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How confident are you in Woodgate after our start to the season?

How confident are you in Woodgate after our start to the season?  

93 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. Are you....

    • Fully confident - needs more time
      11
    • So-So - early days yet
      55
    • Bit worried - not the best start
      20
    • Extremely worried - can't see scope for improvement
      7

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  • Poll closed on 08/30/2019 at 10:48 AM

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18 minutes ago, Brunners said:

What does PPDA mean?

 

https://statsbomb.com/2014/07/defensive-metrics-measuring-the-intensity-of-a-high-press/

Passes Allowed Per Defensive Action (PPDA Metric)

Although I introduced this concept in my October article, I wasn’t able to analyse the defensive pressure by specific areas of the pitch – I simply had to use whole game stats. However, I can now extract the required information from the detailed Opta files and begin to create a meaningful metric. I have no doubt that this will be an iterative process and that modifications and improvements will be made in due course, but we have to start somewhere……

 

Defensive Actions

The defensive actions that I am using are the following four Opta defined events:

Tackles
Interceptions
Challenges (failed tackles)
Fouls
For this analysis I am not concerned about whether the opposition made or completed passes. I want to measure the pressure that the defending team puts on the opposition players when they are in possession of the ball; and I think those four stats suffice in this regard. I am developing a descriptive measure, and at this stage whether the press is successful or not is not the aim of this initial step.

The PPDA metric is calculated by dividing the number of passes allowed by the defending team by the total number of defensive actions; both values will be calculated with reference to a specific area of the pitch.

PPDA = Number of Passes made by Attacking Team / Number of Defensive Actions

A smaller PPDA value signifies a greater level of defensive intensity, as in essence, the defence has allowed a smaller ratio of uncontested passes to be made.

Not every pressing team will press all of the time; perhaps they wait for certain pressing triggers, other than just the position of the ball. However, this metric provides an objective measurement as it is calculated with reference to the number of times that it is possible for the defensive team to press, ie on all opposition passes in the specified area of the pitch.

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29 minutes ago, Will said:

7EDD90B8-7AB5-491D-B77A-781D99230876.jpeg

 

Edit misread the graph order.

So basically we are much better at pressing (PPDA), allow less shots against us, have more possession and cross more often. We also have less long balls, but less touches in the box (bad crossing?), shot percent on target is down, GD and xG are down, and deep completion is way down (this is completing passes deep in opposition territory). 

The stats are somewhat promising. 

Edited by boroie

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Surely ‘deep completion’ being down on an already low score isn’t very promising? Couple that score with a higher % posession suggests possession in less dangerous areas. I am surprised shots against is down tbf, I think that will be a result of us sitting higher up the pitch, under pulis we seemed to beg teams to come on to us at times.

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I voted worried. I have no doubt Woodgate can effect positive change given enough time. But do we really have time? Most of our saleable assets are less than two years from their contracts expiring, which means we either renew them in Jan/summer 2020, or sell them. This feels like the last season where we have a realistic chance of promotion - can you honestly see us going up without Randolph, Britt, etc? (accepting Britt has had a pretty poor start to the season, but his goals-per-season stats speak for themselves). And would those players want to resign for us if we're not far more competitive and positive than we currently are?

I know the poll isn't about Gibson - another poll for another day - but I blame him rather than Woody for our current plight. He appointed Pulis, who appears to have extracted every last molecule of spontaneity and flair from our players, imbuing them with the belief that a forward pass leads to instant damnation. He then appointed Woody, who has no experience other than coaching under Pulis, had to lose half a dozen senior pros like Mikel and Hugill (who's scoring for fun at QPR now he has players in the same half of the pitch), get stitched up a kipper the day before transfer deadline day with the all-important PL loan signings being cancelled from under him, and is now expected to fulfil his original ambition of transforming a wafer-thin squad low on confidence into playing in the style of the current champions of Europe.

Our best performance of the season by a mile was Luton. Since then, we've been dour and negative, players look tired (!) and I feel we've actually gone backwards. The Wigan performance was dire in the main, barring one or two nice passing moves down the right wing. It felt like a Pulis performance, but without the class of Mikel or the thrill of Traore. 'Worrying' is the perfect adjective.

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48 minutes ago, LinoJo3 said:

Surely ‘deep completion’ being down on an already low score isn’t very promising? Couple that score with a higher % posession suggests possession in less dangerous areas. I am surprised shots against is down tbf, I think that will be a result of us sitting higher up the pitch, under pulis we seemed to beg teams to come on to us at times.

Yep, I qualified the positive with a 'somewhat'. There's green shoots there but we look less effective up top and have an over reliance on crossing that doesn't connect. However we are winning the ball back faster and holding onto it for longer (less hoofing). Now possession stats by themselves are a bit broken anyway so that isn't quite as good as it looks, but if we can keep drilling on shape (in and out of possession) and working on the transitions when we do press and win back the ball, then we should see more effective attacking. Hopefully. 

