wilsoncgp 9,230 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Have to say, quite surprised that the odds are in our favour. It's rare that odds go against the home side unless the home side is poor and the away side is good. And when they've looked good at home and we've not been a great attacking threat at all, it seems strange that the bookies are more convinced of an away win. I know we've just come off the back of our biggest win of the season so far but Burnley's defence is a lot better than Swansea's. Link to post Share on other sites
Erimus 63 478 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Have to say, quite surprised that the odds are in our favour. It's rare that odds go against the home side unless the home side is poor and the away side is good. And when they've looked good at home and we've not been a great attacking threat at all, it seems strange that the bookies are more convinced of an away win. I know we've just come off the back of our biggest win of the season so far but Burnley's defence is a lot better than Swansea's. It's horses for courses on Boxing Day fixtures; we're good over the last several years, Burnley are bad on boxing Day. Simple as that. Link to post Share on other sites
Uwe 3,543 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Have to say, quite surprised that the odds are in our favour. It's rare that odds go against the home side unless the home side is poor and the away side is good. And when they've looked good at home and we've not been a great attacking threat at all, it seems strange that the bookies are more convinced of an away win. I know we've just come off the back of our biggest win of the season so far but Burnley's defence is a lot better than Swansea's. It's horses for courses on Boxing Day fixtures; we're good over the last several years, Burnley are bad on boxing Day. Simple as that. Looking at Bet365 all the odds are fractionally up or down of 2/1. So two teams 1 point apart both scored 16 but we have a better defence by 7 fewer goals conceded. That will be the difference and why we are the favourites (marginally) normally when two teams are evenly matched the home team will be made favourite but we only just edge it due to our defence. I honestly don't think bookies care at all on what say it is and how a certain team has fared historically. They are more scientific than that IMO Link to post Share on other sites
Erimus 63 478 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Have to say, quite surprised that the odds are in our favour. It's rare that odds go against the home side unless the home side is poor and the away side is good. And when they've looked good at home and we've not been a great attacking threat at all, it seems strange that the bookies are more convinced of an away win. I know we've just come off the back of our biggest win of the season so far but Burnley's defence is a lot better than Swansea's. It's horses for courses on Boxing Day fixtures; we're good over the last several years, Burnley are bad on boxing Day. Simple as that. Looking at Bet365 all the odds are fractionally up or down of 2/1. So two teams 1 point apart both scored 16 but we have a better defence by 7 fewer goals conceded. That will be the difference and why we are the favourites (marginally) normally when two teams are evenly matched the home team will be made favourite but we only just edge it due to our defence. I honestly don't think bookies care at all on what say it is and how a certain team has fared historically. They are more scientific than that IMO Bookies go into everything and look at all angles. Link to post Share on other sites
Uwe 3,543 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Have to say, quite surprised that the odds are in our favour. It's rare that odds go against the home side unless the home side is poor and the away side is good. And when they've looked good at home and we've not been a great attacking threat at all, it seems strange that the bookies are more convinced of an away win. I know we've just come off the back of our biggest win of the season so far but Burnley's defence is a lot better than Swansea's. It's horses for courses on Boxing Day fixtures; we're good over the last several years, Burnley are bad on boxing Day. Simple as that. Looking at Bet365 all the odds are fractionally up or down of 2/1. So two teams 1 point apart both scored 16 but we have a better defence by 7 fewer goals conceded. That will be the difference and why we are the favourites (marginally) normally when two teams are evenly matched the home team will be made favourite but we only just edge it due to our defence. I honestly don't think bookies care at all on what and how a certain team has fared historically. They are more scientific than that IMO Bookies go into everything and look at all angles. Not disputing that. But how a team fared on a certain day 2/3 seasons ago. Possibly with a different manager, in a different league and definitely with a different group of players has no bearing on what will happen now. Bookies realise that. It would be interesting to see how far bookies do go back but I can gurenteeing its not years (actually I can't 'guarantee' it but you know what I mean) Link to post Share on other sites
wilsoncgp 9,230 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 It just takes a fair bit for the odds to be swung against the home side in any game of football. Compare the form of the last 10 games of the 2 teams: BORO: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses - 12 points Burnley: 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses - 10 points Home vs. away form (last 4): Burnley: 3 wins, 1 loss - 9 points BORO: 3 draws, 1 loss - 3 points That's the simple stats which, to me, certainly don't say Boro will win on Boxing Day. I know the bookies go into way more information than that (injuries, previous results between the 2 teams, etc. etc.) but I'd love to know what information has caused them to put the game in favour of a win for Boro when in reality, you have 2 teams who are doing alright in this division, both just been promoted and the home advantage is in their favour. I'd say a draw is probably the most probable result in all honesty but then I know bookies barely put a draw as the most probable result given that (from a book I was reading a while back) the most common number of goals in a game is 1, making a draw impossible. I'm just not convinced there's enough reason to suggest that goal will go to us. Link to post Share on other sites
crvn 38 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Off topic slightly, but does anyone have a spare ticket for this? we just missed out, got one, need one more. Thanks! Link to post Share on other sites
boronutter 149 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 It just takes a fair bit for the odds to be swung against the home side in any game of football. Compare the form of the last 10 games of the 2 teams: BORO: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses - 12 points Burnley: 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses - 10 points Home vs. away form (last 4): Burnley: 3 wins, 1 loss - 9 points BORO: 3 draws, 1 loss - 3 points That's the simple stats which, to me, certainly don't say Boro will win on Boxing Day. I know the bookies go into way more information than that (injuries, previous results between the 2 teams, etc. etc.) but I'd love to know what information has caused them to put the game in favour of a win for Boro when in reality, you have 2 teams who are doing alright in this division, both just been promoted and the home advantage is in their favour. I'd say a draw is probably the most probable result in all honesty but then I know bookies barely put a draw as the most probable result given that (from a book I was reading a while back) the most common number of goals in a game is 1, making a draw impossible. I'm just not convinced there's enough reason to suggest that goal will go to us. one thing i will say,is that the bookies are not usually too far wrong with their predictions Link to post Share on other sites
Denzel Zanzibar 6,931 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 I've got exclusive proof that shows Karanka and Dyche are actually best friends! Link to post Share on other sites
Borodane 6,246 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Is there a risk that the game could be postponed? A serious storm is forecasted to hit Denmark coming from the British isles at some point tomorrow. From the satellite images it looks like England can also be severely hit. Link to post Share on other sites
Brunners 7,952 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Not sure if this is the best place but thought it might get the most views; quality of attacks for teams in the Premier League. Link to post Share on other sites
Will 2,958 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Is there a risk that the game could be postponed? A serious storm is forecasted to hit Denmark coming from the British isles at some point tomorrow. From the satellite images it looks like England can also be severely hit. I haven't had any major rain where I am, the storm has just been high winds so far for me. Link to post Share on other sites
BearSmog 1,382 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 There's been terrible wind here.. Think it's the sprouts though.. Link to post Share on other sites
Borodane 6,246 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 It's game day baby. Let the three points have a seat on the bus home. Link to post Share on other sites
Jimmy 140 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Christmas done.. back to Boro. Getting myself pumped this morning, just watched the highlights of Bolton away, Reading and Brighton from last year... scenes. Link to post Share on other sites
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