate this season, but whilst he is supposedly our main man I have accepted we will not be in the mix for the play offs. People say we dont create enough, but if Roberts had set those chances up they would be saying he was just what we need. He isn’t, we need a striker that can put those chances away.

See, I don't agree with this.  Assombalonga's two chances today weren't sitters.  The second one certainly wasn't with a defender all over him and the first one I just don't think he expected.  He should have expected it though, so that one I do place the blame on him. 

We don't create enough.  If you HAVE to take one of the few chances you get then you aren't creating enough, it's as simple as that.  We don't create a lot of good chances, we create the odd one during a game, and if we don't take it then we struggle to score.  We still seem to be completely reliant on crosses into the box, and hoping the opposition doesn't defend it well enough, or that the cross is so good that we are presented with a great chance.

[Tobermory 87]

1 minute ago, tmcc said:

my point is it helps, massivley,

ill make one final point on this cause im sure nobody else is intersted,

over the last 10 championship seasons, if you had a 20 goal a season striker, you had a 50% chance of promotion, if you have a 15 goal a season striker, you have a 20%, if you dont have either your chances of promotion drops 7/8% (yes i worked it out).  so your twice as likely to get promoted with a 15 goal a season striker than without, and twicw as likely to get promoted with a 20 goal a season striker compared to a 15 goal a season striker.

 

I'm sorry, I think that is correlation, not causation.

Having a 20-goal a season striker is indicative of the team working. Yes the player needs to put the chances away, but every part needs to work, a well-drilled defence, a midfield that can destroy and create and strikers that put away chances.

I don't disagree with you, I just think you're simplifying things.

In my view, what we need right now, is a plan, not a 20-goal a season striker.

[tmcc 181]

Just now, Changing Times said:

See, I don't agree with this.  Assombalonga's two chances today weren't sitters.  The second one certainly wasn't with a defender all over him and the first one I just don't think he expected.  He should have expected it though, so that one I do place the blame on him. 

We don't create enough.  If you HAVE to take one of the few chances you get then you aren't creating enough, it's as simple as that.  We don't create a lot of good chances, we create the odd one during a game, and if we don't take it then we struggle to score.  We still seem to be completely reliant on crosses into the box, and hoping the opposition doesn't defend it well enough, or that the cross is so good that we are presented with a great chance.

the problem i have with britt isnt, he isnt an all round player, hes a poacher, the type of player that should only need 1 chance, not 3/4. if he was playmaker/ dribbler type who created also you'd cut him some slack, but hes a out and out old school poacher he dosent offer much else other than goals. the two chances today wernt easy, but id expect better with both chances.

[TAPOUT 361]

2 minutes ago, Changing Times said:

See, I don't agree with this.  Assombalonga's two chances today weren't sitters.  The second one certainly wasn't with a defender all over him and the first one I just don't think he expected.  He should have expected it though, so that one I do place the blame on him. 

We don't create enough.  If you HAVE to take one of the few chances you get then you aren't creating enough, it's as simple as that.  We don't create a lot of good chances, we create the odd one during a game, and if we don't take it then we struggle to score.  We still seem to be completely reliant on crosses into the box, and hoping the opposition doesn't defend it well enough, or that the cross is so good that we are presented with a great chance.

You dont have to agree CT. If you dont think a centre forward should score with a one on one with the keeper in the 6 yard box, thats fine. If he has 2 such chances,I do. In his fourth season he is just confirming to me that we need something different.  As I said on a previous reply, if you need to create 3 or 4  One on one chances for your centre forward to score each game you are going to struggle.

[BegSteeleOrBoro 45]

12 minutes ago, TAPOUT said:

I wouldn’t say no to the attacking player you describe, but you cannot have 2 chances on a plate in the 6 yard box, like today and blame creativity.

I don’t disagree with that, he should score today. But if you are discussing 15 goals in a season then you have to look past the goals scored/chances created on a single day (unless it’s a very good day!).
 

I’m not a big fan of Britt as a striker - misses too many easy chances - but I’m not going to blame him alone for our inability to score goals over the past few years.

[TAPOUT 361]

Just now, BegSteeleOrBoro said:

I don’t disagree with that, he has to score. But if you are discussing 15 goals in a season then you have to look past the goals scored/chances created on a single day (unless it’s a very good day!).
 

I’m not a big fan of Britt as a striker - misses too many easy chances - but I’m not going to blame him alone for our inability to score goals over the past few years.

I agree with that. I dont blame Britt completely. He puts in a great deal of work, especially this season. I do think that with a greater physical presence up top we can be more effective. As it stands, Long term though I do not think Britt is an answer to the problems we have. Maybe that will change if we get a unit up top, but as it stands I dont see his contribution to the club as being indispensable.

[Changing Times 3,180]

20 minutes ago, tmcc said:

the problem i have with britt isnt, he isnt an all round player, hes a poacher, the type of player that should only need 1 chance, not 3/4. if he was playmaker/ dribbler type who created also you'd cut him some slack, but hes a out and out old school poacher he dosent offer much else other than goals. the two chances today wernt easy, but id expect better with both chances.

No striker in the world needs just one chance though, so that's completely unrealistic.

Edited September 26, 2020 by Changing Times

[Changing Times 3,180]

12 minutes ago, TAPOUT said:

You dont have to agree CT. If you dont think a centre forward should score with a one on one with the keeper in the 6 yard box, thats fine. If he has 2 such chances,I do. In his fourth season he is just confirming to me that we need something different.  As I said on a previous reply, if you need to create 3 or 4  One on one chances for your centre forward to score each game you are going to struggle.

I don't think he was one on one in the way you mean it, albeit I think he should have anticipated the first chance, and he quite clearly didn't.  We don't have to create 3 or 4 one on one chances for him to score. I'd be amazed if there were many games in the time that he's been here that we've created 3 or 4 one on one chances for the entire team, never mind him alone.

[TeaCider24 1,650]

In fairness to Assombalonga, he seemed well aware that he'd fluffed some big chances in his post match interview.

I don't think anyone could argue that he hadn't put the effort in either.

He should have done better with the chances he had, but he put a shift in today.