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He's clearly giving his all to the role with a relatively unexperienced coaching team attempting to completely transform the philosophy throughout the football club. Given his knowledge of each player from the academy upwards, his determination to succeed and the glimpses of potential shown on the pitch (Luton, first half of Brentford), bearing in mind he's had almost no budget to work with.. i'm confident he's the right man for us right now. And the vocal minority (as highlighted brilliantly earlier in the thread by @wilsoncgp) who seem almost desperate for him to fail are the much bigger problem. Praying the quite delusional fans included within that bracket lower their expectations and back the manager and the players ASAP. 

Edited by alexutb
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47 minutes ago, boroie said:

Yep, I qualified the positive with a 'somewhat'. There's green shoots there but we look less effective up top and have an over reliance on crossing that doesn't connect. However we are winning the ball back faster and holding onto it for longer (less hoofing). Now possession stats by themselves are a bit broken anyway so that isn't quite as good as it looks, but if we can keep drilling on shape (in and out of possession) and working on the transitions when we do press and win back the ball, then we should see more effective attacking. Hopefully. 

Also I don't like to go on and on about it but I'm sure the attacking stats would look better if the referees weren't all bent.

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far too early for any conclusions. He could easily have had 10 points from 5 games, although that would probably have given false expectation. He has only had one transfer window also, with only 2 out of 6 problem positions addressed, LB and RB. I don't count Browne as a solution to our wing, as he looks like a work in progress that might take a year to be a viable wing option at this level.

I've seen some tactical naivety, but I've also seen some willingness to try some bold tactics. It hasn't always worked but maybe as the players adapt, and the squad is improved it could be a key to success.

I see no reason to panic, and no reason to start flag waving either. This is a steady the finances and start the transformation type of season. It's about teeing us up for a promotion charge next year. We just have to show enough to keep players like Fry at the club and attract some strong talent.

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There are no reasons to be worried and no reasons to be excited, as soon as the window closed it was mid-lower mid table mediocrity. No blame can be directed at Woody at all imo

Few things that do annoy me, one is the "it won't happen overnight" rhetoric and the other the 'Gibbo is the only chairman that could work at Boro or we'll end up in administration-ers' 

"It", whatever that is, won't happen at all with the squad we've got people need to realise they're asking certain footballers to do what they cannot do i.e. Marvin Johnson is 28 he's not going to become a good championship winger if we give him more time under Woody, he's an upper L1, low end Champ player. Assombalonga is a poacher and a pretty good one at that, he relies on service and in a team as bad as ours going forward how fans can criticise him I'll never understand. 

The Gibson can do no wrong-ers who won't allow any criticism to the chairman because he was once a hero are so annoying too, we've had 6/7 very bad windows in a row and it's obviously Gibson and the recruitment staff's fault, he should be criticised for them and there are plenty of chairmen out there who could do a better job. It's just daft to think otherwise but hey I wasn't alive in '86 so I've 'only ever had it good' and can't ever fault Gibson because 'I wasn't there man!' according to some idiots on twitter. I don't even want Gibson out I just want an experienced knowledgeable director of football brought in that isn't Gibbo's mate or was born in Boro. 

This season's just a filler season till next summer, with so many expiring contracts and players we won't keep hold of, it'll be a make or break transfer window next season and I'm not confident enough in our recruitment to see us competing for promotion for a good number of years. Especially if we need to continue saving 2/3 of whatever we sell players for. 

 

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I’m a bit worried because of the lack of quality which obviously reflects the points total. I would have been so so had the quality been there and points the same. It’s too early to judge but woody stating five additional players are required is concerning. I don’t expect much more than mid table and I still believe this achievable if not slightly higher. 

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At least as we all know he has the time and will gain valuable experience from the job. Sadly to a degree his honeymoon period is over as results are what really matter and whilst we have seen glimpses they have been far and few.

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Not too worried as its a small sample size and its not like we've been thumped yet or are right down the bottom. Look at Stoke and Huddersfield... they should be worried. Also do think we've been unlucky in a couple of games.

I'll be interested to see whether those stats posted above drift further away from Pulis as the season progresses. Many fans (myself included) will take a lower finish if the football improves - and there are shoots of promise.

If the passing is as bad come Christmas I will be worried though. Half a season is long enough to figure out your best XI and some proper patterns of play - Monk was deservedly sacked for not being able to do that. 

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On 8/26/2019 at 9:19 PM, Will said:

7EDD90B8-7AB5-491D-B77A-781D99230876.jpeg

@Will where did you get this from anyway? I'd love to see this every 10 games or so, good indication if we are making any progress

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8 minutes ago, boroie said:

@Will where did you get this from anyway? I'd love to see this every 10 games or so, good indication if we are making any progress

It was a Stoke focused stats page on twitter from memory. He decided to take a break from Stoke and looked at how both us and Derby were transitioning to our new managers.

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No need to worry yet. Realistically we should all have expected it, bar a bit of early season optimism. This is a squad built for years around a defensive approach under Karanka and Pulis, with Monk wasting money somewhere in the middle. Everything was against Woodgate going into this season. No money and wanting to adopt a philosophy the direct opposite to what has been ingrained in these players for years.  Give it until November/December time and if we're still languishing  around the bottom somewhere then we should start to become worried. 

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