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Have to say, quite surprised that the odds are in our favour. It's rare that odds go against the home side unless the home side is poor and the away side is good. And when they've looked good at home and we've not been a great attacking threat at all, it seems strange that the bookies are more convinced of an away win.

 

I know we've just come off the back of our biggest win of the season so far but Burnley's defence is a lot better than Swansea's.

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Not a regular or big poster but yesterday felt like a watershed moment in some ways, so here I go...   We kept the ball well for long spells in the second half, albeit without opening them up a singl

Have to say, quite surprised that the odds are in our favour. It's rare that odds go against the home side unless the home side is poor and the away side is good. And when they've looked good at home and we've not been a great attacking threat at all, it seems strange that the bookies are more convinced of an away win.

 

I know we've just come off the back of our biggest win of the season so far but Burnley's defence is a lot better than Swansea's.

 

It's horses for courses on Boxing Day fixtures; we're good over the last several years, Burnley are bad on boxing Day. Simple as that.

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Have to say, quite surprised that the odds are in our favour. It's rare that odds go against the home side unless the home side is poor and the away side is good. And when they've looked good at home and we've not been a great attacking threat at all, it seems strange that the bookies are more convinced of an away win.

 

I know we've just come off the back of our biggest win of the season so far but Burnley's defence is a lot better than Swansea's.

 

It's horses for courses on Boxing Day fixtures; we're good over the last several years, Burnley are bad on boxing Day. Simple as that.

 

Looking at Bet365 all the odds are fractionally up or down of 2/1. So two teams 1 point apart both scored 16 but we have a better defence by 7 fewer goals conceded. That will be the difference and why we are the favourites (marginally) normally when two teams are evenly matched the home team will be made favourite but we only just edge it due to our defence. I honestly don't think bookies care at all on what say it is and how a certain team has fared historically. They are more scientific than that IMO

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Have to say, quite surprised that the odds are in our favour. It's rare that odds go against the home side unless the home side is poor and the away side is good. And when they've looked good at home and we've not been a great attacking threat at all, it seems strange that the bookies are more convinced of an away win.

 

I know we've just come off the back of our biggest win of the season so far but Burnley's defence is a lot better than Swansea's.

 

It's horses for courses on Boxing Day fixtures; we're good over the last several years, Burnley are bad on boxing Day. Simple as that.

 

Looking at Bet365 all the odds are fractionally up or down of 2/1. So two teams 1 point apart both scored 16 but we have a better defence by 7 fewer goals conceded. That will be the difference and why we are the favourites (marginally) normally when two teams are evenly matched the home team will be made favourite but we only just edge it due to our defence. I honestly don't think bookies care at all on what say it is and how a certain team has fared historically. They are more scientific than that IMO

 

Bookies go into everything and look at all angles.

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Have to say, quite surprised that the odds are in our favour. It's rare that odds go against the home side unless the home side is poor and the away side is good. And when they've looked good at home and we've not been a great attacking threat at all, it seems strange that the bookies are more convinced of an away win.

 

I know we've just come off the back of our biggest win of the season so far but Burnley's defence is a lot better than Swansea's.

 

It's horses for courses on Boxing Day fixtures; we're good over the last several years, Burnley are bad on boxing Day. Simple as that.

 

Looking at Bet365 all the odds are fractionally up or down of 2/1. So two teams 1 point apart both scored 16 but we have a better defence by 7 fewer goals conceded. That will be the difference and why we are the favourites (marginally) normally when two teams are evenly matched the home team will be made favourite but we only just edge it due to our defence. I honestly don't think bookies care at all on what and how a certain team has fared historically. They are more scientific than that IMO

 

Bookies go into everything and look at all angles.

 

Not disputing that. But how a team fared on a certain day 2/3 seasons ago. Possibly with a different manager, in a different league and definitely with a different group of players has no bearing on what will happen now. Bookies realise that. It would be interesting to see how far bookies do go back but I can gurenteeing its not years (actually I can't 'guarantee' it but you know what I mean)

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It just takes a fair bit for the odds to be swung against the home side in any game of football.

 

Compare the form of the last 10 games of the 2 teams:

 

BORO: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses - 12 points

Burnley: 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses - 10 points

 

Home vs. away form (last 4):

 

Burnley: 3 wins, 1 loss - 9 points

BORO: 3 draws, 1 loss - 3 points

 

That's the simple stats which, to me, certainly don't say Boro will win on Boxing Day. I know the bookies go into way more information than that (injuries, previous results between the 2 teams, etc. etc.) but I'd love to know what information has caused them to put the game in favour of a win for Boro when in reality, you have 2 teams who are doing alright in this division, both just been promoted and the home advantage is in their favour.

 

I'd say a draw is probably the most probable result in all honesty but then I know bookies barely put a draw as the most probable result given that (from a book I was reading a while back) the most common number of goals in a game is 1, making a draw impossible. I'm just not convinced there's enough reason to suggest that goal will go to us.

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It just takes a fair bit for the odds to be swung against the home side in any game of football.

 

Compare the form of the last 10 games of the 2 teams:

 

BORO: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses - 12 points

Burnley: 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses - 10 points

 

Home vs. away form (last 4):

 

Burnley: 3 wins, 1 loss - 9 points

BORO: 3 draws, 1 loss - 3 points

 

That's the simple stats which, to me, certainly don't say Boro will win on Boxing Day. I know the bookies go into way more information than that (injuries, previous results between the 2 teams, etc. etc.) but I'd love to know what information has caused them to put the game in favour of a win for Boro when in reality, you have 2 teams who are doing alright in this division, both just been promoted and the home advantage is in their favour.

 

I'd say a draw is probably the most probable result in all honesty but then I know bookies barely put a draw as the most probable result given that (from a book I was reading a while back) the most common number of goals in a game is 1, making a draw impossible. I'm just not convinced there's enough reason to suggest that goal will go to us.

 

one thing i will say,is that the bookies are not usually too far wrong with their predictions

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Is there a risk that the game could be postponed? A serious storm is forecasted to hit Denmark coming from the British isles at some point tomorrow. From the satellite images it looks like England can also be severely hit.

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Is there a risk that the game could be postponed? A serious storm is forecasted to hit Denmark coming from the British isles at some point tomorrow. From the satellite images it looks like England can also be severely hit.

 

I haven't had any major rain where I am, the storm has just been high winds so far for me.

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