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COVID-19 And it’s effect on everyone and everything

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1 minute ago, SouthernSmoggie said:

Almost as bad as all these internet nutjobs that think they know better than the wise and talented Jonathan Woodgate.

Wonder if we could do a swap?

Get that Ghebreyesus bloke in to manage Boro and have Woody in charge of the WHO? 😁

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1 hour ago, Neverbefore said:

I honestly cant believe the number of people who think they know better than the world health organisation.

Depends what the subject is I suppose.  I'd like to think I could give them a run for their money on several different subjects 😎

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7 minutes ago, Neverbefore said:

This is the worst argument I see regularly.

Who cares if i am unlikely to die from this if there are millions out there who might? What about my parents? My friends who have suffered illnesses that naturally make their immune system weak?

I think the  biggest thing that this virus has exposed is countries lack of basic bloody empathy.

That’s the state of the nation these days, I’m afraid. 

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7 minutes ago, AnglianRed said:

We're still in the first half of the "bell curve". Cases are expected to increase for the next couple of weeks (at least).

Need to keep reminding yourself the majority of people will only experience flu-like symptoms. Its only really dangerous to elderly people with underlying health issues.

 

If you are elderly and have existing health issues...then feel free to panic. 

 

I think part of the issue is that people don't have immunity to it that we know of yet anyway.  The flu occurs every year but most people don't get it.  With this thing it's possible that huge numbers of people could get it and get it over the same period of time and this is a massive problem.  You can't compare it to the flu just because some of the symptoms are the same, it's a completely different situation and that's why health experts are concerned.

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3 minutes ago, Changing Times said:

I think part of the issue is that people don't have immunity to it that we know of yet anyway.  The flu occurs every year but most people don't get it.  With this thing it's possible that huge numbers of people could get it and get it over the same period of time and this is a massive problem.  You can't compare it to the flu just because some of the symptoms are the same, it's a completely different situation and that's why health experts are concerned.

It’s not great reading for the likes of us older folk is it CT?

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6 minutes ago, Neverbefore said:

One mans obsessing over stats is another mans acknowledgement of facts.

Well the facts are the UK still has the lowest numbers of infections and deaths in Europe - roughly 1/3 the cases in France, Germany & Spain and about 20 times fewer than Italy.

 

4 minutes ago, Neverbefore said:

This is the worst argument I see regularly.

Who cares if i am unlikely to die from this if there are millions out there who might? What about my parents? My friends who have suffered illnesses that naturally make their immune system weak?

I think the  biggest thing that this virus has exposed is countries lack of basic bloody empathy.

Well since I don't have any elderly or infirm relatives, I can probably claim a certain lack of empathy.

But looking at it from a logical standpoint, what good does panicking do? Also virus spreads tend to follow established statistical trends, so its not a "bad argument". It is factual. Its just not very comforting if you happen to be one of those stats.

Also, how do you expect the government to physically stop people getting infected...short of bringing the country to a standstill? The best anyone can do is manage & mitigate. The public also have their own responsibility to follow the guidance issued by PHE.

Its a crappy situation but we just have to get through it as best we can. 

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You don’t have to be related to people to have empathy, you are allowed to care about the plight of people that you don’t know. 

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6 minutes ago, Changing Times said:

I think part of the issue is that people don't have immunity to it that we know of yet anyway.  The flu occurs every year but most people don't get it.  With this thing it's possible that huge numbers of people could get it and get it over the same period of time and this is a massive problem.  You can't compare it to the flu just because some of the symptoms are the same, it's a completely different situation and that's why health experts are concerned.

Fair point. Although worldwide, flu kills tens of thousands of people every year...despite the fact vaccines are prepared for it.

Coronavirus is a different entity, but to date has resulted in far fewer deaths.

 

2 minutes ago, BillyWoofs_shinpad said:

It’s not great reading for the likes of us older folk is it CT?

For what its worth it seems they are going to begin human testing of a vaccine next month. If you oldies can just hold on long enough... 😜

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0863tvj

 

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1 hour ago, Neverbefore said:

I honestly cant believe the number of people who think they know better than the world health organisation. There is an element of overreaction in the sense of hoarding goods unnecessarily - though I think that is more a question of selfishness than overreaction - but this is a massive and very real threat to the country. 

