The Auto Slot Promotion Fight

[TLF10 5,021 6.7k]

7 minutes ago, SouthernSmoggie said:

I could see the top three pulling away over Christmas. 

No one is pulling away in this league this season imo. All teams at top end of table have shown a level of vulnerability to convince me no one going to pull away.

[Marvanelli 592 400]

This is why we needed Sunderland to beat the likes of Leeds and Sheff Utd.

Sunderland haven't got the squad or experience to last the pace. Leeds and Sheff Utd do.

It's already looking like those two are going to take some stopping at the top.

Whereas Sunderland continue to drop points, which was always going to happen looking at their underlying numbers. That's 6 games without a win for them.

[nunthorpered 2,134 2.8k]

20 minutes ago, TLF10 said:

No one is pulling away in this league this season imo. All teams at top end of table have shown a level of vulnerability to convince me no one going to pull away.

They can. It happens all the time. Amount of times football fans say ahhh theres no one running away with it then someone continues to do so havent even played 20 games yet. I've been guilty of it in the past but could easily see someone just decide to lock into that mentality and pull away

[Marvanelli 592 400]

Big week for us coming with the next 2 away games - Burnley/Leeds.

Ideally 4pts would be fantastic. 6pts would be unbelievable. But I would actually, reluctantly, take 3pts if offered right now.

Probably the toughest week we'll have all season in the league.

Sunderland are still wobbling, and don't worry me in the slightest as they're powderpuff in front of goal, whereas Sheff Utd and Leeds have the experience (manager and team) and knowhow in getting out this division of late, so I do think them 2 are the clear teams to beat and target.

We're 8pts off Sheff Utd currently, and whilst we have 2 very tough away games, so do they (West Brom away and Millwall away), so if we somehow manage to reduce that gap, then I think we give ourselves a glimmer. I do worry that 8pts will soon be into double figures though, with our inconsistency.

[Hammy legend 1,041 1.1k]

Definitely want 4 points from Burnley this month and go to Leeds and not lose, would be cracking set of results. 

[TeaCider24 14,586 19.5k]

4 points or more and we're in the conversation for automatic promotion, it'll probably be too much for us if we lose either of these, barring an unlikely collapse.

[BoroSmoggie 3,306 3.9k]

Until it’s mathematically impossible for us to get autos, then we’re still in with a shout. Far far too early to be making presumptions based on two games against some rivals. People were doing it last year with regards to the playoffs. Writing us off in Xmas and then going back and forth every week depending on results. Turns out we were still in with a chance with 2(?) games to go. 

[TeaCider24 14,586 19.5k]

45 minutes ago, BoroSmoggie said:

Until it’s mathematically impossible for us to get autos, then we’re still in with a shout. Far far too early to be making presumptions based on two games against some rivals. People were doing it last year with regards to the playoffs. Writing us off in Xmas and then going back and forth every week depending on results. Turns out we were still in with a chance with 2(?) games to go. 

We were 6 points off the play-offs at Christmas.

We were realistically out of it with 4 games remaining, and finished 6 points off the play-offs and that was with us only losing one of the last 12 matches and winning 7 of them.

That was chasing the worst of the top 6 teams as well.

We'd probably be 12 points off the top two if we lost both of these.

Obviously it's fully possible to make up that ground mathematically, but it'd take an exceptional run of form to make up that ground and an unlikely collapse of form from the teams above us.

Edited December 1 by TeaCider24

[LinoJo3 4,135 11.5k]

1 hour ago, TeaCider24 said:

We were 6 points off the play-offs at Christmas.

We were realistically out of it with 4 games remaining, and finished 6 points off the play-offs and that was with us only losing one of the last 12 matches and winning 7 of them.

That was chasing the worst of the top 6 teams as well.

We'd probably be 12 points off the top two if we lost both of these.

Obviously it's fully possible to make up that ground mathematically, but it'd take an exceptional run of form to make up that ground and an unlikely collapse of form from the teams above us.

I disagree tbh and agree with the post above, it was on and off, on and off  on a weekly basis on here last season. We looked gone and then went on a crazy run that nobody predicted or seen coming that almost got us there. Who knows what could happen this season and that is why you can’t say for sure at this stage.

It does not take a ‘collapse in form’ to lose a 6 point gap and the teams at the top have it every single season, the league can change around in a couple of weeks. Back in Carricks first season there was a genuine chance we would pass sheff utd and we bottled it but we still got the gap down to 2 points I think it was. 
 

