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Boro v Sunderland 1-0 (Tavernier)


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If we can't feel confident about this game, then what game can we feel confident about?? What an opportunity to smash Sunderland in front of the Sky cameras and remind the league that we're still here. Lose/draw and the negativity will be straight back and we have a tough game at Leeds next.

 

Have we finally "clicked" or is there still a lot more work to be done?

- Definite improvement, but for me I would need to see us beat a decent team to say we've 'clicked'. Good wins but Reading & Hull were pretty rubbish if we're being brutally honest.

 

Same XI again or would you change it?

- Same XI. I've seen calls for Traore but he is ineffective against teams that park the bus.

 

Seriously though how good is Braithwaite?!

- Still class.

 

How many minutes before Cattermole is booked? (if he plays that is)

- He'll be nursing a hangover on the bench, won't play.

 

Score prediction?

- 3-0

 

Agree with the majority of that.

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Although we should be absolutely smashing Sunderland, the sacking of Grayson does make them an unknown entity for Sunday.

Teams often have a good game after sacking their manager so hoping this isn't the case. Either it's going to be a lot tougher game than many are anticipating, or it'll go the other way and we'll absolutely destroy them.

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@Humpty - I'm erring towards your thinking; though I actually think this game would've been easier if Grayson were still in charge. We need to be wary of the infamous immediate bounce-back that often happens once a manager dismissed.

 

Individually, Sunderland do have some dangerous players. Grabban, McGeady, Oviedo, Ndong - all have contributed decent amounts this season. If Ayala keeps up his form, he and Gibbo can keep Grabban quiet. McGeady & Oviedo down their left we'l have to be wary of if Christie gets forward, but Downing on the right should cover him well. Then if Howson & Leadbitter keep bossing the midfield as they have in the last 2, they should win a battle over Ndong and any partner.

 

Essentially, it's down to individual battles. I imagine the atmosphere at the Riverside will be more positive after two away wins on the bounce, which should push our lads on to win those battles. As with any Derby though, we need to start strong and keep the crowd happy and buzzing from the off... otherwise, it turns quickly.

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Although we should be absolutely smashing Sunderland, the sacking of Grayson does make them an unknown entity for Sunday.

Teams often have a good game after sacking their manager so hoping this isn't the case. Either it's going to be a lot tougher game than many are anticipating, or it'll go the other way and we'll absolutely destroy them.

 

Missed your post jimmy - then said a similar thing! Agreed on the manager factor mate.

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I'd like to see the statistics of how often a team bounces back after sacking a manager. I'd bet that more often the team just continues in the same state.

 

I'm not sure you always see a dramatic improvement particularly with a caretaker as things tend to continue without any dramatic changes.

 

I work with a Sunderland fan and he doesn't blame Grayson for the current predicament there. The problems are far bigger than him.

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I'd like to see the statistics of how often a team bounces back after sacking a manager. I'd bet that more often the team just continues in the same state.

 

There was some research by a Dutch man in it. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23724517

 

It seems that the sacking of a boss doesn't make much difference across the season, but for a short period afterwards it does improve results - but to no real benefit in the long term. Ultimately, statistically speaking - we'd expect Sunderland to win as many points under Grayson as they will under Stockdale / the new manager, but perhaps at different points in the season. It's the statistical belief that everything generally moves towards the Mean - hence why that's the average.

The research was generally based on teams suffering an "uncharacteristic slump in form" though... wether Sunderland can Class as that is another matter entirely ;)

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I'd like to see the statistics of how often a team bounces back after sacking a manager. I'd bet that more often the team just continues in the same state.

 

This study is a few years old now but covers a 5 year span so I wouldn't expect the basic underlying data to change massively. It looks at the games won leading up to and after a sacking (only in season sackings are counted), it's taken from data across all 4 divisions in England.

 

  Game                              Win %

4 games before                   29%

3 games before                   29%

2 games before                   20%

1 games before                   13%

1 games after                      26%

2 games after                      40%  

3 games after                      35%

4 games after                      35%

 

So only 13% of managers are sacked after a win (rare but it happens as Mr Southgate will know).

In the first game after a sacking just over 1 in 4 times results in a win, and the "honeymoon" period tends to improve after the first game... so maybe this is a good time to play them!

