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On 10/24/2021 at 9:28 PM, GrimsbyBoro said:

Has this weekends Spence report come in?

Or does it just cover selected highlights? 

Not that it matters I suppose but apparently another motm performance tonight.  Head and shoulders above everyone was one comment I read.  Another was that he was a negative tonight because he's pricing Forest out of being able to sign him. 

'DJ Ed man of the match for me, absolute Cafu-esque performance tonight, he bombed forwarded and defended in equal measure, and terrified the blunts defenders.'

'Negatives. Spence is pricing us out of us buying him game by game. Brilliant performance and the driving force of this side atm'

'Really enjoyable watch. Spence superb.'

'Signing Spence is an absolute must'

'Spence man of the match by a mile.'

'Spence was miles ahead of anyone else on the pitch tonight.'

'Djed Spence was immense'

 

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18 hours ago, Changing Times said:

Not that it matters I suppose but apparently another motm performance tonight.  Head and shoulders above everyone was one comment I read.  Another was that he was a negative tonight because he's pricing Forest out of being able to sign him. 

'DJ Ed man of the match for me, absolute Cafu-esque performance tonight, he bombed forwarded and defended in equal measure, and terrified the blunts defenders.'

'Negatives. Spence is pricing us out of us buying him game by game. Brilliant performance and the driving force of this side atm'

'Really enjoyable watch. Spence superb.'

'Signing Spence is an absolute must'

'Spence man of the match by a mile.'

'Spence was miles ahead of anyone else on the pitch tonight.'

'Djed Spence was immense'

 

Good.  I don't think there's any chance of him coming back here so the best thing we can hope for is his performances are getting noticed by Wolves, West Ham, Rangers and the others that were supposedly interested.

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2 minutes ago, Hendrie_7 said:

Good.  I don't think there's any chance of him coming back here so the best thing we can hope for is his performances are getting noticed by Wolves, West Ham, Rangers and the others that were supposedly interested.

Yeah, that's my take on it as well.  There will definitely people watching him that's for sure.

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I was bored and reading some stuff on the other forum, well I was reading some stuff on the other forum, and then later I was bored so I thought I'd follow Newy and look at some comparisons between this season and previous seasons, to get a flavour of how we stack up with previous teams.

After 16 games we have 21 points, 6 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats  We have 18 goals for and 18 against.  We are in 14th place.

Last season we had 24 points with 6 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats.  16 goals for, 11 against.  We were in 10th place.

Under Woodgate 13 points, 2 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats.  13 goals for, 21 against.  We were 22nd.

Pulis 2018/19 - 28 points, 7 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, 17 goals for 8 against.  We were 4th.

Monk 2017/18 - 26 points, 7 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, 21 goals for 13 against, We were 5th.

Karanka 2015/16 - 30 points, 9 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, 24 goals for, 12 against.  We were 2nd.

Karanka 2014/15 - 30 points, 9 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, 26 goals for, 12 against, We were 4th.

Mowbray 2013/14 - 16 points, 3 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, 26 goals for, 26 against, We were 19th.

Mowbray 2012/13 - 32 points 10 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, 28 goals for, 20 against, We were 2nd.

Mowbray 2011/12 - 30 points, 8 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, 20 goals for, 12 against.  We were 3rd.

Strachan 2010/11 - 17 points, 5 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, 17 goals for, 25 against.  We were 19th.

Southgate 2009/10 - 24 points 7 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, 25 goals for, 17 against.  We were 10th.

Those final two seasons in the list had a little bit of the following manager involved as well, as we sacked Southgate and Strachan around this time of both seasons.

So what can we say then looking at the above?  In the last 12 years, since we were relegated in 2009, we have only started 3 seasons worse than this season - 1 under Strachan, 1 under Mowbray, 1 under Woodgate.  All three managers were sacked during those seasons, and Strachan and Mowbray were sacked at this point in the season as well as it happens.

Only Strachan started with more defeats (9).  Woodgate was level on 7.  

Only Strachan, Mowbray (once) and Woodgate started with fewer wins.

Only Strachan, Woodgate, and Pulis started with fewer goals scored.

Only Strachan, Mowbray (twice), and Woodgate started with more goals conceded.

Only Strachan and Woodgate started with a worse goal difference.

