I like rhinos

[Rob 4,502]

10 hours ago, TeaCider24 said:

 

Knutsen wasn't even on the shortlist yesterday, he was 10/1 a few hours ago and he's now 5/1.

all that means though is people have been putting bets on them and they had to react and shorten the odds to reduce any liabilities for pay outs. Best odds are not always whats guaranteed to happen, its normally just what the most popular bets are. If was suspended thats more an indication than being favourite. That usually means they don't want any more exposure to that bet and they only usually one reason why, makes you wonder why they would allow insiders to bet on these things also, surely they something illegal about that lol

[RiseAgainst 3,793]

2 minutes ago, Rob said:

all that means though is people have been putting bets on them and they had to react and shorten the odds to reduce any liabilities for pay outs. Best odds are not always whats guaranteed to happen, its normally just what the most popular bets are. If was suspended thats more an indication than being favourite. That usually means they don't want any more exposure to that bet and they only usually one reason why, makes you wonder why they would allow insiders to bet on these things also, surely they something illegal about that lol

I know very little about gambling. Would it require a lot of people putting small amounts on a particular bet for bookies to suspend betting, or just one person dropping a few grand? In fact, can you even place four-figure bets with the bookies? (Sorry, I really am clueless with this stuff).

[GrimsbyBoro 1,968]

5 minutes ago, RiseAgainst said:

I know very little about gambling. Would it require a lot of people putting small amounts on a particular bet for bookies to suspend betting, or just one person dropping a few grand? In fact, can you even place four-figure bets with the bookies? (Sorry, I really am clueless with this stuff).

Next manager odds can shorted with as little as a single £50 bet. It’s really no way to judge who the manager will be until close to the time when they suspend betting.

Edit

eother multiple little bets or a suspicious big bet could temporarily suspend betting. The issue would be getting a large bet on as they adjust the odds. 

[TeaCider24 12,639]

10 minutes ago, Rob said:

all that means though is people have been putting bets on them and they had to react and shorten the odds to reduce any liabilities for pay outs. Best odds are not always whats guaranteed to happen, its normally just what the most popular bets are. If was suspended thats more an indication than being favourite. That usually means they don't want any more exposure to that bet and they only usually one reason why, makes you wonder why they would allow insiders to bet on these things also, surely they something illegal about that lol

 

I don't take bookie odds as meaning anything, I was just pointing out how quickly somebody's odds can tumble from a few decent sized bets.

Wilder is only odds on because he's the only one who's given ambiguous answers in public and there's no other information for people to use.

[atypical_boro 154]

14 minutes ago, TeaCider24 said:

 

I don't take bookie odds as meaning anything, I was just pointing out how quickly somebody's odds can tumble from a few decent sized bets.

Wilder is only odds on because he's the only one who's given ambiguous answers in public and there's no other information for people to use.

I think it takes more than a few 'decent sized' bets for someone's odds to come in to odds-on, but I agree they are far from conclusive (unless they come in to 1/10 or whatever, bearing in mind any bets placed now are only at around the evens mark so need to be large).

I heard rumours yesterday from a couple of sources who are 'credible' on paper, claiming he's told the squad he's going, and maybe a bolder person would go and lump on. I don't think I believe this though.

My guess is this hasn't been put to bed because he's still having discussions with Scott/Gibson about the summer and looking for more guarantees/bigger promotion bonus/more money/whatever. I don't think he is or isn't going yet, personally. I do believe it is up in the air and hence why no one has ruled anything out. The club will obviously say he is their man while he's under contract, and only acceptable compensation could change that anyway.

[wilsoncgp 9,283]

11 hours ago, Duvel said:

The source is supposed to be an ex player, I won't say his name but I'm sure most people will know who it is. 

If it's the same ex-player who always weighs in and has done from even as far back as when he was at the club then I'd guess at Dimi.

[TeaCider24 12,639]

5 minutes ago, atypical_boro said:

I think it takes more than a few 'decent sized' bets for someone's odds to come in to odds-on, but I agree they are far from conclusive (unless they come in to 1/10 or whatever, bearing in mind any bets placed now are only at around the evens mark so need to be large).

I heard rumours yesterday from a couple of sources who are 'credible' on paper, claiming he's told the squad he's going, and maybe a bolder person would go and lump on. I don't think I believe this though.

