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COVID-19 Life now and beyond


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I had my test results back and they were positive for Covid-19.. So lucky that I just had the mild symptoms!! 

Hope everyone's doing well and keeping healthy! Haven't posted for a few months due to being busy and the lack of football, but had a gradual read through this thread. Crazy looking back at the f

Branson owns an island and a spaceship, but he wants aid from the government and he’s happy to hang his employees out to dry the man is callous. 

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1 hour ago, Changing Times said:

I might be being thick here but if millions of people have already had it then presumably they already have the antibodies?

You are right, but antibodies will only last for a relatively short time (upto 6 month roughly) and they decrease in number over that time too. So you then become prone to re-infection again. Where as these vaccines illicit much stronger immune reactions, that have the potential to last significantly longer and also make you much more resistant to re-infection.

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3 minutes ago, DanFromDownSouth said:

You are right, but antibodies will only last for a relatively short time (upto 6 month roughly) and they decrease in number over that time too. So you then become prone to re-infection again. Where as these vaccines illicit much stronger immune reactions, that have the potential to last significantly longer and also make you much more resistant to re-infection.

Just to add to this, there are some very early findings that the antibodies and the overall immune response, is much better when someone is infected with COVID than other viruses. So the antibodies could well last longer than 6 months or so. But obviously you then have to rely on a large proportion of the population catching it and surviving it to achieve herd immunity. Whereas with mass vaccination you can achieve the same results without needing people to catch it.

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There are apparently around one and three quarter million who have tested positive for the virus in the UK. At a crude guess if that many have had it to the point of seeking and getting a test and/or treatment (even if it was just to go home, take an aspirin or two and isolate) then I would suspect that at least double that many have had it if not even three to four times that amount (or even more), especially bearing in mind that young people don't seem to suffer major symptoms other than a cold or mild flu.

It would be interesting if the government put up some figures on Population and the amount of vaccine treatment required. For example people under 40 probably won't be vaccinated urgently as they can fight it and build up their own immunity, the amount of people that have already had it and so therefore don't need to be urgent for a vaccine and those who are over say 60/70/80 etc. or who have a medical condition putting them at risk or perhaps from an ethnic background making them more susceptible or a combination of several factors.

My own crude calculations out of the 68 million people in the UK that would be requiring vaccination to get things under control as quick as possible would be as follows. 21% of the overall population of England and Wales are aged under 18 years, 29%  aged 18 to 39 years, 27% aged 40 to 59 years, and 22% aged 60 years and over. I think its reasonable to suggest that those percentages are probably the same or similar for Scotland which are included in the 68 million UK total.

Using those figures as a base then, the under 18's are 14 million, 18 to 39 are around 20 million, the age group 40 to 59 are about 18 million. The most vulnerable group are the over 60's which equates to about 15 million. Ideally everyone over 30 gets immunised in time and even younger if data suggests it makes sense but to seriously bring the death rate down (based on the 80/20 principle) quickly we are talking two injections for 15 million of the over 60's which is 30 million injections. The question then is how soon can the Government acquire and roll out 30 million injections?

 

 

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2 hours ago, DanFromDownSouth said:

You are right, but antibodies will only last for a relatively short time (upto 6 month roughly) and they decrease in number over that time too. So you then become prone to re-infection again. Where as these vaccines illicit much stronger immune reactions, that have the potential to last significantly longer and also make you much more resistant to re-infection.

There are also the memory T and B cells though. Once the antibodies have gone, these cells remember the virus and as soon as they encounter it, can produce antibodies again and start attacking from the off. The memory B cells particularly stick around for a long time after infection. E.g. people who got the smallpox vaccine still had high levels of B cell immunity to smallpox 60 years later.

 

That's why there are so few cases of reinfection with covid 19, and the people who do get reinfected are generally less ill. 

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56 minutes ago, boro-unger said:

There are also the memory T and B cells though. Once the antibodies have gone, these cells remember the virus and as soon as they encounter it, can produce antibodies again and start attacking from the off. The memory B cells particularly stick around for a long time after infection. E.g. people who got the smallpox vaccine still had high levels of B cell immunity to smallpox 60 years later.

