wilsoncgp 9,283 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This is my 2nd thread on here and it's once again a long read, this time on an estimated final table based on averages against the top and bottom 12 teams. If you can't be bothered reading through, feel free to skip through to the end of this post to get to the gist of it and you can see the final table. There's also two tables based on if we were to play all our remaining games against the top or bottom 12. I found it an interesting thing to do in my free time regardless but I welcome feedback on these types of posts. :D -------- From a discussion over in the Cardiff thread regarding our results against the top and bottom teams this season, if we're actually going to predict our finish based on where the teams are based who we play and our record against teams in their positions, lets take from the current table and have a look at the top 6 who (if Derby pick up again and Brighton don't mess up as I expect) we can probably assume would be the teams taking the top 6 positions at the end of the season: Remaining fixtures Team - Top 12 ties - Bottom 12 ties Hull - 6 - 9 Burnley - 7 - 7 BORO - 8 - 8 Brighton - 8 - 6 Derby - 7 - 7 Sheff. Wed. - 7 - 7 Remarkably well balanced remaining fixtures except for Hull. Based on these numbers alone, you'd perhaps think that Hull were dead set for winning the league (and it would be difficult to argue that based on what we've seen as well). But let's have a look at the actual results for these against teams from the top and bottom 12, so we can give a more accurate estimate on the final points based on this data alone. vs. Top 12 Team - P - W - D - L - Pts - Avg Pts. Hull - 16 - 9 - 3 - 4 - 30 - 1.875 Burnley - 15 - 3 - 8 - 4 - 17 - 1.133 BORO - 14 - 8 - 3 - 3 - 27 - 1.929 Brighton - 14 - 4 - 7 - 3 - 19 - 1.357 Derby - 15 - 5 - 6 - 4 - 21 - 1.4 Sheff. Wed. - 15 - 4 - 6 - 5 - 18 - 1.2 For a bit of fun, if we were to play all our remaining games against top 12 teams, this would suggest this finish, you could arguably say someone else would sneak into 6th at least: Pos - Team - Pts ------------------------ 1st - BORO - 88.864 2nd - Hull - 88.125 ------------------------ 3rd - Brighton - 75.998 4th - Burnley - 74.867 5th - Derby - 73.6 6th - Sheff. Wed - 69.8 On the opposite end of the table, the results have been as follows: vs. Bottom 12 Team - P - W - D - L - Pts - Avg Pts. Hull - 15 - 9 - 3 - 3 - 30 - 2 Burnley - 17 - 13 - 3 - 1 - 42 - 2.471 BORO - 16 - 9 - 4 - 3 - 31 - 1.938 Brighton - 18 - 11 - 5 - 2 - 36 - 2 Derby - 17 - 9 - 6 - 2 - 33 - 1.941 Sheff. Wed. - 17 - 10 - 5 - 2 - 35 - 2.059 You'd imagine that, in the flip of the above table, that Burnley would blitz the league if they only had bottom 12 teams remaining. Well it's not exactly blitzing, but a big enough gap in this tight division that it would be deemed an excellent success for them. Pos - Team - Pts ------------------------ 1st - Burnley - 93.594 2nd - Hull - 90 ------------------------ 3rd - BORO - 89.008 4th - Brighton - 85 5th - Sheff. Wed - 81.826 6th - Derby - 81.174 So finally, we come to the final table. Applying the average top 12 to the remaining top 12 games and vice versa for the bottom 12. It's not surprising to see that not much changes when it comes to applying the averages, given that 4 out of the 6 teams have even remaining matches against top and bottom 12, but this still suggests that we should finish comfortably in 2nd: Pos - Team - Pts ------------------------ 1st - Hull - 89.25 2nd - BORO - 88.872 ------------------------ 3rd - Burnley - 84.228 4th - Brighton - 79.856 5th - Derby - 77.387 6th - Sheff. Wed. - 75.813 I decided to do one more thing with this though. This largely looks positive because of our games in hand, the averages give us more credit where it perhaps may not be due. So lets say we either draw or lose our 2 games in hand against Blackburn(a) and Reading(h), given that the concern is we won't make the most of them some way or other. That would leave us with 6 games to play against the bottom 12 with a lower average. If we draw both Average bottom 12 points drops to 1.833 Overall points tally drops to 84.366, a whole 0.138 more than Burnley. If we lose both Average bottom 12 points drops to 1.722 Overall points goes to 83.7, meaning Burnley would beat us by 0.528 and we would finish 3rd. It's tight at the top, those games in hand would seem to be pivotal! Link to post Share on other sites
Jimmy 140 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 That's the most stat-ridden opening post I've ever come across. Love it! It's interesting though, and highlights what I was saying in the Cardiff thread about our poor record against the lower teams, in comparison to our direct rivals. A problem we need to work on. It could work in our favour though, people are wary of our really tough run-in, but maybe this is suited better for us than poorer teams that look easy on paper, but we would struggle to break down. Link to post Share on other sites
misterweed 24 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This is my 2nd thread on here and it's once again a long read, this time on an estimated final table based on averages against the top and bottom 12 teams. If you can't be bothered reading through, feel free to skip through to the end of this post to get to the gist of it and you can see the final table. There's also two tables based on if we were to play all our remaining games against the top or bottom 12. I found it an interesting thing to do in my free time regardless but I welcome feedback on these types of posts. :D -------- From a discussion over in the Cardiff thread regarding our results against the top and bottom teams this season, if we're actually going to predict our finish based on where the teams are based who we play and our record against teams in their positions, lets take from the current table and have a look at the top 6 who (if Derby pick up again and Brighton don't mess up as I expect) we can probably assume would be the teams taking the top 6 positions at the end of the season: Remaining fixtures Team - Top 12 ties - Bottom 