The Play-off Slots Promotion Fight

[Erimus74 4,725 4.9k]

Bristol City at home to Norwich on friday night

[Erimus74 4,725 4.9k]

22 hours ago, MarkT73 said:

Looking at the next 2 games (I know what will typically happen) IF we win both we will be solidly in the top 6 (probably) looking at the fixtures WBA Cov and BCFC have 

Some solid performances last night, get a few back and others up to that level too ...

Do I think we could compete v Burnley / Mackems? I do. Sunderland particularly are slipping up a bit

It's the hope that .......

I think the top 4 are taking over from the the teams between 5th & 9th whereas they're now falling over themselves to allow their rivals an advantage, who are not taking it up

[Bruce 2,524 2.1k]

3 minutes ago, Erimus74 said:

I think the top 4 are taking over from the the teams between 5th & 9th whereas they're now falling over themselves to allow their rivals an advantage, who are not taking it up

Blackburn have had their traditional post-January slump and will presumably continue sinking down.

Coventry, Bristol City and WBA are in decent form at the moment, being 1st, 7th and 8th respectively in the form table over the last 5 games. Bristol City are unbeaten in their last 7 games, WBA in their last 5 but they have both struggled to turn draws into wins.

If WBA & Bristol City continue in their current form, then they'll end up on around 74 and 72 points respectively. Even if Coventry's results slip back to under 2 points per game, odds are that they'll end up on 72+ points meaning we need something like 20 points from our last 9 games to have a chance of sneaking into 6th. That is beyond anything we've managed in the last two years. 

As it stands Coventry are in automatic promotion form while Bristol City and WBA are in playoff form. Watford are also in automatic promotion form with 10 points from the last 5 games and at just 1 point behind us have a good chance of overtaking us if they keep at that level.

To hit the playoffs, we have to perform at the peak of what Carrick has managed in the last two years while 3 of Coventry, Bristol city, WBA and Watford have lose form over the final 9 games. not *impossible* but certainly unlikely. This time of the season, that 3 point gap towards the top of the table is a lot bigger than it looks.

I tend to think that Bristol City and Watford will run out of gas. Coventry *could* implode: they have 3 really tough games coming up. Mowbray's teams have a habit of collapsing but right now that doesn't seem very likely and they have a pretty kind looking final 9 games.

[Marz 185 1.7k]

And even after all that Bruce, you'd still back whoever fails to finish in the top 2 to win the playoffs. 

It would be absolutely mental if we got promoted from this point, imagine the celebrations from Borges though.

[Tobermory 192 265]

39 minutes ago, Bruce said:

Blackburn have had their traditional post-January slump and will presumably continue sinking down.

Coventry, Bristol City and WBA are in decent form at the moment, being 1st, 7th and 8th respectively in the form table over the last 5 games. Bristol City are unbeaten in their last 7 games, WBA in their last 5 but they have both struggled to turn draws into wins.

If WBA & Bristol City continue in their current form, then they'll end up on around 74 and 72 points respectively. Even if Coventry's results slip back to under 2 points per game, odds are that they'll end up on 72+ points meaning we need something like 20 points from our last 9 games to have a chance of sneaking into 6th. That is beyond anything we've managed in the last two years. 

As it stands Coventry are in automatic promotion form while Bristol City and WBA are in playoff form. Watford are also in automatic promotion form with 10 points from the last 5 games and at just 1 point behind us have a good chance of overtaking us if they keep at that level.

To hit the playoffs, we have to perform at the peak of what Carrick has managed in the last two years while 3 of Coventry, Bristol city, WBA and Watford have lose form over the final 9 games. not *impossible* but certainly unlikely. This time of the season, that 3 point gap towards the top of the table is a lot bigger than it looks.

I tend to think that Bristol City and Watford will run out of gas. Coventry *could* implode: they have 3 really tough games coming up. Mowbray's teams have a habit of collapsing but right now that doesn't seem very likely and they have a pretty kind looking final 9 games.

Coventry's next 3 games are against Sunderland, Sheffield Utd, and Burnley - hard to see them winning all three of those.  

[Erimus74 4,725 4.9k]

25 minutes ago, Marz said:

And even after all that Bruce, you'd still back whoever fails to finish in the top 2 to win the playoffs. 

It would be absolutely mental if we got promoted from this point, imagine the celebrations from Borges though.

Now that would be something to witness, he's turning into a cult hero

[Bruce 2,524 2.1k]

20 minutes ago, Tobermory said:

Coventry's next 3 games are against Sunderland, Sheffield Utd, and Burnley - hard to see them winning all three of those.  

Yeah, it could break them. So much of football at any time but especially at this point is about momentum. If they come away wit, say, just 1 point from those three games then it'll be a real test for them to recover. Coventry at this point are reminding me our first season with Carrick. Taking over a good team that had lost its way, going on a great run but, eventually, falling short. Lampard has more experience than Carrick so I would expect them to end the season in 5th or 6th but I don't see them getting promoted.

[Boro 86 698 2.6k]

Us and West Brom to make the playoffs. After that anything can happen but I expect the other two to be Sheffield and Sunderland. 
 

If by then we have a fit squad ( yes I know that sounds implausible) then I wouldn’t fear any of them. 
 

The international break is coming at just the right time for us for once. Let’s pray we can heal some of our wounded during it.

[TeaCider24 16,744 21.9k]

Coventry have been stumbling recently even in their 2 most recent wins.

Oxford equalised twice, Stoke came back from 2 goals down.

Derby just beat them comfortably.

4 of their next 6 games are against the current top 6, I think there's a decent chance they slip out of the play-offs this weekend and they might not get back in.

But then Sunderland effectively have nothing to play for anymore, so who knows.

[Erimus74 4,725 4.9k]

Could be a big final fixture of the season with us at Coventry, winner takes all, even GD could play a big part in it

There I go again getting carried away, but in this uncertain Championship season & with us being poor & losing 14 games we still have a really good chance of finishing 5th, saying that, we could easily finish 10th 

[boro-unger 4,471 17.7k]

24 minutes ago, TeaCider24 said:

 

But then Sunderland effectively have nothing to play for anymore, so who knows.

They might end up like we did a couple of seasons ago in the play offs where we'd confirmed play off status early and were just turning up and having a kick about for the last couple of games. Unfortunately the lack of momentum then carried on into the play offs v Coventry...

[TeaCider24 16,744 21.9k]

Just now, boro-unger said:

They might end up like we did a couple of seasons ago in the play offs where we'd confirmed play off status early and were just turning up and having a kick about for the last couple of games. Unfortunately the lack of momentum then carried on into the play offs v Coventry...

That's the dream.

Newcastle lose on Sunday, Sunderland knocked out in the play-off semis, would only need a Boro promotion to make it a perfect end to the season.

[Downsouth 7,794 38.4k]

1 hour ago, Tobermory said:

Coventry's next 3 games are against Sunderland, Sheffield Utd, and Burnley - hard to see them winning all three of those.  

But last one against us which they will look forward to

[Downsouth 7,794 38.4k]

40 minutes ago, Boro 86 said:

Us and West Brom to make the playoffs. After that anything can happen but I expect the other two to be Sheffield and Sunderland. 
 

If by then we have a fit squad ( yes I know that sounds implausible) then I wouldn’t fear any of them. 
 

The international break is coming at just the right time for us for once. Let’s pray we can heal some of our wounded during it.

I am not praying Gary because it is clear that God is no Boro supporter!

[Humpty 4,560 10.1k]

It's like some of you have never followed Boro before 🫣😉