Either way as a team in 5th place and 6 points off 2nd there is no way we can be written off for the top 2 spots yet, we may not be favourites for sure but it was only a few weeks ago people were saying play offs at best etc. 

[TeaCider24 14,586 19.5k]

21 minutes ago, LinoJo3 said:

I disagree tbh and agree with the post above, it was on and off, on and off  on a weekly basis on here last season. We looked gone and then went on a crazy run that nobody predicted or seen coming that almost got us there. Who knows what could happen this season and that is why you can’t say for sure at this stage.

It does not take a ‘collapse in form’ to lose a 6 point gap and the teams at the top have it every single season, the league can change around in a couple of weeks. Back in Carricks first season there was a genuine chance we would pass sheff utd and we bottled it but we still got the gap down to 2 points I think it was. 
 

Either way as a team in 5th place and 6 points off 2nd there is no way we can be written off for the top 2 spots yet, we may not be favourites for sure but it was only a few weeks ago people were saying play offs at best etc. 

I'm not on about a 6 point gap?

I'm on about a 12 point gap if we lost the next two to the teams above us.

I also didn't say it would be impossible to close it, we'd just become heavy outsiders.

With Sheffield United, the closest we got was 4 points having played a game more, and that was a few days after beating them, whilst we were on a stunning run of form, we finished 16 points behind them.

Right now we're 100% in the race and a few results puts us within touching distance, if not actually in the top 2.

Losing both games changes that dynamic.

Edited December 1 by TeaCider24

[LinoJo3 4,135 11.5k]

1 hour ago, TeaCider24 said:

I'm not on about a 6 point gap?

I'm on about a 12 point gap if we lost the next two to the teams above us.

I also didn't say it would be impossible to close it, we'd just become heavy outsiders.

With Sheffield United, the closest we got was 4 points having played a game more, and that was a few days after beating them, whilst we were on a stunning run of form, we finished 16 points behind them.

Right now we're 100% in the race and a few results puts us within touching distance, if not actually in the top 2.

Losing both games changes that dynamic.

Yes of course that would change the dynamic but the dynamic will change again and again and again between then and may. Going back to that sheff Utd season Wernt they multiples of points clear of top 2 at one time, There was even a joke on this forum about their fans melting down around that time. 

[TeaCider24 14,586 19.5k]

10 minutes ago, LinoJo3 said:

Yes of course that would change the dynamic but the dynamic will change again and again and again between then and may. Going back to that sheff Utd season Wernt they multiples of points clear of top 2 at one time, There was even a joke on this forum about their fans melting down around that time. 

Yeah, but I'm not getting how that's any different to what I said in the first place and you disagreed with me over it.

We'd need to be near faultless for the rest of the season and hope for the teams above us to cock up.

In Carricks first season, we went on a stunning run of form and Sheffield United went on a really bad run, that's the only reason it even briefly looked close, and even that was with us having played a game more, and we still didn't end making up the ground.

 

[LinoJo3 4,135 11.5k]

34 minutes ago, TeaCider24 said:

Yeah, but I'm not getting how that's any different to what I said in the first place and you disagreed with me over it.

We'd need to be near faultless for the rest of the season and hope for the teams above us to cock up.

In Carricks first season, we went on a stunning run of form and Sheffield United went on a really bad run, that's the only reason it even briefly looked close, and even that was with us having played a game more, and we still didn't end making up the ground.

 

It’s this bit I have the issue with, while yes it’s technically true you just seem to be over estimating other teams and under estimating us as you’re assuming those 3 teams are gonna be faultless between now and the end of the season, but they won’t be. 
 

Burnley and Leeds have only won 1 more game than us, they’re higher because they’ve picked up draws where we’ve capitulated. Burnley couldn’t beat QPR, were beaten by millwall.

All we have to do is stay in and around the top 2 and try to take advantage of any slip ups they make and recover from our own slip ups. 

[Erimus 63 515 3.1k]

12 hours ago, TeaCider24 said:

Yeah, but I'm not getting how that's any different to what I said in the first place and you disagreed with me over it.

We'd need to be near faultless for the rest of the season and hope for the teams above us to cock up.

In Carricks first season, we went on a stunning run of form and Sheffield United went on a really bad run, that's the only reason it even briefly looked close, and even that was with us having played a game more, and we still didn't end making up the ground.

 

You're looking into the future with a negative outlook. Best to take it one game at a time.

[Humpty 4,085 9.7k]

automatic promotion is long gone in my opinion.