Would like to see Sarmiento come in for this one and go back to the 4222 and drop either ayling or fry don’t mind which one probably drop fry because Swansea won’t go long as much and ayling’s a lot better on the ball and closing down (think you probably have him quite tight with Vipotnik) would also go munroe assuming that Targett can’t play because he seems tidier on the ball than Bangura

Brynn

Brittain Ayling Malanda munroe

Browne Morris

Mcgree sarmiento

Strelec Conway

Want to see Sarmiento on his preferred side because he seems to be playing mostly to the right when he has played (although ineffective completely so far wherever he’s played lol) and think mcgree would be fine either side because he drifts all over anyway and Browne and Brittain will attack that side when he does

Sarmiento is a dicky dancer who flatters to deceive and has no end product but you're right. He'll probably start, and I suspect he'll come in for Mcgree. Bangura will start on the left. As good as Targett has been, I actually think Bangura is a better fit for the way we want to play.

The absence of Hackney, Castledine and Whitaker will mean he'll stick with a back five.

I fear that we might see Gilbert in midfield for either Browne or Morris. I also think he might play Edmondson. Not that he should of course; I just think he might.

Will we see Sene or Cruz given a chance? I hope we do because I can't see what we have to lose. When we're struggling to score goals, it seems odd that he'll want to stick with the same team. You surely have to change it at some point.

Not overly optimistic, and I think Vipotnik will be difficult to stop.

7 minutes ago, Kieran said:

Would like to see Sarmiento come in for this one and go back to the 4222 and drop either ayling or fry don’t mind which one probably drop fry because Swansea won’t go long as much and ayling’s a lot better on the ball and closing down (think you probably have him quite tight with Vipotnik) would also go munroe assuming that Targett can’t play because he seems tidier on the ball than Bangura

Brynn

Brittain Ayling Malanda munroe

Browne Morris

Mcgree sarmiento

Strelec Conway

Want to see Sarmiento on his preferred side because he seems to be playing mostly to the right when he has played (although ineffective completely so far wherever he’s played lol) and think mcgree would be fine either side because he drifts all over anyway and Browne and Brittain will attack that side when he does

I’d also like to see some positional changes tbh, I’ve always thought could we not try Conway on the right in the Forrs position, Sarmiento could do Conways left sided role and obviously keep McGree and Strelec where they are.

Reasons for this are Brittain is kind of self proficient on the right and provides good width so Conway would automatically be more central, also Whittaker got goals from that position arriving late into the box or having acres of space to run into. Then you also have Sarmiento in his natural position who could even provide more threat than Conway as he’s better 1v1 with defenders.

Only issue is if him and Strelec would get in the way of each other but that could be worked on surely.

Idk I feel it’s worth a try and has a decent risk reward ratio, at worst we probably just struggle to score again as it doesn’t really disrupt things to much. At best maybe we stumble upon a formula that works and go on another run for the last few games.

15 minutes ago, LinoJo3 said:

I’d also like to see some positional changes tbh, I’ve always thought could we not try Conway on the right in the Forrs position, Sarmiento could do Conways left sided role and obviously keep McGree and Strelec where they are.

Reasons for this are Brittain is kind of self proficient on the right and provides good width so Conway would automatically be more central, also Whittaker got goals from that position arriving late into the box or having acres of space to run into. Then you also have Sarmiento in his natural position who could even provide more threat than Conway as he’s better 1v1 with defenders.

Only issue is if him and Strelec would get in the way of each other but that could be worked on surely.

Idk I feel it’s worth a try and has a decent risk reward ratio, at worst we probably just struggle to score again as it doesn’t really disrupt things to much. At best maybe we stumble upon a formula that works and go on another run for the last few games.

I like your thinking. Certainly worth a try. I actually think Strelec, though, would be better on the right. And then coming in on his left like Whitaker does or like Bamford used to do when he played out on the right for us. I actually don't think Strelec is a centre forward. That's probably more his natural position anyway, playing off a striker rather than as the striker.

Funny problem is I wouldn't play Conway in the middle either. In fact, I don't know who I'd play there. Maybe we don't play anyone, we just play with a false nine. Maybe that's the answer. If you don't have centre forwards that can score goals then don't play with one.

