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Next seasons manager....


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8 hours ago, LinoJo3 said:

Sorry but how can you argue that having premiership and guaranteed parachute payments wouldn’t be a good thing? We spent awfully after the last promotion and still got it all back through sales. Having that money would be a god send for this club, now more than ever.

sorry im not trying to argue there not a good thing, the main premise of my argument has been flipped and iv got stuck defending a point i never really made.

my point was that hiring a man who has retired in multiple times and most likely be gone in 12 months is short sighted and there is little to be gained from it.
in the best case senario ( and in IMO highly unlikley senario)  we get promoted we have a manager who has never kept a side in the prem . on that bases i think its very likely we will go down and due to his age he will be gone.

id prefer the senario where we go up with a manager who isnt retiring every 6 months, so he could stick around if we do go down. much like parker at fulham, dycke at burnley , farke at norwich and southgate also (sacked for being 2nd place, how daft that looks now).


anyway, of the 3 options  i outlined, people have jumped on the most outlandindish and unrealitc one and defending it like its already happening while conveniently ignoring the other 2 much more likely senarios.
 

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33 minutes ago, GrimsbyBoro said:

But we don’t have too. I don’t remember Norwich spending a fortune trying to stay up.

We could go up bank and build.

yes, i agree and this is what i want, but what was the key the here? they kept the same manager, Farke has been in charge for 4 years now.
my argument isnt that going up and getting the money etc is bad, its that going up with a manager who's never kept a side up, has retired 3 times and will most likely reitre in the next 18 months is just a bad plan. theres no consitancy forcing a rebuild to place in another 12-18months, why wait? why not get somebody somewhat long term in now?

The whole premise of my arugment has been flipped onto the prem money and parachute payments, but all im trying to say is that we are in a perfect position to rebuild this summer (high wage players leaving etc) and hiring Warnock for another 12 month just dosent seem smart for the reasons i outlined in my orignal post.



 

 

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12 minutes ago, tmcc said:

yes, i agree and this is what i want, but what was the key the here? they kept the same manager, my argument isnt that going up and getting the money etc is bad, its that going up with a manager who's never kept a side up, has retired 3 times and will most likely reitre in the next 18 months is just a bad plan. theres no consitancy forcing a rebuild to place in another 12-18months, why wait? why not get somebody somewhat long term in now?

The whole premise of my arugment has been flipped onto the prem money and parachute payments, but all im trying to say is that we are in a perfect position to rebuild this summer (high wage players leaving etc) and hiring Warnock for another 12 month for the reasons i outlined just dosent seem smart for the reasons i outlined in my orignal post.



 

 

The issue as I see it is that we have a recruitment method/system that is proven to be useless at finding a manager. We have had  4 terrible appointments before Warnock. 

NW is not great but he is a steady hand and will get the wages off the books and replace the players possibly with better quality. At worse we drop the wage bill and finish mid table.

The alternative I think is too big of a risk on the back of a season’s lost gate revenue.

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1 hour ago, GrimsbyBoro said:

The issue as I see it is that we have a recruitment method/system that is proven to be useless at finding a manager. We have had  4 terrible appointments before Warnock. 

NW is not great but he is a steady hand and will get the wages off the books and replace the players possibly with better quality. At worse we drop the wage bill and finish mid table.

The alternative I think is too big of a risk on the back of a season’s lost gate revenue.

Get what wages off the books?  Assombalonga is leaving regardless of who the manager is.  Fletcher may not leave if he signs a new deal.  Who else is there exactly?

I've said this a few times because it's worth pointing out - Cardiff's wage bill went up with Warnock as the manager, not down.  People are talking about us signing Bolasie, Mendez-Laing, and any number of other players.  We've had lists of free transfers this summer put up on the forum.  These players aren't going to sign for nothing.  Bolasie might not want £70k a week like he's been getting at Everton, but he won't be coming in on the cheap either, if he comes here at all.  There's a thread up now for the summer transfer window with people putting up all kinds of amounts of players we have to sign.  If any of them are even close then the wage bill is unlikely to go down.  The signings we've already made this season won't have come cheaply either albeit they might not be at the same level as the likes of Ayala, Clayton, Gestede and Friend, who all left last summer.