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Putting Stockdale in-charge reminds me of us appointing Agnew. Sure they might have a small lift as the players want to do well for him, but he's been part of the problem there for years.

 

As a sidenote, I was on the Leeds fb page and loads of there fans want Christiansen sacked and replaced by Grayson or Strachan.

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I saw about Grayson, not Strachan. Who on Earth would want Strachan at this level after the *** show he gave us? Are they mad?

 

And why on Earth do they even want Christiansen sacked to begin with?

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I saw about Grayson, not Strachan. Who on Earth would want Strachan at this level after the *** show he gave us? Are they mad?

 

And why on Earth do they even want Christiansen sacked to begin with?

 

To be fair, Strachan's main problem here was that his signings didn't really work out.

He arguably would have a better starting base at Leeds than he did here, and wouldn't have to take as many gambles.

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I'd like to see the statistics of how often a team bounces back after sacking a manager. I'd bet that more often the team just continues in the same state.

 

This study is a few years old now but covers a 5 year span so I wouldn't expect the basic underlying data to change massively. It looks at the games won leading up to and after a sacking (only in season sackings are counted), it's taken from data across all 4 divisions in England.

 

  Game                              Win %

4 games before                   29%

3 games before                   29%

2 games before                   20%

1 games before                   13%

1 games after                      26%

2 games after                      40%  

3 games after                      35%

4 games after                      35%

 

So only 13% of managers are sacked after a win (rare but it happens as Mr Southgate will know).

In the first game after a sacking just over 1 in 4 times results in a win, and the "honeymoon" period tends to improve after the first game... so maybe this is a good time to play them!

 

Interesting. I stand corrected then ::)ope we smash them tough. Hulk style.

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I'm still not sure what Leeds fans hope to achieve by sacking Thomas Christiansen who's a victim of his own early success... I'm sure most Leeds fans would have been fairly happy with 7th at this stage of the season. I know they're in a terrible slump right now but I think he's shown to be pretty astute overall and playing good football.

 

I think Leeds are experiencing the downsides of Orta's bargain basement recruitment, his throw enough s*** at a wall and something is bound to stick tactics. It's difficult to get a whole new squad of foreign imports to acclimatise to a new league.

 

At this point in time could Leeds fans really see Grayson picking up that team with a bunch of lightweight technical players and boosting them up to automatic promotion? I think it's easier looking from the outside in on someone else's club, but when you're emotionally attached to a club every run of bad form feels like a crisis point.

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Have we clicked? Well i think this game will tell us a lot more. I really expect this to be tougher than the Reading and Hull games. Reason being i think Sunderland have actually played a lot better recently than their results may suggest in fact i think Grayson was a bit hard done by to get the sack. In my opinion the reason for their lack of points is similar to our own problems in that they have made a lot of individual errors which have been punished so often. If they cut them out then they will probably do okay as going forward they do pose quite a threat. I think the reason for our recent improvement is we have kept our shape much better and not been dragged all over the pitch. At times we have looked like headless chickens but maybe (just maybe) what Monk is asking of the players is starting to sink in.

 

Should we keep the same 11? If we are injury free then i hope we do as i prefer consistency when possible.

 

How good is Braithwaite? Still better than what we have seen so far.

 

Cattermole !!! mmm lets move on

 

Prediction- I would love to say we will stuff them out of sight and if we improve on our last couple of games or if they self destruct then maybe we will. However i will go with a 2-1 win though far from confident about it.

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Have we finally "clicked" or is there still a lot more work to be done? More work.

Same XI again or would you change it? I'll keep saying change it until Bamford is starting every week.

Seriously though how good is Braithwaite?! Decent Championship standard.

How many minutes before Cattermole is booked? (if he plays that is). 95.

Score prediction? 1-0.

 

Thanks for pointing out Lewis Grabban's beard, I didn't know about it and have just looked on Google images. It is an abomination.

 

Home form 3/2/2 and 8/6

Away form 1/4/2 and 12/16

 

They don't win, but have only lost 2, they concede a lot of goals, we average just over 1 a game.

 

Home form 0/1/2 and 2/4

Away form 0/2/1 and 7/10

 

Neither team on good form, no wins in 3, we aren't scoring but they are still conceding.

 

1-0 to us, probably an own goal.

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