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So during the EUROs I was using Infogol to track the xG of our games and I went and had a look and they do a decent job of modelling the Championship too!

https://www.infogol.net/en/leagues/english-football-league-championship-2021-22-slopegraph/344

image.png.644eec235f14b521837092b8158926b8.png

It's a bit of a horrible web to read but basically, the middle dot is where each team actually is in the table. On the left, I believe is the position of each team were you just to take results from the xG of each team as if they were actual goals. On the right is a predicted result based on past results and points accrued with a simulation of the rest of the matches.

So right now, if every team's matches would be decided by xG, we'd be sat in 6th with 12 points.

Worth pointing out that this isn't a great way of predicting the actual table going on the last few seasons but it's interesting to see who is essentially creating the most chances per game and likely the difference draws make. Just going on last year, the finished xG table would have had Brentford winning the league, Norwich 2nd, us facing Watford in the play-offs, with Bournemouth playing 5th placed Blackburn who actually finished 15th. Rotherham and Sheffield Wednesday would have survived with Huddersfield and bottom placed Bristol City joining Wycombe in League One.

One thing it has managed to do pretty convincingly is predict the top 3 teams, though not always in the right order. In 16/17, it got Newcastle and Brighton spot on. 17/18, it got Wolves and Cardiff spot on. 18/19, Leeds were swapped with Norwich but otherwise correct. 19/20, Leeds spot on winners with West Brom and Brentford swapped round and last year, Brentford again pushed down Norwich and Watford into 2nd and 3rd respectively in the xG table.

Interestingly, in 15/16, it got us spot on as finishing 2nd. But their final table had Hull finishing top instead of 4th (and eventual play-off winners) with Burnley finishing 5th.

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18 minutes ago, wilsoncgp said:

So during the EUROs I was using Infogol to track the xG of our games and I went and had a look and they do a decent job of modelling the Championship too!

https://www.infogol.net/en/leagues/english-football-league-championship-2021-22-slopegraph/344

image.png.644eec235f14b521837092b8158926b8.png

It's a bit of a horrible web to read but basically, the middle dot is where each team actually is in the table. On the left, I believe is the position of each team were you just to take results from the xG of each team as if they were actual goals. On the right is a predicted result based on past results and points accrued with a simulation of the rest of the matches.

So right now, if every team's matches would be decided by xG, we'd be sat in 6th with 12 points.

Worth pointing out that this isn't a great way of predicting the actual table going on the last few seasons but it's interesting to see who is essentially creating the most chances per game and likely the difference draws make. Just going on last year, the finished xG table would have had Brentford winning the league, Norwich 2nd, us facing Watford in the play-offs, with Bournemouth playing 5th placed Blackburn who actually finished 15th. Rotherham and Sheffield Wednesday would have survived with Huddersfield and bottom placed Bristol City joining Wycombe in League One.

One thing it has managed to do pretty convincingly is predict the top 3 teams, though not always in the right order. In 16/17, it got Newcastle and Brighton spot on. 17/18, it got Wolves and Cardiff spot on. 18/19, Leeds were swapped with Norwich but otherwise correct. 19/20, Leeds spot on winners with West Brom and Brentford swapped round and last year, Brentford again pushed down Norwich and Watford into 2nd and 3rd respectively in the xG table.

Interestingly, in 15/16, it got us spot on as finishing 2nd. But their final table had Hull finishing top instead of 4th (and eventual play-off winners) with Burnley finishing 5th.

Just give them a ring there @wilsoncgpand tell them that we are going up as champions.

Thanks mate 💪

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17 hours ago, wilsoncgp said:

So during the EUROs I was using Infogol to track the xG of our games and I went and had a look and they do a decent job of modelling the Championship too!

https://www.infogol.net/en/leagues/english-football-league-championship-2021-22-slopegraph/344

image.png.644eec235f14b521837092b8158926b8.png

It's a bit of a horrible web to read but basically, the middle dot is where each team actually is in the table. On the left, I believe is the position of each team were you just to take results from the xG of each team as if they were actual goals. On the right is a predicted result based on past results and points accrued with a simulation of the rest of the matches.

So right now, if every team's matches would be decided by xG, we'd be sat in 6th with 12 points.

Worth pointing out that this isn't a great way of predicting the actual table going on the last few seasons but it's interesting to see who is essentially creating the most chances per game and likely the difference draws make. Just going on last year, the finished xG table would have had Brentford winning the league, Norwich 2nd, us facing Watford in the play-offs, with Bournemouth playing 5th placed Blackburn who actually finished 15th. Rotherham and Sheffield Wednesday would have survived with Huddersfield and bottom placed Bristol City joining Wycombe in League One.

One thing it has managed to do pretty convincingly is predict the top 3 teams, though not always in the right order. In 16/17, it got Newcastle and Brighton spot on. 17/18, it got Wolves and Cardiff spot on. 18/19, Leeds were swapped with Norwich but otherwise correct. 19/20, Leeds spot on winners with West Brom and Brentford swapped round and last year, Brentford again pushed down Norwich and Watford into 2nd and 3rd respectively in the xG table.

Interestingly, in 15/16, it got us spot on as finishing 2nd. But their final table had Hull finishing top instead of 4th (and eventual play-off winners) with Burnley finishing 5th.

So, if this is anything like accurate, we'll agonisingly miss out on the play-offs again? ☹️

Be interesting to see what the table looks like halfway through the season.

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3 hours ago, AnglianRed said:

So, if this is anything like accurate, we'll agonisingly miss out on the play-offs again? ☹️

Be interesting to see what the table looks like halfway through the season.

If it's anything to go by we need to up the chances created and be a bit more bold as it shows that teams with xG usually finish high up the league.

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43 minutes ago, Smogzilla said:

Straight into it

Seems everyone is there bar the two new lads. Bar Sammy and Browne obviously.

Really hope we get an update on Ameobi. Just a timescale would be nice.

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19 minutes ago, TLF10 said:

Seems everyone is there bar the two new lads. Bar Sammy and Browne obviously.

Really hope we get an update on Ameobi. Just a timescale would be nice.

Assume no fisher either? Did we ever get an update on what the craic is with him?

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10 minutes ago, BearSmog said:

What little I saw of Payero he definitely looks a little lost /off the pace... 

Don't think he looked any different to anyone else really. Not a cause for concern, at least.

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48 minutes ago, Neverbefore said:

Assume no fisher either? Did we ever get an update on what the craic is with him?

He is out for season club confirm i think a while back but did not confirm what with

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