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TeaCider's Summer Transfer Thread 2022 - Land of Hoppe & Glory?


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I do agree with attitude being massively important. Look at PSG vs Liverpool, I'd say similar natural ability-wise maybe even more toward PSG. But back to front every Liverpool player will run through a wall defensively, which makes them a more successful team. 

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I appreciate people are going to dismiss my information and think I'm full of ****  but thought I would post this because of mixed reaction and comments which I fully understand where you are all comi

Sorry everyone, I can't go into too much detail atm with what I have been informed so that's why I'm not responding to everyone's posts. Larsen was there again today and trained. Not sure what th

Larsen medical done today and trained with first team.  Announcement next few days , potentially tomorrow

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So going back to transfers. Did I read Karl Darlow is close and depends on Henderson joining Newcastle? The latter should be confirmed soon?

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1 hour ago, tmcc said:

Norwich paid 8 million for him, he hasn't set the world alight for them in the prem so how much do you think they will ask realistically? 5/6 million? are we gonna get a better-proven championship level for less than 5 million? I'm unsure. 
Also, doubt he's on 40K anymore as I'm sure he will have had a relegation wage clause that will have massively slashed his wages (usually at least 25%).

A quick scan of transfermarkt indicates that the top money paid for a centre back by a Championship club was around £1.5m for Ben Wilmot. I can't imagine us being willing to pay three times that for Gibson. I doubt anyone in the Championship is willing and able to stump up more than around £2m for him and I can't imagine Norwich selling him for less than £5m. (Obviously I may have missed someone.)

Even if he has had a 25% wage cut that still puts him on £30k/week which is something like 10K more than anyone else in the squad. There is a lot of smoke and mirrors about player wages but he would definitely be earning significantly more than anyone we currently have and paying, say, £5m for him would be enough to have bought all three of the most expensive CBs last season.

I agree that he would improve us but I don't think he improves us *enough* for that kind of outlay. That said, it wouldn't surprise me to see him move here; I think Wilder is looking for experienced pros and Gibson fits the bill. 

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7 minutes ago, Will said:

They were averaged for FFP purposes (as was standard across the EFL) due to Covid, and will be averaged for all calculations moving forwards. My statements remain true.

so whats that mean, that it goes more off the years before? 

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9 minutes ago, Will said:

They were averaged for FFP purposes (as was standard across the EFL) due to Covid, and will be averaged for all calculations moving forwards. My statements remain true.

Just nitpicking, but they aren't reporting on the usual 3 year period (whilst the merged Covid Seasons are about). 

So the first 2 periods you mentioned would be the same. But the 3rd and 4th are now 1 "3" year period.

So the actual reporting is 17/18 through to 20/21, so 4 years. But 19/20 and 20/21 are averaged (effectively 1 year).

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5 minutes ago, TLF10 said:

So going back to transfers. Did I read Karl Darlow is close and depends on Henderson joining Newcastle? The latter should be confirmed soon?

they probs wouldnt hold up a deal on reserve goal keeper trying to get someone else over the line as they would soon be able to source another bench warmer if needed. 

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2 minutes ago, DanFromDownSouth said:

Just nitpicking, but they aren't reporting on the usual 3 year period (whilst the merged Covid Seasons are about). 

So the first 2 periods you mentioned would be the same. But the 3rd and 4th are now 1 "3" year period.

So the actual reporting is 17/18 through to 20/21, so 4 years. But 19/20 and 20/21 are averaged (effectively 1 year).

It only makes a small difference, but it's actually in our favour (at least for the current calculating period) by bringing another year of FFP profit into the calculation.

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1 minute ago, Will said:

It only makes a small difference, but it's actually in our favour (at least for the current calculating period) by bringing another year of FFP profit into the calculation.

Exactly, the merging and averaging of those two seasons has been hugely beneficial for us. Without that, then we probably would be right upto the limits. Probably why we had the Woodgate era, cutting costs, as we went into that season not expecting to see averaged years.

I still think we'll need to be careful in the coming season, as the EFL will be judging us on; 19/20 & 20/21 (averaged), 21/22 (very likely another lost making year) and then the coming season (which will be "live"). 

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2 minutes ago, DanFromDownSouth said:

Exactly, the merging and averaging of those two seasons has been hugely beneficial for us. Without that, then we probably would be right upto the limits. Probably why we had the Woodgate era, cutting costs, as we went into that season not expecting to see averaged years.

I still think we'll need to be careful in the coming season, as the EFL will be judging us on; 19/20 & 20/21 (averaged), 21/22 (very likely another lost making year) and then the coming season (which will be "live"). 

Bringing in a big-ish fee for Spence immediately whilst being able to spread any new players over the length of the contract should help massively. If we sell an extra player as well I think we'd be comfortable.