The only positive comparisons we can make with previous seasons are with Strachan, Woodgate, and the season that Mowbray was sacked.  Every other season, under whoever was the manager, even including Warnock last season, was a better start to the season than this one.

It's strange for me to read anyone trying to compare us to the 2014/15 season, which is happening over on FMTTM for some reason.  9 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats and 30 points versus 6 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats 21 points.  26 goals for, 12 against, versus 18 goals for 18 goals against.  9 points difference in only 16 games is actually huge.  It's essentially about 25 points difference over a 46 game season.  We finished that season on 85 points, so that would equate to us finishing on about 60 points, which is precisely what we are on course to do now.  60 points, even in this season, won't be enough to make the play offs.  We'd be 10/15 points short, which obviously is what we are on course to be as it stands. 

The fact that there are really only 3 good sides in the division gives us some hope but our own form would still have to pick up for it to make any difference.  We need about 51 points to make the play offs in the final 30 games in all likelihood.  To do that means 1.7 points per game for the rest of the season.  We've only managed that for one small period under Warnock as far as I can see - the very start of last season when we got 16 points from the first 9 games.  I don't think we've managed it over more than a handful of games all the time he's been here.  Indeed, we are about 1.3 points per game overall under him.  It's quite a big turnaround required even if right now we are only 4 points from the play offs.

 

 

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@Changing Times

Interesting to see that the main difference between this season and last season is that we were harder to beat: 3 draws replacing 3 defeats and conceding 7 fewer goals. Very much a classic Warnock team but still on only 24 points. Under 20 points at this stage of the season clearly gets you sacked. 30 points or over puts you on track for the playoffs. Anywhere in between is a limbo zone.

 

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11 hours ago, Changing Times said:

I was bored and reading some stuff on the other forum, well I was reading some stuff on the other forum, and then later I was bored so I thought I'd follow Newy and look at some comparisons between this season and previous seasons, to get a flavour of how we stack up with previous teams.

After 16 games we have 21 points, 6 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats  We have 18 goals for and 18 against.  We are in 14th place.

Last season we had 24 points with 6 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats.  16 goals for, 11 against.  We were in 10th place.

Under Woodgate 13 points, 2 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats.  13 goals for, 21 against.  We were 22nd.

Pulis 2018/19 - 28 points, 7 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, 17 goals for 8 against.  We were 4th.

Monk 2017/18 - 26 points, 7 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, 21 goals for 13 against, We were 5th.

Karanka 2015/16 - 30 points, 9 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, 24 goals for, 12 against.  We were 2nd.

Karanka 2014/15 - 30 points, 9 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, 26 goals for, 12 against, We were 4th.

Mowbray 2013/14 - 16 points, 3 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, 26 goals for, 26 against, We were 19th.

Mowbray 2012/13 - 32 points 10 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, 28 goals for, 20 against, We were 2nd.

Mowbray 2011/12 - 30 points, 8 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, 20 goals for, 12 against.  We were 3rd.

Strachan 2010/11 - 17 points, 5 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, 17 goals for, 25 against.  We were 19th.

Southgate 2009/10 - 24 points 7 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, 25 goals for, 17 against.  We were 10th.

Those final two seasons in the list had a little bit of the following manager involved as well, as we sacked Southgate and Strachan around this time of both seasons.

So what can we say then looking at the above?  In the last 12 years, since we were relegated in 2009, we have only started 3 seasons worse than this season - 1 under Strachan, 1 under Mowbray, 1 under Woodgate.  All three managers were sacked during those seasons, and Strachan and Mowbray were sacked at this point in the season as well as it happens.

Only Strachan started with more defeats (9).  Woodgate was level on 7.  

Only Strachan, Mowbray (once) and Woodgate started with fewer wins.

Only Strachan, Woodgate, and Pulis started with fewer goals scored.

Only Strachan, Mowbray (twice), and Woodgate started with more goals conceded.

Only Strachan and Woodgate started with a worse goal difference.

The only positive comparisons we can make with previous seasons are with Strachan, Woodgate, and the season that Mowbray was sacked.  Every other season, under whoever was the manager, even including Warnock last season, was a better start to the season than this one.

