Relegation Rivals

[GwenStuani 4]

Quality from both teams has been terrible in this second half. How was the first? Same except for the goals?

[northern boro 449]

Quality from both teams has been terrible in this second half. How was the first? Same except for the goals?

 

Pretty much didn't think much of Swansea till the goal

 

10+hrs without a goal for Leicester now

[Uwe 3,545]

In under 6 weeks Paul Clemant has won as many premier league games as Karanka has in 6 months.

 

That's a hell of a turn around

[pikerman 1,121]

Spent an hour or so on my computer trying to predict the outcomes for the remaining twelve fixtures of the bottom six. By weighting each fixture by home advantage / previous result / results against the top six etc, I have arrived at the following end of season table;

Hull 36 points

Leicester 35 points

Swansea 34 points

Boro 32 points

Palace 32 points

Sunderland 28 points

At the end of the day our fixture list on the run in kills us, our rivals just have it so much easier. Fed up now, wish I had not bothered !

[GwenStuani 4]

Don't understand people's beef with the run in. Everybody plays everybody twice

[thomas 501]

Spent an hour or so on my computer trying to predict the outcomes for the remaining twelve fixtures of the bottom six. By weighting each fixture by home advantage / previous result / results against the top six etc, I have arrived at the following end of season table;

Hull 36 points

Leicester 35 points

Swansea 34 points

Boro 32 points

Palace 32 points

Sunderland 28 points

At the end of the day our fixture list on the run in kills us, our rivals just have it so much easier. Fed up now, wish I had not bothered !

 

 

Leicester to get 35 points i do not think thats right i think they'll end up bottom of the league, they have champions league and fa cup which their players are more bothered about becuase they have already won the league. I actually would not past them to win either the champions league or the fa cup and go down the players leave and Ranieri rebuilds the squad in the championship.

[Will 2,958]

Hull to pick up 16 points from 13 games? I don't think so...

[Maccarone 265]

Agree Will, no way will Hull got that many point's.

Another 14 points should be about enough, our goal difference is worth an extra point.

[wilsoncgp 9,283]

I had a look because we have 5 of the top 6 to play.

 

Hull have 2.

Swansea have 3.

Leicester and Sunderland have 4.

Boro have 5.

Palace have all 6.

 

Maybe not that much difference but there's only 13 games left, that's around 7.7% of the remaining potential points for each game. ~40% of our games are against teams from the top 6.

 

That packs an awful lot of importance onto the number of 6-pointers that remain too. Classifying that as games against teams around us that could make or break avoiding relegation.

 

Swansea, Leicester and Crystal Palace have 3.

Boro and Sunderland have 4.

Hull have 5.

 

Perhaps if you say we win all 4 of those games against Palace, Sunderland, Hull and Swansea, we might look relatively safe. Applying all 4 of those results to the current table would look like:

 

BORO P29 Pts. 34

Swansea P26 Pts. 24

Leicester P25 Pts. 21

Hull P26 Pts. 20

Palace P26 Pts. 19

Sunderland P26 Pts. 19

 

All fair and well, looks good to be in a position where 3/4 games in hand, we would be beyond our competitors. But for one, I doubt we will get 12 points out of those games (if any of those results is flipped, they're not much good at all). And two, at this stage of the season, you kind of need to get into good form rather than win odd games and we have tough games fitted around those 6-pointers.

 

That first 3 games in April is so important. Our last chances to affect teams around us, assuming Bournemouth don't get dragged into it. Beyond that, it's out of our control. If we're in a bad position after that week, I'm not at all confident we'll survive.

[Tom 2,492]

We could be playing a lot of teams with nothing to play for at the end of the season. Good teams, yes, but if there's no drive from one team, results may not be that predictable, you can't forget that. Remember how Spurs played at the end of last season after Leicester won the league.

In all honesty, that bunch of games IS going to be tough, but you can't underestimate a team with everything to play for going up against a team going through the motions.

[Dan1234 1,056]

Agreed, who knows what games some of those teams might still have to play around that time. If they have European fixtures, or possibly FA cup Quarter's/semi's we might end up playing a team that has their mind on other things.

[MacLeanBunn 0]

I had a look because we have 5 of the top 6 to play.

 

Hull have 2.

Swansea have 3.

Leicester and Sunderland have 4.

Boro have 5.

Palace have all 6.

 

Maybe not that much difference but there's only 13 games left, that's around 7.7% of the remaining potential points for each game. ~40% of our games are against teams from the top 6.

 

That packs an awful lot of importance onto the number of 6-pointers that remain too. Classifying that as games against teams around us that could make or break avoiding relegation.

 

Swansea, Leicester and Crystal Palace have 3.

Boro and Sunderland have 4.

Hull have 5.

 

Perhaps if you say we win all 4 of those games against Palace, Sunderland, Hull and Swansea, we might look relatively safe. Applying all 4 of those results to the current table would look like:

 

BORO P29 Pts. 34

Swansea P26 Pts. 24

Leicester P25 Pts. 21

Hull P26 Pts. 20

Palace P26 Pts. 19

Sunderland P26 Pts. 19

 

All fair and well, looks good to be in a position where 3/4 games in hand, we would be beyond our competitors. But for one, I doubt we will get 12 points out of those games (if any of those results is flipped, they're not much good at all). And two, at this stage of the season, you kind of need to get into good form rather than win odd games and we have tough games fitted around those 6-pointers.

 

That first 3 games in April is so important. Our last chances to affect teams around us, assuming Bournemouth don't get dragged into it. Beyond that, it's out of our control. If we're in a bad position after that week, I'm not at all confident we'll survive.

 

Well judging by the games so far I'd say we'll get 13 pts.

 

Every game will be a 0-0.......... except for Sunderland at home, which we will win 1-0, probably in the 60th minute and be kept on the edge of our seats as we stave off waves of Sunderland attacks for the next 35 mins.

 

We'll also be beaten by Chelsea and one of the Manchester teams.

 

We'll go into the Liverpool game needing at least a draw to survive on goal difference Gaston will come alive again, but it will be Traore who will get his first goal of the season and have it ridiculously ruled out for some unknown reason and it will still end up 0-0.

[Borodane 6,301]

I think I'd rather have that tough run in with everything to play for (although it would be nice to be safe). By having them all in a row you can kind of get into a groove while playing a top side occasionally tends to be a loss as you shift focus onto the next game where you have a realistic chance of winning. End of season fixtures always throws up big surprises. Look at Sunderland the past few seasons and Spurs lost 5-0 at Newcastle last season.

 

All teams towards the bottom play some of the big sides but it's our job to get some wins against our direct opponents. Palace next is an absolute mother of a game. Go into that game on the back of a win against Oxford with Gaston back and Palace could get really anxious if we can hold them off in the opening of the game. We owe them one after that shambolic loss at the Riverside and they look to be in absolute turmoil.

[thomas 501]

Agreed, who knows what games some of those teams might still have to play around that time. If they have European fixtures, or possibly FA cup Quarter's/semi's we might end up playing a team that has their mind on other things.

We might be that team that has our mind on other things if we win against oxford.

[Borodane 6,301]

Agreed, who knows what games some of those teams might still have to play around that time. If they have European fixtures, or possibly FA cup Quarter's/semi's we might end up playing a team that has their mind on other things.

We might be that team that has our mind on other things if we win against oxford.

 

There is no way the FA CUp will take our attention off the league. There is no pressure on us to win anything but Prem survival while a lot of teams left in the competition will value the FA Cup very high as it's likely their last chance of winning silverware this season. We will have 100% focus on the league.