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I'm guessing that our squad of 25 players next season will have a few young ones lets say 5 at around £4K a week, then say a core group of 14 at around £8K to £10K a week so lets call it £9K. Then there will likely be a few who are paid a little bit more say 4 around £12K then I'd guess say two on £20K for their "star status." 

I make that a weekly bill of £234,000 and annually just over £12M. I'm guessing that SG and the Accountants will work out how much of a squad wage bill they can afford and work it backwards starting with who is already here and how much are they costing us then the difference is what NW will have to negotiate and wriggle with.

There are all sorts of permutations that can be worked into that, he may prefer to gamble with padding the squad with say the likes of Wood, Wing, Spence and Coulson (or of that ilk rather than them specifically) so he can offer a bit more elsewhere, for example a Striker who is mobile and even scores goals may be deemed value for money in committing a huge dollop of that budget to. Just as an aside to me Fletcher doesn't fit that billing.

Loans where parent clubs pay a big chunk will likely have to be well executed in getting the likes of Kebano back in on loan but the waiting and the chance that you don't get who you really want could leave us short. The £12M figure is just a nominal one, it could be £15M or indeed could be much lower depending upon the real financial landscape rather than the one we are hoping for.

One or two of the younger players or lower paid players are likely on less than £4K or £9K so there may be more flexibility. When it comes to the names being bandied about like Bolasie I'm guessing that he will occupy one of the top salary berths if he came permanently. Like Fletcher I'm not sure that represents a good return on that level of investment, the question then becomes if not them then who?

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2 hours ago, Redcar Rioja said:

I'm guessing that our squad of 25 players next season will have a few young ones lets say 5 at around £4K a week, then say a core group of 14 at around £8K to £10K a week so lets call it £9K. Then there will likely be a few who are paid a little bit more say 4 around £12K then I'd guess say two on £20K for their "star status." 

I make that a weekly bill of £234,000 and annually just over £12M. I'm guessing that SG and the Accountants will work out how much of a squad wage bill they can afford and work it backwards starting with who is already here and how much are they costing us then the difference is what NW will have to negotiate and wriggle with.

I think you need to double that amount to get it closer to our wage bill mate.  I'd be surprised if we already didn't have more than 4 players on more than £12k per week, not including someone like Assombalonga.  If you include the current loan players, I reckon there would be at least 10 or close to it already on our books - Bettenelli, McNair, Hall, Howson, Saville, Fletcher, Bolasie, Akpom, Fletcher, Kebano, Roberts (for the first half of the season), Assombalonga.  I've left out Morsy but I bet he is somewhere near it as well.  Not sure about the lads who recently signed new deals, probably not at that level.  More than two of those will be above £20k as well.

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1 hour ago, Changing Times said:

I think you need to double that amount to get it closer to our wage bill mate.  I'd be surprised if we already didn't have more than 4 players on more than £12k per week, not including someone like Assombalonga.  If you include the current loan players, I reckon there would be at least 10 or close to it already on our books - Bettenelli, McNair, Hall, Howson, Saville, Fletcher, Bolasie, Akpom, Fletcher, Kebano, Roberts (for the first half of the season), Assombalonga.  I've left out Morsy but I bet he is somewhere near it as well.  Not sure about the lads who recently signed new deals, probably not at that level.  More than two of those will be above £20k as well.

I agree with all that but I'm talking about next season rather than this one and the parameters that Warnock may have to work with and in the context of some of the names and amount of new players being suggested on here generally. Not wishing to dampen the enthusiasm in any way but I think there will need to be a harsh new financial reality in football generally and with Boro in particular. 