My guess is this hasn't been put to bed because he's still having discussions with Scott/Gibson about the summer and looking for more guarantees/bigger promotion bonus/more money/whatever. I don't think he is or isn't going yet, personally. I do believe it is up in the air and hence why no one has ruled anything out. The club will obviously say he is their man while he's under contract, and only acceptable compensation could change that anyway.

I mean Knutsen.

He's went from not even on the list to 4/1 in half a day.

[smogsterking the Inspirati 2,490]

Tbf I had some inside knowledge Woodgate was gone but it ended up being 4 months later than I had heard. I now feel like questioning that source.

[GrimsbyBoro 1,968]

Just had a quick look at Burnley and Everton’s fixtures.

Now would be the time to go into Burnley the next 4 games are decent and Everton’s are tough. 

A new manager bounce could keep them up.

[atypical_boro 154]

2 minutes ago, TeaCider24 said:

I mean Knutsen.

He's went from not even on the list to 4/1 in half a day.

ah I see

[GrimsbyBoro 1,968]

Just now, smogsterking the Inspirati said:

Tbf I had some inside knowledge Woodgate was gone but it ended up being 4 months later than I had heard. I now feel like questioning that source.

One thing that I think this often gets overloooed in the ITK debate - things change

[TeaCider24 12,639]

5 minutes ago, smogsterking the Inspirati said:

Tbf I had some inside knowledge Woodgate was gone but it ended up being 4 months later than I had heard. I now feel like questioning that source.

Surely that could be explained by the fact we locked down for months on end and he won his last match right before the league was halted.

[wilsoncgp 9,283]

1 hour ago, Duvel said:

The problem with the Wilder situation is that there's a lot of bad feeling now amongst the fans. If its a genuine misunderstanding then the club and Wilder need to come out and make it absolutely clear that he's 100% committed to us. 

If they don't this will fester, it felt like he had the whole fambase behind him a few weeks ago and that wouldn't have changed even with a few bad results. But now I don't think the fans will have a lot of patience if things start going wrong on the pitch. 

The situation can be repaired but its going to take a bit of PR work from Wilder and the club. 

The club at least have done what they like to do in these situations in that they've done that pseudo-official announcement via the Gazette about the current state of affairs. I'm pretty sure they're going to be just as coy about the whole thing officially and try to pretend it's not happening. I wouldn't expect anything else from either of them but it would be nice if Wilder just gave a straight answer.

I'm hoping given the way the club has clearly responded to the issue that they will have told him to sort this out in the next presser. We don't need the attention of calling a presser or a public statement just to handle this speculation, we could really do with him just mentioning it in the next presser or just taking the question and not shying away from it again.

[Rob 4,502]

44 minutes ago, RiseAgainst said:

I know very little about gambling. Would it require a lot of people putting small amounts on a particular bet for bookies to suspend betting, or just one person dropping a few grand? In fact, can you even place four-figure bets with the bookies? (Sorry, I really am clueless with this stuff).

could be one person, could be they have been told information by their sources, could be they just getting an uneven volume of bets heavily weighted towards this manager all of a sudden and other bets are not balancing the liabilities out so its not profitable for them to take that bet anymore. They not a single definitive answer, but when its suspended its usually either because they do not want to take the bet no more and/or the current odds for it arnt right and needs sorting out before they will take any more. It can also be because they think some insider betting has occurred or some advantage/arbitrage betting is taking place they want to stop. 

But would think its usually a good sign if it remains suspended (especially if its mirrored at competitors) that they feel its a lock. These companies are usually privy to more information than us, as well as them having all the data from everyone attempting to place bets.

[wilsoncgp 9,283]

7 minutes ago, GrimsbyBoro said:

One thing that I think this often gets overloooed in the ITK debate - things change

Indeed, like I said to @Juninho10, that Charlton debacle where everybody thought he was gone and was saying as such, everyone's sources seemed to align on the 'fact' he was gone but Gibson pulled him back.

Unless you're in constant touch with a first-party source who actually knows what's going on (put it this way, Downing has said multiple times he thought Karanka was gone after Rotherham so even players aren't the best sources) then your information can be simply a reflection of what might be the truth at any given time. There's no use fighting and defending your information when things go old quick.