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Superb article from The Athletic published today... Gives you a real sense that something special is being built. We've been crying out for this for so long.   Michael Walker 2h ago  2 

It is emotional blackmail and the situation has been clearly fabricated, if you look at the handwriting its obvious that Wayne Rooney wrote that letter. 

Great quote from Kevin Blackwell in the Athletic today 🤣🤣🤣

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lots of plusses , televised game meaning revenue, United are beatable in thier resent state, its the less daunting of the two possibilities after the draw ws done,which in a way adds credence to my earlier statement. they dont emit the fear factor at the moment and are about as flimsy as i can ever recall . in fact the two things that worry me most are the obscene amount of refereeing decisions that go in thier favour especially penalties awarded, and the apparent obsession with the F A to end up with a final four in the competition made up of big six sides which is backed up with consistant easy draws usually at home for the two manchester clubs,liverpool and chelsea especially .

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25 minutes ago, Will said:

Provided it's on TV (which it almost definitely will be), there's a good chance we clear £1m. Nice boost to the coffers.

That'll pay for Balogun then! 👍

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2 hours ago, Essuuaitch said:

The apparent obsession with the F A to end up with a final four in the competition made up of big six sides which is backed up with consistant easy draws usually at home for the two manchester clubs,liverpool and chelsea especially .

Unless they're using weighted balls (ooer missis), the cup draws and home/away decisions are totally random. I watched the draw live, and I'm pretty sure United just happened to be drawn at home.

I agree the big clubs get a lot of favourable refereeing decisions, but I don't think home advantage is something anyone could engineer for them. Anyway, if we get more £££ for it, I don't mind - and away fans get to check out OT in preparation for next season's league visit...

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It would be interesting if the more statistically knowledgable amongst us could work out the odds of how often the big 6 should get drawn against each other in early rounds and how often it occurs.. it seems rare but that might just be in our minds..  or there could be another explanation..   I suppose 🙂

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54 minutes ago, RiseAgainst said:

Unless they're using weighted balls (ooer missis), the cup draws and home/away decisions are totally random. I watched the draw live, and I'm pretty sure United just happened to be drawn at home.

I agree the big clubs get a lot of favourable refereeing decisions, but I don't think home advantage is something anyone could engineer for them. Anyway, if we get more £££ for it, I don't mind - and away fans get to check out OT in preparation for next season's league visit...

They get different people to do the draw all the time too. Enough people with enough reputation in the game that would flip their lid if the draws were literally weighted against everybody else.

The reason the big teams so often get through is because they legitimately have better teams than everybody else.

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14 minutes ago, Old Codger said:

It would be interesting if the more statistically knowledgable amongst us could work out the odds of how often the big 6 should get drawn against each other in early rounds and how often it occurs.. it seems rare but that might just be in our minds..  or there could be another explanation..   I suppose 🙂

64 teams in the third round.

So there's a 5 in 63 or 7.94% chance of a Big 6 team that is drawn first being drawn against another Big 6 team.

Obviously the odds change each time another ball is removed from the pot, and there are a huge number of permutations to account for after that first ball is drawn.

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3 hours ago, Essuuaitch said:

lots of plusses , televised game meaning revenue, United are beatable in thier resent state, its the less daunting of the two possibilities after the draw ws done,which in a way adds credence to my earlier statement. they dont emit the fear factor at the moment and are about as flimsy as i can ever recall . in fact the two things that worry me most are the obscene amount of refereeing decisions that go in thier favour especially penalties awarded, and the apparent obsession with the F A to end up with a final four in the competition made up of big six sides which is backed up with consistant easy draws usually at home for the two manchester clubs,liverpool and chelsea especially .

Don't worry - if United end up struggling, you can guarantee the ref will find a way to help them. 🙄

 

Paranoid, you say? Who...me?

 

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4 minutes ago, AnglianRed said:

Don't worry - if United end up struggling, you can guarantee the ref will find a way to help them. 🙄

 

Paranoid, you say? Who...me?

 

Just because you are paranoid doesn’t mean that they are not out to get you

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40 minutes ago, Old Codger said:

It would be interesting if the more statistically knowledgable amongst us could work out the odds of how often the big 6 should get drawn against each other in early rounds and how often it occurs.. it seems rare but that might just be in our minds..  or there could be another explanation..   I suppose 🙂

On how often it's happened, the Big 6 has only been a thing since 2008 at the earliest, though that's just when the Man City takeover happened, since then here's when they've drawn each other in the third round:

- Arsenal drew Tottenham in 2013/14

- Manchester City drew Manchester United in 2011/12

- Manchester United drew Liverpool in 2010/11

So out of a possible 819 opponents in the third round since the Man City takeover, the Big 6 have drawn one of themselves 3 times.

It's very rare.

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16 minutes ago, TeaCider24 said:

On how often it's happened, the Big 6 has only been a thing since 2008 at the earliest, though that's just when the Man City takeover happened, since then here's when they've drawn each other in the third round:

- Arsenal drew Tottenham in 2013/14

- Manchester City drew Manchester United in 2011/12

- Manchester United drew Liverpool in 2010/11

So out of a possible 819 opponents in the third round since the Man City takeover, the Big 6 have drawn one of themselves 3 times.

It's very rare.

how many times have we drawn prem opp in the 3rd round during this period?

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8 minutes ago, estonpidge said:

how many times have we drawn prem opp in the 3rd round during this period?

Premier League opposition in general obviously has a much higher chance of happening given there are 20 of them, but it's happened 3 times.

Manchester City, Hull City and then most recently Tottenham Hotspur.

So we've drawn the top 6 twice in the 13 years since they've been a thing.

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quick and dirty approximation. For each of the "big 6" to draw one of the non-big-6 in a round of 32 then I think it works out something like (out of 64, 6 are "big 6" and 58 are not)

(58/63)*(57/61)*(56/59)*(55/57)*(54/55)

Which is to say that around 77.4% of the time, none of the "big 6" will play each other in the third round or roughly 1 year in 4 (about 25% of the time) at least one match will be between two of the big 6. That's roughly consistent with draws over the last 12 years from the looks of it.

 

 

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