Yeah I remember us talking about the T-cell response earlier in the year and the B-cells are the ones that actually produce antibodies right? So as you say although the actual anti-bodies drop, the memory of how to create them remains. 

I think the early indications are that potentially if you get COVID you could well end up with that natural immunity for a long time to come. They think the immune responses could be similar to the original SARS, where they've found people with still with immune responses 17 years after they were infected.

But obviously you'd need to have it in the first place.

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53 minutes ago, DanFromDownSouth said:

Yeah I remember us talking about the T-cell response earlier in the year and the B-cells are the ones that actually produce antibodies right? So as you say although the actual anti-bodies drop, the memory of how to create them remains. 

I think the early indications are that potentially if you get COVID you could well end up with that natural immunity for a long time to come. They think the immune responses could be similar to the original SARS, where they've found people with still with immune responses 17 years after they were infected.

But obviously you'd need to have it in the first place.

Yeah the B cells present a specific antibody on their surface, then when the antibody on the B cell comes into contact with the antigen/virus, the B cell generate lots of antibodies and spews them out. 

 

Yes I've heard that people who had the original SARS, and even people who've had the MMR vaccine could have some cross immunity to SARS-COV 2.

 

From what i've seen, I think either having covid19 or the vaccine will probably give long term immunity. It could also give cross immunity to the next SARS Cov virus that comes along. Hopefully anyway! 

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8 minutes ago, boro-unger said:

Yeah the B cells present a specific antibody on their surface, then when the antibody on the B cell comes into contact with the antigen/virus, the B cell generate lots of antibodies and spews them out. 

 

Yes I've heard that people who had the original SARS, and even people who've had the MMR vaccine could have some cross immunity to SARS-COV 2.

 

From what i've seen, I think either having covid19 or the vaccine will probably give long term immunity. It could also give cross immunity to the next SARS Cov virus that comes along. Hopefully anyway! 

That's when the surface of the antibodies basically have to fit the shape and surface of the virus, almost like a jigsaw. Weirdly I remember having an issue of new scientist years ago, and they had a picture of a virus cell, it looked like a hexagon with legs. It's pretty crazy to think how much our bodies are able to do at a cellular level.

Yeah they are all from the same "family" of virus, so hopefully we can get some form of immunity for a range of them. By the sounds of it the mRNA style of vaccines should help a lot in that aspect compared the type of vaccines currently in use. 🤞🤞🤞

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16 hours ago, Redcar Rioja said:

There are apparently around one and three quarter million who have tested positive for the virus in the UK. At a crude guess if that many have had it to the point of seeking and getting a test and/or treatment (even if it was just to go home, take an aspirin or two and isolate) then I would suspect that at least double that many have had it if not even three to four times that amount (or even more), especially bearing in mind that young people don't seem to suffer major symptoms other than a cold or mild flu.

It would be interesting if the government put up some figures on Population and the amount of vaccine treatment required. For example people under 40 probably won't be vaccinated urgently as they can fight it and build up their own immunity, the amount of people that have already had it and so therefore don't need to be urgent for a vaccine and those who are over say 60/70/80 etc. or who have a medical condition putting them at risk or perhaps from an ethnic background making them more susceptible or a combination of several factors.

My own crude calculations out of the 68 million people in the UK that would be requiring vaccination to get things under control as quick as possible would be as follows. 21% of the overall population of England and Wales are aged under 18 years, 29%  aged 18 to 39 years, 27% aged 40 to 59 years, and 22% aged 60 years and over. I think its reasonable to suggest that those percentages are probably the same or similar for Scotland which are included in the 68 million UK total.

Using those figures as a base then, the under 18's are 14 million, 18 to 39 are around 20 million, the age group 40 to 59 are about 18 million. The most vulnerable group are the over 60's which equates to about 15 million. Ideally everyone over 30 gets immunised in time and even younger if data suggests it makes sense but to seriously bring the death rate down (based on the 80/20 principle) quickly we are talking two injections for 15 million of the over 60's which is 30 million injections. The question then is how soon can the Government acquire and roll out 30 million injections?