This is not equivalent to the common flu. The agreed mortality rate for this virus is between 0.5-4%, making it at its lowest 5 times more deadly than the flu and at its highest 40 times more deadly. With the added element of the unknown (we dont fully understand how it is spread, how infectious it is etc) this is not just a simple flu and given the chance it can cause crazy levels of illness/death demand for healthcare that isnt available, economic and social damage. Every single expert agrees with this.

The problems with these figures are numerous. If 80% of patients don't get symptoms severe enough to bother getting tested (WHO and Public Health England numbers) then the vast majority of your 'infected' population never even gets counted in these figures, exaggerating the mortality rate possibly 4-5x. Another issue is under reporting of cases, there is some speculation that Iran could potentially have millions of infected citizens but are only reporting a few thousand at the moment for their own political agenda. The other issue is that in some countries there appears to be significantly less aggressive strains of the virus, leading speculation that this virus could be significantly more widespread than anyone has predicted, if this is the case, given the lack of reported deaths from it, the death rate would drop even further. 

 

Death rates are useful up to a point, but until a virus has fully ran it's course, or at least a full year cycle, they can be wildly off the mark. The death rate for flu is based on years and years of historical data, using an early stage death rate for the current virus is like trying to use a league table after 3 games to see who will win the league.

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4 minutes ago, AnglianRed said:

Well the facts are the UK still has the lowest numbers of infections and deaths in Europe - roughly 1/3 the cases in France, Germany & Spain and about 20 times fewer than Italy.

 

This is explained quite simply in the following graphic. Quite simply were behind in terms of when the outbreak started. In 2 weeks we will be in the same timeframe as where italy are now, with today's increase the chances are looking higher that we could end up in the same situation.

As for panic.. no one is promoting panic. We are looking for appropriate measures to be taken and not just boris's wait  around and see. Every other major country in europe is going into various stages of lockdown - why do you thing that Britain is right and they are wrong?

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Just now, Will said:

The problems with these figures are numerous. If 80% of patients don't get symptoms severe enough to bother getting tested (WHO and Public Health England numbers) then the vast majority of your 'infected' population never even gets counted in these figures, exaggerating the mortality rate possibly 4-5x. Another issue is under reporting of cases, there is some speculation that Iran could potentially have millions of infected citizens but are only reporting a few thousand at the moment for their own political agenda. The other issue is that in some countries there appears to be significantly less aggressive strains of the virus, leading speculation that this virus could be significantly more widespread than anyone has predicted, if this is the case, given the lack of reported deaths from it, the death rate would drop even further. 

 

Death rates are useful up to a point, but until a virus has fully ran it's course, or at least a full year cycle, they can be wildly off the mark. The death rate for flu is based on years and years of historical data, using an early stage death rate for the current virus is like trying to use a league table after 3 games to see who will win the league.

The 0.5-4% estimate is taking into account all of those mitigating factors. The current figure of known 3.9% mortality rate is obviously not an exact science which is why they have provided the range that I've quoted 

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6 minutes ago, BillyWoofs_shinpad said:

You don’t have to be related to people to have empathy, you are allowed to care about the plight of people that you don’t know. 

Well I guess thats where I fall down.

I mean, I donate to charities regularly, to help them do their work, but I can't say I spend any time worrying about people I don't know and will never meet.

I guess I've just accepted that the world is a crappy, unfair place and that there is little I can do as an individual to change that.

 

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We're all gonna die at some point so I'm not overly concerned for myself. 

If this virus does kill me I can die happy after seeing a great season of football from Woody's team. 

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12 minutes ago, Neverbefore said:

This is explained quite simply in the following graphic. Quite simply were behind in terms of when the outbreak started. In 2 weeks we will be in the same timeframe as where italy are now, with today's increase the chances are looking higher that we could end up in the same situation.

As for panic.. no one is promoting panic. We are looking for appropriate measures to be taken and not just boris's wait  around and see. Every other major country in europe is going into various stages of lockdown - why do you thing that Britain is right and they are wrong?

Interesting. So in about 2 weeks' time we should have over 7,000 diagnosed cases and over 350 deaths.

See you in 2 weeks on that score.

 

Also if you'd caught the budget statement today, you'd have heard the measures the government is putting in place to manage the virus. Certainly not adopting a "wait and see" approach.

Your constant references to "Boris" also speak to a highly biased anti-Tory stance, rather than rational, logical train of thought.

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49 minutes ago, AnglianRed said:

Wonder if we could do a swap?

Get that Ghebreyesus bloke in to manage Boro and have Woody in charge of the WHO? 😁

I don't think Roger Daltry would be too happy with that ......

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