12 ties Hull - 6 - 9 Burnley - 7 - 7 BORO - 8 - 8 Brighton - 8 - 6 Derby - 7 - 7 Sheff. Wed. - 7 - 7 Remarkably well balanced remaining fixtures except for Hull. Based on these numbers alone, you'd perhaps think that Hull were dead set for winning the league (and it would be difficult to argue that based on what we've seen as well). But let's have a look at the actual results for these against teams from the top and bottom 12, so we can give a more accurate estimate on the final points based on this data alone. vs. Top 12 Team - P - W - D - L - Pts - Avg Pts. Hull - 16 - 9 - 3 - 4 - 30 - 1.875 Burnley - 15 - 3 - 8 - 4 - 17 - 1.133 BORO - 14 - 8 - 3 - 3 - 27 - 1.929 Brighton - 14 - 4 - 7 - 3 - 19 - 1.357 Derby - 15 - 5 - 6 - 4 - 21 - 1.4 Sheff. Wed. - 15 - 4 - 6 - 5 - 18 - 1.2 For a bit of fun, if we were to play all our remaining games against top 12 teams, this would suggest this finish, you could arguably say someone else would sneak into 6th at least: Pos - Team - Pts ------------------------ 1st - BORO - 88.864 2nd - Hull - 88.125 ------------------------ 3rd - Brighton - 75.998 4th - Burnley - 74.867 5th - Derby - 73.6 6th - Sheff. Wed - 69.8 On the opposite end of the table, the results have been as follows: vs. Bottom 12 Team - P - W - D - L - Pts - Avg Pts. Hull - 15 - 9 - 3 - 3 - 30 - 2 Burnley - 17 - 13 - 3 - 1 - 42 - 2.471 BORO - 16 - 9 - 4 - 3 - 31 - 1.938 Brighton - 18 - 11 - 5 - 2 - 36 - 2 Derby - 17 - 9 - 6 - 2 - 33 - 1.941 Sheff. Wed. - 17 - 10 - 5 - 2 - 35 - 2.059 You'd imagine that, in the flip of the above table, that Burnley would blitz the league if they only had bottom 12 teams remaining. Well it's not exactly blitzing, but a big enough gap in this tight division that it would be deemed an excellent success for them. Pos - Team - Pts ------------------------ 1st - Burnley - 93.594 2nd - Hull - 90 ------------------------ 3rd - BORO - 89.008 4th - Brighton - 85 5th - Sheff. Wed - 81.826 6th - Derby - 81.174 So finally, we come to the final table. Applying the average top 12 to the remaining top 12 games and vice versa for the bottom 12. It's not surprising to see that not much changes when it comes to applying the averages, given that 4 out of the 6 teams have even remaining matches against top and bottom 12, but this still suggests that we should finish comfortably in 2nd: Pos - Team - Pts ------------------------ 1st - Hull - 89.25 2nd - BORO - 88.872 ------------------------ 3rd - Burnley - 84.228 4th - Brighton - 79.856 5th - Derby - 77.387 6th - Sheff. Wed. - 75.813 I decided to do one more thing with this though. This largely looks positive because of our games in hand, the averages give us more credit where it perhaps may not be due. So lets say we either draw or lose our 2 games in hand against Blackburn(a) and Reading(h), given that the concern is we won't make the most of them some way or other. That would leave us with 6 games to play against the bottom 12 with a lower average. If we draw both Average bottom 12 points drops to 1.833 Overall points tally drops to 84.366, a whole 0.138 more than Burnley. If we lose both Average bottom 12 points drops to 1.722 Overall points goes to 83.7, meaning Burnley would beat us by 0.528 and we would finish 3rd. It's tight at the top, those games in hand would seem to be pivotal! You need to get out more ! Link to post Share on other sites
EliMFC 4 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 That's the most stat-ridden opening post I've ever come across. Love it! It's interesting though, and highlights what I was saying in the Cardiff thread about our poor record against the lower teams, in comparison to our direct rivals. A problem we need to work on. It could work in our favour though, people are wary of our really tough run-in, but maybe this is suited better for us than poorer teams that look easy on paper, but we would struggle to break down. We have looked miles better when playing the "tougher teams" bar Hull even though a lot of them teams when coming to the riverside have still tried to sit back and make it difficult for us. What is the reason for us struggling so much against the "lesser" sides is it because we go down to there level or because we believe it should be an easier game? by the way love the OP it's made me feel a lot more confident now :rolleyes: :s Link to post Share on other sites
wilsoncgp 9,283 Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 You need to get out more ! Yeah, well I live in London and currently unemployed, there's not a lot the outside world can offer me around here at the moment! :D Link to post Share on other sites
Jimmy 140 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 That's the most stat-ridden opening post I've ever come across. Love it! It's interesting though, and highlights what I was saying in the Cardiff thread about our poor record against the lower teams, in comparison to our direct rivals. A problem we need to work on. It could work in our favour though, people are wary of our really tough run-in, but maybe this is suited better for us than poorer teams that look easy on paper, but we would struggle to break down. We have looked miles better when playing the "tougher teams" bar Hull even though a lot of them teams when coming to the riverside have still tried to sit back and make it difficult for us. What is the reason for us struggling so much against the "lesser" sides is it because we go down to there level or because we believe it should be an easier game? by the way love the OP it's made me feel a lot more confident now :rolleyes: :s I think the reason is that we just simply haven't got many ways of breaking down teams when they put 10 men behind the ball. More creativity needed. Link to post Share on other sites
misterweed 24 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 You need to get out more ! Yeah, well I live in London and currently unemployed, there's not a lot the outside world can offer me around here at the moment! :D With your talent for stats you won't be unemployed for long ... best wishes Link to post Share on other sites
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