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Relegation Battle

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Thats...interesting. I wonder what the margin of error is with those predicted finishes?

 

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22 minutes ago, BoroAbroad said:

Too close for comfort thats for sure.

Our 27% chance of relegation will massively increase if we lose on Saturday. I’m guessing a loss will swing it to 50% to 60% chance of relegation. Terrifying prospect.

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The only stat that will count is where we are at the end of the season, we've seen the gazette predictor, did anyone have Wigan beating  West Brom away.. Everyone to their own but in football I don't take much notice of  predictions, and probabilities.. 

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We need to look at getting some defensive solidity back to our side, we have to make ourselves tough to beat, then hope for a bit of magic up top. I think we will get out of this, but we need scrape a few points until Roberts and Ayala get, back they are good enough to be game changing for us.

There are so many issues in our squad that whatever formation we put out, there will be weak or unsuitable players, but I think we need to find a way of protecting our defence better. 4-2-3-1 probably suits us as much as any formation right now. It allows us to get some experience and quality on the pitch, while minimising square pegs in round holes, or too many kids.

For me, if we get Ayala and Roberts fit then:

.............................Pears

Shotton.......Ayala.........Moukoudi........Friend

...................Howson....Saville

........Roberts........Wing...........Coulson

.....................Fletcher

You could argue Stojanovic for Pears, Clayton for Saville, Nmecha on the right, Roberts at 10, Gestede at CF, but that just highlights how this formation is probably best suited for us.

That team should be strong enough to keep us up, even with a few personnel changes. We need maybe 4 wins to stay up, so get it sorted, get it embedded. We need to free Howson from RB to strengthen the midfield, we need to get Wing further forward where he can shoot without leaving midfield bereft, we need Roberts and Ayala back asap.

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45 minutes ago, p_mards said:

Our 27% chance of relegation will massively increase if we lose on Saturday. I’m guessing a loss will swing it to 50% to 60% chance of relegation. Terrifying prospect.

Maybe, but a win will swing it to 10% and a draw to 22%.

I think there is a 50% chance of both us and Charlton surviving. My tip is Luton, Barnsley and Hull.  Hull have dropped like a stone and the dressing room moral must be terrible losing their two best and most creative players. Luton and Barnsley have done well recently, but they are not good sides. We did well in December but it all fell apart again, and it will for those two teams.

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It's clear we are not in a good predicament, but i do feel like our table position makes the reality seem worse than it is.

22nd is bad, but we are only 5 points away from being 17th and we still have to play 3 of those teams.

Out of the teams we are in competition with i feel like we have the easiest run (I know that no match is an easy match in the Championship). Not only that, i believe we are the better team out of everyone at the bottom.

The optimist in me thinks we will get an 18th placement by the end of the season. The pessimist thinks a close 21st.

Regardless, i am going to continue to remain as positive as i can.

 

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3 minutes ago, ThisIzLeon said:

It's clear we are not in a good predicament, but i do feel like our table position makes the reality seem worse than it is.

22nd is bad, but we are only 5 points away from being 17th and we still have to play 3 of those teams.

Out of the teams we are in competition with i feel like we have the easiest run (I know that no match is an easy match in the Championship). Not only that, i believe we are the better team out of everyone at the bottom.

The optimist in me thinks we will get an 18th placement by the end of the season. The pessimist thinks a close 21st.

Regardless, i am going to continue to remain as positive as i can.

 

We have gained 5 points in the last 8 games, playing the bottom 3 in that run. I admire your optimism but do not share it. The table doesnt lie at this time of year. 

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34 minutes ago, TheJew said:

I wouldnt be starting Nmecha!

I would love to know who scouts these people.

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2 hours ago, BoroMart said:

 

.............................Pears

Shotton.......Ayala.........Moukoudi........Friend

...................Howson....Saville

........Roberts........Wing...........Coulson

.....................Fletcher

 

I'd go for that but I think Clayton has to play. As much as I dislike what he represents, right now I think we need the work-rate and grind that no other midfielder brings. If there's a shot at goal he'll dive in front of it whereas someone like  Saville turns their back.

 

15 minutes ago, GrimsbyBoro said:

I would love to know who scouts these people.

No one was saying that when he signed.. 

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3 minutes ago, mendieta420 said:

No one was saying that when he signed.. 

There were a fair few who pointed to his record with Preston (4 goals in 30 odd appearances I believe). 

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6 minutes ago, mendieta420 said:

I'd go for that but I think Clayton has to play. As much as I dislike what he represents, right now I think we need the work-rate and grind that no other midfielder brings. If there's a shot at goal he'll dive in front of it whereas someone like  Saville turns their back.

 

No one was saying that when he signed.. 

What a load of tosh. Saville is one of if not the midfielder that gets stuck in the most. He wins so many scrappy 50/50’s and a lot of headers. More then Clayton, McNair, Tav and Wing. I honestly don’t have a clue where you get that opinion of Saville from.

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