It's strange for me to read anyone trying to compare us to the 2014/15 season, which is happening over on FMTTM for some reason.  9 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats and 30 points versus 6 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats 21 points.  26 goals for, 12 against, versus 18 goals for 18 goals against.  9 points difference in only 16 games is actually huge.  It's essentially about 25 points difference over a 46 game season.  We finished that season on 85 points, so that would equate to us finishing on about 60 points, which is precisely what we are on course to do now.  60 points, even in this season, won't be enough to make the play offs.  We'd be 10/15 points short, which obviously is what we are on course to be as it stands. 

The fact that there are really only 3 good sides in the division gives us some hope but our own form would still have to pick up for it to make any difference.  We need about 51 points to make the play offs in the final 30 games in all likelihood.  To do that means 1.7 points per game for the rest of the season.  We've only managed that for one small period under Warnock as far as I can see - the very start of last season when we got 16 points from the first 9 games.  I don't think we've managed it over more than a handful of games all the time he's been here.  Indeed, we are about 1.3 points per game overall under him.  It's quite a big turnaround required even if right now we are only 4 points from the play offs.

 

 

On what basis are they comparing this season to the 14/15 season?! Madness

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2 minutes ago, RealSlimSladeyy said:

On what basis are they comparing this season to the 14/15 season?! Madness

If anything, this is the promotion season the year after, the 2nd full season in charge. Karanka obviously had more time and was a different kind of appointment to Warnock when he came in but in essence, the squad started to come together, as they often do, in the first pre-season.

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11 hours ago, Changing Times said:

I was bored and reading some stuff on the other forum, well I was reading some stuff on the other forum, and then later I was bored so I thought I'd follow Newy and look at some comparisons between this season and previous seasons, to get a flavour of how we stack up with previous teams.

After 16 games we have 21 points, 6 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats  We have 18 goals for and 18 against.  We are in 14th place.

Last season we had 24 points with 6 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats.  16 goals for, 11 against.  We were in 10th place.

Under Woodgate 13 points, 2 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats.  13 goals for, 21 against.  We were 22nd.

Pulis 2018/19 - 28 points, 7 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, 17 goals for 8 against.  We were 4th.

Monk 2017/18 - 26 points, 7 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, 21 goals for 13 against, We were 5th.

Karanka 2015/16 - 30 points, 9 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, 24 goals for, 12 against.  We were 2nd.

Karanka 2014/15 - 30 points, 9 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, 26 goals for, 12 against, We were 4th.

Mowbray 2013/14 - 16 points, 3 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, 26 goals for, 26 against, We were 19th.

Mowbray 2012/13 - 32 points 10 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, 28 goals for, 20 against, We were 2nd.

Mowbray 2011/12 - 30 points, 8 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, 20 goals for, 12 against.  We were 3rd.

Strachan 2010/11 - 17 points, 5 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, 17 goals for, 25 against.  We were 19th.

Southgate 2009/10 - 24 points 7 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, 25 goals for, 17 against.  We were 10th.

Those final two seasons in the list had a little bit of the following manager involved as well, as we sacked Southgate and Strachan around this time of both seasons.

So what can we say then looking at the above?  In the last 12 years, since we were relegated in 2009, we have only started 3 seasons worse than this season - 1 under Strachan, 1 under Mowbray, 1 under Woodgate.  All three managers were sacked during those seasons, and Strachan and Mowbray were sacked at this point in the season as well as it happens.

Only Strachan started with more defeats (9).  Woodgate was level on 7.  

Only Strachan, Mowbray (once) and Woodgate started with fewer wins.

Only Strachan, Woodgate, and Pulis started with fewer goals scored.

Only Strachan, Mowbray (twice), and Woodgate started with more goals conceded.

Only Strachan and Woodgate started with a worse goal difference.

The only positive comparisons we can make with previous seasons are with Strachan, Woodgate, and the season that Mowbray was sacked.  Every other season, under whoever was the manager, even including Warnock last season, was a better start to the season than this one.

It's strange for me to read anyone trying to compare us to the 2014/15 season, which is happening over on FMTTM for some reason.  9 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats and 30 points versus 6 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats 21 points.  26 goals for, 12 against, versus 18 goals for 18 goals against.  9 points difference in only 16 games is actually huge.  It's essentially about 25 points difference over a 46 game season.  We finished that season on 85 points, so that would equate to us finishing on about 60 points, which is precisely what we are on course to do now.  60 points, even in this season, won't be enough to make the play offs.  We'd be 10/15 points short, which obviously is what we are on course to be as it stands. 