I'm speculating that £12M is the absolute minimum wage bill but SG might be willing to find more funds. A full season without gate income at the Riverside, Bulkhaul hit by Brexit and the Hotel closed for the last 12 months will have had a significant hit.

Out of the eleven mentioned, Bettenelli, McNair, Hall, Howson, Saville, Bolasie, Akpom, Fletcher, Kebano, Roberts and Assombalonga, six of them, (Bettenelli, Fletcher, Bolasie, Kebano, Roberts and Assombalonga) won't be there and if in the case of Fletcher for example is here it won't be on the same terms.

I'm guessing that Hall is nearer the £10K a week purely from reports around the time of his transfer leaving just McNair, Howson and Saville on the bigger salaries. How much we are contributing to Bolasie, Kebano and Bettenelli's wages at the minute I have no idea but it is probably eye watering.

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I think people are getting carried away in believing NW will build a potential promotional squad next season, were as I believe he is employed to balance the books with bargain bin players for championship sustainability. 
I don’t believe NW signed to ensure promotion only then to walk away if it was achieved, because the squad would need to be rebuilt to maintain its position. Like I said I believe his role is to mop up and leave, which makes sense simply because he is not building for the following season and has nothing to prove or answer for, he trots off into retirement, after balancing the books with  a team that can reasonably compete in a league the town can afford.  
 

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9 hours ago, sanddancer said:

I think people are getting carried away in believing NW will build a potential promotional squad next season, were as I believe he is employed to balance the books with bargain bin players for championship sustainability. 
I don’t believe NW signed to ensure promotion only then to walk away if it was achieved, because the squad would need to be rebuilt to maintain its position. Like I said I believe his role is to mop up and leave, which makes sense simply because he is not building for the following season and has nothing to prove or answer for, he trots off into retirement, after balancing the books with  a team that can reasonably compete in a league the town can afford.  
 

A serious promotion push is not out of the question...but I agree its unlikely.

The club is still going to be in the same financial straits, so NW is going to be relying on more bargain basement wheeling and dealing. Not exactly the best way to assemble a promotion-winning squad.

I would like to think we can make the play-offs next season, but we'd have to be going some to win them.  If we can keep our best players fit and fresh, then maybe. Otherwise, probably not.

 

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Like most clubs there is player turnover, but i think we have had too much of it with too many managers all overlapping. The need to have a stable squad and a manager that doesn't leave after half a season is important i think, but you also need one that can come in and have an immediate reaction like we did with Karanka, and now Warnock, and then plan for the push. Nothing is guaranteed in this league, but if we can keep the team similar and retain Bolasie with a few additions i think we will be in a good starting block position to have a go. 

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18 hours ago, tmcc said:

yes, i agree and this is what i want, but what was the key the here? they kept the same manager, Farke has been in charge for 4 years now.
my argument isnt that going up and getting the money etc is bad, its that going up with a manager who's never kept a side up, has retired 3 times and will most likely reitre in the next 18 months is just a bad plan. theres no consitancy forcing a rebuild to place in another 12-18months, why wait? why not get somebody somewhat long term in now?

The whole premise of my arugment has been flipped onto the prem money and parachute payments, but all im trying to say is that we are in a perfect position to rebuild this summer (high wage players leaving etc) and hiring Warnock for another 12 month just dosent seem smart for the reasons i outlined in my orignal post.



 

 

I'm guessing Gibson's thinking is that he is happy for the club to tread water until the fallout of Covid is more or less past.

He's not thinking long term until we can get some normality back, get fans back in the stadiums and start getting increased revenue into the coffers.

For my part I'm okay with that. I agree NW can't be seen as a long-term appointment, but I think he'll fill the gap capably for another season or two (max). 

Beyond that though I would want to see someone younger, with a more modern footballing philosophy, who Gibson will be prepared to back for a good few seasons, even if we get promoted but come straight back down.

 

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