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7 minutes ago, AnglianRed said:

That was 7 years ago...he's not going to be the same player he was back then. Simple as that. Plus he was playing in a traditional flat back 4 then. Pretty sure we always played 4-2-3-1 under Karanka. We don't know if he can adapt to playing in a back 3 and the different abilities that will require from him.

yeh but where is the evidence that he's got worse in that seven years?,

He had a solid season in the prem with us, (one of our few players who performed). Had another solid season in the championship following that getting us into the playoffs, and has had a promotion season with Norwich only a season ago, and another season in the prem this time out.  Little to no evidence that he isn't still a decent centre-back at championship level. 


 

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1 minute ago, Will said:

Bringing in a big-ish fee for Spence immediately whilst being able to spread any new players over the length of the contract should help massively. If we sell an extra player as well I think we'd be comfortable.

Agreed! Think Spence going for anything close to £15m would be very good for us, but I don't think that alone will allow us to spend as freely as some think.

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3 minutes ago, DanFromDownSouth said:

Agreed! Think Spence going for anything close to £15m would be very good for us, but I don't think that alone will allow us to spend as freely as some think.

Thankfully we are in a position, hopefully as a result of club strategy, where we have a squad with at least 5 higher value saleable assets. Like I say I hope it is a strategy by the club, keep a younger squad like we currently do and there is always the out of selling a player if we have a tough year.

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52 minutes ago, AnglianRed said:

7 more years under his belt also takes its toll physically

Not really for defenders which is why their prime years are around 28-33 or something like that. 

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1 hour ago, Bruce said:

A quick scan of transfermarkt indicates that the top money paid for a centre back by a Championship club was around £1.5m for Ben Wilmot. I can't imagine us being willing to pay three times that for Gibson. I doubt anyone in the Championship is willing and able to stump up more than around £2m for him and I can't imagine Norwich selling him for less than £5m. (Obviously I may have missed someone.)

Even if he has had a 25% wage cut that still puts him on £30k/week which is something like 10K more than anyone else in the squad. There is a lot of smoke and mirrors about player wages but he would definitely be earning significantly more than anyone we currently have and paying, say, £5m for him would be enough to have bought all three of the most expensive CBs last season.

I agree that he would improve us but I don't think he improves us *enough* for that kind of outlay. That said, it wouldn't surprise me to see him move here; I think Wilder is looking for experienced pros and Gibson fits the bill. 

ben Wilmot is only one example and not a good example either. He was and still is a young unproven player who had never played more than 25 games for any club in a season before moving to stoke. also only had 18 months left on his contract with Watford so his price was discounted.
Also, saying 5 million to buy all the championship most expensive players last season isn't a good metric to use as the only other fee I could see was Rob Atkinson aged 22 for 1.4 million (a player who has never played above league 1). And I'm sure your are aware the season transfers weren't a true reflection of normal sales and vaules due to the financial issues clubs faced coming out of covid.

if you go back 2 seasons before covid you get a better picture of fees that clubs pay for proven championship centre backs:

Aden Flint aged 30 to cardiff  for 4 million
Michael hector aged 27 to fulham for 5.3 million
pontus janssen aged 28 to Bretford for 5.5 million
Bilek aged 21 to derby for 7.3 million.

tom kalas aged 26 to bristol for 8 million
ethan pinnock aged 26 to Brentford for 3 million


these are players with a similar value and pedigree to Gibson, and based on the value and sales of these players, 5 million Gibson seems a fair valuation to make for what your getting, championship and promotion experience.

Also, we don't know the wage Gibson is on, if you have more concrete info please share it, but all I could find suggesting his wage is 40K was his Burnley contract. In terms of Norwich, all I could find was this article https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/12049267/norwich-relegation-pay-cut/ by the sun which states the average wage at Norwich is between 25-30k and that most players have a 50% wage relegation reduction clause at Norwich, " following the reduction if they are relegated, Norwich players will earn between £12,500 and £15,000 which is still above the Championship average of £10,000-a-week."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2022/04/30/pay-cuts-departures-trusting-dean-smith-relegated-norwich-city/  this article by the telegraph also back up the claim and even suggests the wage cut could be as high as 60%.

So, realistically based on this evidence we can estimate that Gibson is probably on 15k tops following relegation. Also that 5 million for him is within the normal market value for a player with this experience. finally, id point out that he only has 2 years left on his contract with Norwich, and he's not the first choice under dean smith.  I don't think it would be outlandish to suggest they might want to cash in on him at a lower price while he still has some value. Or maybe a loan to buy option for middlesbrough?


 

Edited by tmcc
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Gibson would absolutely smash it if he came back here, there's no doubt about it.

It's not like the Downing situation where we knew we weren't getting the same player back. Gibson has proved he's a superb defender at this level.

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