36 minutes ago, MillwallFan said:

You do realise that quality defending (and I include goalkeepers in this) is also an art form, just as it is having a quality striker who nets you a goal every other game? Defenders can win you games just as much as your front men can.

I’ve seen us (both home and away) score a goal in the 5th minute and, through quality, stout defending, hang on to the end of the game to win 1-0. Yes, it’s not always pretty when that happens, but in some games (as it was against you on Good Friday) the opposition are on fire and have numerous shots on goal and all you can do is do your best to stop them scoring.

I’d like to know what you actually mean by our defending being “laughable?” Can you elaborate? In the 1st half a number of our players (and not only our defenders) threw their bodies into the line of fire to keep Boro shots from hitting their target. Isn’t that what opposition players are meant to do - stop the other team from scoring, regardless of what position they play on the pitch?

Millwall fans absolute hate Ayling as a player because he’s usually so good (and particularly against us) but when faced with Coburn, what did he do? He allowed Coburn to cut inside and hit the ball with his favoured right foot and we were suddenly 2-1 up. Wouldn’t the Boro fans have preferred Ayling to have just clattered into Coburn instead, thereby giving away a free kick outside the box which, when taken, we probably wouldn’t have scored with?

That’s the sort of thing our CB’s, Cooper and Taylor would have done. Nullify the initial threat, then regroup as a team and defend the free kick together as a team and hope nothing comes of it.

Because you offer teams far too many opportunities. The fact you're relying on last ditch blocks, challenges, tackles just showcases that the level of defending in the first place isn't great.

We created 5 Big Chances against you and 4 of them came in the first half in which we pretty much ripped you to shreds time and time again. Even your manager confirmed that. Going in at HT we should've put the game to bed....our poor finishing (which is a regular theme of us over the last month or so) cost us the victory and let you's back into the game.

'Boro (A) - 5 Big Chances conceded

Ipswich (A) - 2 Big Chances conceded

Blackburn (H) - 4 Big Chances conceded

Derby (H) - 2 Big Chances conceded

Hull (A) - 3 Big Chances conceded

These numbers aren't great and if that continues, then you're giving yourself a mountain to climb - or relying heavily on teams missing their chances...

As for Ayling. I have been quite vocal on both boards at being worried we've extended his contract when I don't believe we should have. He's been decent for us at times this season, but he has far too many big mistakes in him at big moments. Cov (A), Millwall (H) to name a few, and he's turning 35 soon and he's only going to get worse...

If you think gifting teams 3xG whilst only creating 0.7xG is sustainable in trying to achieve promotion, then good luck. We've seen on a regular basis, you can't outrun xG - Villa are a big example of this, this season...

1 minute ago, Marvanelli said:

Because you offer teams far too many opportunities. The fact you're relying on last ditch blocks, challenges, tackles just showcases that the level of defending in the first place isn't great.

We created 5 Big Chances against you and 4 of them came in the first half in which we pretty much ripped you to shreds time and time again. Even your manager confirmed that. Going in at HT we should've put the game to bed....our poor finishing (which is a regular theme of us over the last month or so) cost us the victory and let you's back into the game.

'Boro (A) - 5 Big Chances conceded

Ipswich (A) - 2 Big Chances conceded

Blackburn (H) - 4 Big Chances conceded

Derby (H) - 2 Big Chances conceded

Hull (A) - 3 Big Chances conceded

These numbers aren't great and if that continues, then you're giving yourself a mountain to climb - or relying heavily on teams missing their chances...

As for Ayling. I have been quite vocal on both boards at being worried we've extended his contract when I don't believe we should have. He's been decent for us at times this season, but he has far too many big mistakes in him at big moments. Cov (A), Millwall (H) to name a few, and he's turning 35 soon and he's only going to get worse...

If you think gifting teams 3xG whilst only creating 0.7xG is sustainable in trying to achieve promotion, then good luck. We've seen on a regular basis, you can't outrun xG - Villa are a big example of this, this season...