The fact that there are really only 3 good sides in the division gives us some hope but our own form would still have to pick up for it to make any difference.  We need about 51 points to make the play offs in the final 30 games in all likelihood.  To do that means 1.7 points per game for the rest of the season.  We've only managed that for one small period under Warnock as far as I can see - the very start of last season when we got 16 points from the first 9 games.  I don't think we've managed it over more than a handful of games all the time he's been here.  Indeed, we are about 1.3 points per game overall under him.  It's quite a big turnaround required even if right now we are only 4 points from the play offs.

 

 

We're a mile away from where we were in 2014/15 and the season after. I don't even need to see the stats its obvious from watching us. It was clear at this point in both of those seasons that we were one of the best sides in the division and we looked like a well balanced team. 

The comparisons with other managers is interesting, it was the right time for a change under Mowbray and Strachan because we'd had a long spell of poor results and things needed a change. I am a Mowbray fan though and I notice the previous seasons under him he had us performing well and better than Warnock despite having far fewer resources. 

Monk had to go because the club had gambled on an immediate return to the Premier league and it was clear that we'd gotten the wrong manager. I think the difference this season is that we are happy to plod along in midtable. We don't have the threat of relegation like we did under Woodgate, Mowbray and Strachan and promotion doesn't look realistic like it might have been in the Monk season. 

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6 hours ago, RealSlimSladeyy said:

On what basis are they comparing this season to the 14/15 season?! Madness

I don't quite know as I haven't read every post on the subject, more skim reading it really.  I think the idea might be that this is Warnock's second full season in charge and Karanka's was 2014/15, although it wasn't really his second full season, it was his first.  It's also possible that after we won the 3 in a row we were on 21 points from 14 games and they just looked for a comparable season.  For some reason Newy keeps saying that it's identical but in fact Karanka had 24 points from 14 games.  Three points more might not seem like a lot but in 14 games it is really, and over a season that's 10 points or so. 

The bigger problem with the comparison, although there are lots of problems with it, is that the context wasn't really looked at.  Our bad run in the first half of that 2014/15 season was actually just the first 5 games, where we lost 3 of them.  Mejias made errors in two of those defeats that lead to us losing, and he was dropped for the sixth game of the season.  We only lost two out of the next 25 I think.  Our first 5 games of this season was 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 defeat, which is actually the same number of points as Karanka got, in the worst spell of the first 30 games or so!  So as Karanka's team started to improve quickly, Warnock's has essentially just continued along at almost the same rate, the only slight improvement coming from winning the three in a row, giving us 9 points from 5 games, to go with 6 points from the first two sets of 5 games.  Winning 3 out of every 5 games would get you into the play offs, the problem is that we aren't winning at that rate, so we are already short of the mark.

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6 hours ago, Bruce said:

@Changing Times

Interesting to see that the main difference between this season and last season is that we were harder to beat: 3 draws replacing 3 defeats and conceding 7 fewer goals. Very much a classic Warnock team but still on only 24 points. Under 20 points at this stage of the season clearly gets you sacked. 30 points or over puts you on track for the playoffs. Anywhere in between is a limbo zone.

 

Yeah, I mean form can change.  Mowbray had two seasons where we started really well but we couldn't sustain it.  For us to have a shot this season we'd have to do the opposite I suppose, and finish the season like a train.  I suppose the question is how likely is that?  We started last season difficult to beat but by the end of the season we'd lost 18 games, so that obviously didn't continue.  This season we are already at 7 defeats, which is quite a lot for 16 games but you can get into the play offs with 13/14 losses over a season, just as long as you win enough games.  If you get a season where the number of draws overall is lower, which this one might be but I haven't checked, then the number of losses you can cope with can be higher than you might think because the number of wins will be higher as well if you see what I mean?

One thing that is almost for certain however is that we are going to need around 50 points to make the play offs this season from this point onwards.  That's about 1.7 points per game, and we just haven't been near that for almost all of Warnock's time here.  It's not impossible but we'd need to become his best Boro side, and do it over 30 games, rather than just a handful.  

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