 

 

According to a news article I watched yesterday, they estimate that around 60% of the population (including the most vulnerable groups - elderly, underlying health issues etc.) need to be vaccinated, in order to prevent a widespread recurrence. Which at a very rough estimate would be around 40 million. Given each person will need 2 doses, thats in the region of 80 million injections.

Last report I saw stated several hundred thousand doses will be available, starting next week.

While the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has been approved, there will be problems rolling it out quickly, as it has to be kept in cryogenic storage (-70C) until it is ready to use...which means the large batches it is shipped in can't be readily broken down into smaller amounts and transported to individual premises (which is why they are trying to set up local vaccination centres).

The Oxford-AstraZeneca one can be stored at normal fridge temperatures, so will be much easier to get to those who are isolating or find it difficult to travel...but still awaiting approval from MHRA.

Any way you cut it, its going to take over a year - they're estimating around 16 months - to get everyone who needs it, fully immunised.

 

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22 minutes ago, AnglianRed said:

According to a news article I watched yesterday, they estimate that around 60% of the population (including the most vulnerable groups - elderly, underlying health issues etc.) need to be vaccinated, in order to prevent a widespread recurrence. Which at a very rough estimate would be around 40 million. Given each person will need 2 doses, thats in the region of 80 million injections.

Last report I saw stated several hundred thousand doses will be available, starting next week.

While the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has been approved, there will be problems rolling it out quickly, as it has to be kept in cryogenic storage (-70C) until it is ready to use...which means the large batches it is shipped in can't be readily broken down into smaller amounts and transported to individual premises (which is why they are trying to set up local vaccination centres).

The Oxford-AstraZeneca one can be stored at normal fridge temperatures, so will be much easier to get to those who are isolating or find it difficult to travel...but still awaiting approval from MHRA.

Any way you cut it, its going to take over a year - they're estimating around 16 months - to get everyone who needs it, fully immunised.

 

It can be kept at normal fridge temperatures for up to 5 days before use.

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2 hours ago, Will said:

It can be kept at normal fridge temperatures for up to 5 days before use.

Yes but when you think about the numbers that need to be vaccinated, the amount of vaccine required and the capacity of the vaccination centres, they are still only going to be able to have relatively small amounts refrigerated at any given time. 

 

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With Temperatures being a determining factor its going to be extremely difficult to vaccinate the masses with such a logistical drawback. Not impossible but imagine trying to get retirement homes vaccinated. It's OK I guess if everyone able bodied is given an appointment time, place and date to attend but even then it has to be in a reasonable travel area.

Its maybe fine for a Family of four to be told to attend a centre together in their Car. A trip say to the RVI from Teesside could be a two and a half hour round trip in a Car or six or more likely even more hours trying to get via Public Transport.

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22 minutes ago, Redcar Rioja said:

With Temperatures being a determining factor its going to be extremely difficult to vaccinate the masses with such a logistical drawback. Not impossible but imagine trying to get retirement homes vaccinated. It's OK I guess if everyone able bodied is given an appointment time, place and date to attend but even then it has to be in a reasonable travel area.

Its maybe fine for a Family of four to be told to attend a centre together in their Car. A trip say to the RVI from Teesside could be a two and a half hour round trip in a Car or six or more likely even more hours trying to get via Public Transport.

Temperature does make it more complex, but I can’t see why it’s insurmountable. As said above it is ok at fridge terms for 5 days. The vaccine containers are tiny, so size and weight isn’t an issue. A chap in a refrigerated van  could drive 2 hours from a deep freeze centre and still have plenty of time to drop off at say 15 doctors surgeries in a town enough vaccine for the next three days of vaccinations. It’s only a bit more demanding ( in the sense of not dropping it off at the front door or throwing it up the garden path) logistics delivery like all the courier firms do daily.  A drop off twice a week would be enough to ensure any location authorized to give the vaccinations doesn’t run out. This would also work for medical practices going out to care homes etc. vials could be dropped off at the surgery ready to be taken out the next day.

I think actually organizing enough staff to do the jabs and record them and make sure people are given a second appointment at right interval is more of an issue. Also, I read somewhere you had to stay for around 10 minute afterwards to ensure you had no side effects. If that is the case, then fitting everyone in is more of an issue. I think they will commandeer some large sports halls etc where they can have a lot of people in at once but still isolating from each other.

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