Whilst I don't disagree with what you've said xG must be one of the most overrated stats. XG doesn't win games; just putting the ball in the back of the net does. And whilst in the long run you can't outrun XG, I think if Millwall just managed to do so for the next six games, they'll be promoted. Us, in the meantime, who do have extremely good XG, are going to be lucky if we can get out the playoffs.

5 minutes ago, Pongoe said:

Whilst I don't disagree with what you've said xG must be one of the most overrated stats. XG doesn't win games; just putting the ball in the back of the net does. And whilst in the long run you can't outrun XG, I think if Millwall just managed to do so for the next six games, they'll be promoted. Us, in the meantime, who do have extremely good XG, are going to be lucky if we can get out the playoffs.

Oh definitely. With only 6 games to go, then they could continue getting the rub of the green and fall over the line.

History would say it's unlikely and they'd fall at the final hurdle (if they continue defending poorly like they've done and continue to be out stat'd)...but they might well do it. xG, stats, BC's can all favour the opponents, but the goals scored are what counts...not xG, SoT, BC's etc.

Interestingly, the bookies still have us more fav's for promotion than Millwall..even though they have it in their hands and we still have a very difficult trip to Portman Road....but they remove the emotion and use data to price up the markets....

They also take into account underlying data, stats, remaining fixtures, amongst much more.

30 minutes ago, Pongoe said:

I like your thinking. Certainly worth a try. I actually think Strelec, though, would be better on the right. And then coming in on his left like Whitaker does or like Bamford used to do when he played out on the right for us. I actually don't think Strelec is a centre forward. That's probably more his natural position anyway, playing off a striker rather than as the striker.

Funny problem is I wouldn't play Conway in the middle either. In fact, I don't know who I'd play there. Maybe we don't play anyone, we just play with a false nine. Maybe that's the answer. If you don't have centre forwards that can score goals then don't play with one.

Strelec basically does play the right sided role already.

We could do something totally crazy and try Strelec in Whittakers role, Conway as the more central striker and Sarmiento in Conways role, which may end up with Strelec getting similar chances to what Whittaker was getting, we would certainly have a different dynamic doing this and having more forwards on the pitch would mean more chance of a chance falling to a forward. The only issue is I think Strelec would end up too wide too often and I think Conway would be better suited to that.

I simply cannot see us winning. I feel like since Coventry I’ve watched god knows how many hours of us dominating the ball around opponents penalty boxes without scoring and not winning.

26 minutes ago, Whoppy said:

I simply cannot see us winning. I feel like since Coventry I’ve watched god knows how many hours of us dominating the ball around opponents penalty boxes without scoring and not winning.

It’s got to change one day. Tomorrow is that day

5 minutes ago, PayeroAndParty said:

It’s got to change one day. Tomorrow is that day

I wouldn’t have blind faith in it, something would have to change personnel or better decision making or maybe second goal going in off someone’s backside to give us the cushion we need to build confidence. Let’s put it this way we go there have thirty shots again and score one or none I’d be seriously considering getting one against pompey and then doing low block and sitting in it grinding it out rather than attempting a second. We need a win from somewhere at home, who cares how at this point.

Edited April 5Apr 5 by thomas

29 minutes ago, thomas said:

I wouldn’t have blind faith in it, something would have to change personnel or better decision making or maybe second goal going in off someone’s backside to give us the cushion we need to build confidence. Let’s put it this way we go there have thirty shots again and score one or none I’d be seriously considering getting one against pompey and then doing low block and sitting in it grinding it out rather than attempting a second. We need a win from somewhere at home, who cares how at this point.

Maybe, or maybe now we’re not in “pole position” it loosens us up? And we go back to qpr Preston qpr away game kind of form. Here’s hoping 🤝

1 hour ago, PayeroAndParty said:

Maybe, or maybe now we’re not in “pole position” it loosens us up? And we go back to qpr Preston qpr away game kind of form. Here’s hoping 🤝

1 hour ago, Nobby Barnes said:

Faux hope, that's all we've got left now. Formation changes, shuffling a tired pack. I can't see where the next win is coming from, possibly another draw today. The next win for the club comes with an injection of cash via the play-offs and the sale of Hackney.

I hope that Vipotnik didn't see that if he passes it to the left of Brynn that he'll be able to watch it trickle into the corner.