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COVID-19 And it’s effect on everyone and everything

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4 hours ago, Uwe said:

Boris confirmed with COVID-19. Expect 2,000,000 ventilators inbound in the next 24 hours 😳

One case obviously doesn't mean anything but I'm more and more inclined to believe that the number of people carrying this in the UK, or who have had it, is many times the official figures.  Even more than I was guessing at before now.

I've been tracking the comparison between Italy and the UK as I read somewhere that it was believed we were two weeks behind them.  One slightly comforting thing I've seen is that the rate of increase in fatalities here has been nothing like over there and in fact it was continuing to diverge away.  At one point a few days back we had 60% of the total number here after the same number of days since each nation's first fatality.  That steadily dropped to just over 40% indicating the divergence.  However, the last couple of days has seen it jump up for the first time to just over 50%.  It might mean nothing at all as each nation records their fatalities in different ways but I was hoping it meant that the flatter peak we were hoping for might be coming to fruition.  The fact that it has increased is a little bit worrying though for obvious reasons, I sincerely hope that it doesn't continue to do so.

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I know lots of people who (almost certainly) have/have had Coronavirus but haven't been tested, including myself, my wife, my wife's friend and her husband, two separate clients of my business, neighbours...the list goes on. None of us are currently included in the official statistics, which is hugely diminishing their accuracy and relevance. Once these long-awaited home testing tests finally start arriving en masse, statisticians will be able to make accurate calculations for the first time.

On another note, if Boris, Prince Charles and other high-profile people make a swift recovery, it'll hopefully calm some of the panic among people who haven't caught the virus yet. It might even encourage the powers that be to start partially lifting the lockdown. Keep mass gatherings off the menu, no professional sports, no nightclubs or concerts, but maybe re-open some outdoor facilities like play parks and let people visit friends providing everyone stays indoors.

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27 minutes ago, northern boro said:

The Premier League & Football League are now suspended until at least April 30th

That was already the case, I'm not sure why Boro released today's statement as there's almost no new information in it.

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1 hour ago, Changing Times said:

That's not going to happen for at least a couple of weeks and it'll probably be longer than that.

Yes, I was meaning when this three-week period ends, or the Monday after, which is the day everyone would have gone back to work/school after Easter. Doubt anything will change before then, but that would be an opportune moment to lift the burden slightly while keeping riskier things like sporting events off the menu.

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47 minutes ago, TeaCider24 said:

That was already the case, I'm not sure why Boro released today's statement as there's almost no new information in it.

Yes, they seem to have had a meeting to decide they need another meeting...

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3 hours ago, RiseAgainst said:

I know lots of people who (almost certainly) have/have had Coronavirus but haven't been tested, including myself, my wife, my wife's friend and her husband, two separate clients of my business, neighbours...the list goes on. None of us are currently included in the official statistics, which is hugely diminishing their accuracy and relevance. Once these long-awaited home testing tests finally start arriving en masse, statisticians will be able to make accurate calculations for the first time.

On another note, if Boris, Prince Charles and other high-profile people make a swift recovery, it'll hopefully calm some of the panic among people who haven't caught the virus yet. It might even encourage the powers that be to start partially lifting the lockdown. Keep mass gatherings off the menu, no professional sports, no nightclubs or concerts, but maybe re-open some outdoor facilities like play parks and let people visit friends providing everyone stays indoors.

That was exactly my thoughts as well 

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Wishful thinking. Every bit of evidence suggests this is getting worse rather than better. Looking at other countries as well as our own governments estimate, the peak of this wont hit for another 7 or 8 weeks. Were more likely to see more restrictions rather than fewer.

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Ireland going into full lockdown from midnight tonight 

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8 minutes ago, Blanco said:

Ireland going into full lockdown from midnight tonight 

Take care Blanco. Hope you and your family are well. I cant emphasise enough that you take it as seriously as you possibly can, especially for any vulnerable family members. Thinking of you and your family, though I am sure you will all be well 👍

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4 minutes ago, TAPOUT said:

Take care Blanco. Hope you and your family are well. I cant emphasise enough that you take it as seriously as you possibly can, especially for any vulnerable family members. Thinking of you and your family, though I am sure you will all be well 👍

Thank you TAPOUT. So far we are all well and are going to abide with the lockdown. It’s a small price to pay in the wider scheme of things. I hope all on here stay safe and sound and wish all well.

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I don't imagine us setting any more restrictions than we have. What else can we do other than further enforce the ones we already have?

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5 hours ago, Changing Times said:

One case obviously doesn't mean anything but I'm more and more inclined to believe that the number of people carrying this in the UK, or who have had it, is many times the official figures.  Even more than I was guessing at before now.

I've been tracking the comparison between Italy and the UK as I read somewhere that it was believed we were two weeks behind them.  One slightly comforting thing I've seen is that the rate of increase in fatalities here has been nothing like over there and in fact it was continuing to diverge away.  At one point a few days back we had 60% of the total number here after the same number of days since each nation's first fatality.  That steadily dropped to just over 40% indicating the divergence.  However, the last couple of days has seen it jump up for the first time to just over 50%.  It might mean nothing at all as each nation records their fatalities in different ways but I was hoping it meant that the flatter peak we were hoping for might be coming to fruition.  The fact that it has increased is a little bit worrying though for obvious reasons, I sincerely hope that it doesn't continue to do so.

The problem with following fatalities at this point is that you are measuring a saturated healthcare system in Italy, which is not representative of the situation a two weeks ago. The  most significant metric is the number of new cases, but as you have noted, different countries may measure different things. At the minute, other than the cabinet and royalty, we are meant to be testing the Most severe cases. Those that have been admitted to hospital. From that, the mortality rate for the most severe cases is 5%. This is not representative of the whole population, but those admitted to hospital. 
Whilst being similar to influenza it has the ability to infect up to 4x more people and be 4x more lethal, especially to the vulnerable. That is why we need to take this lockdown seriously and possibly why it will be extended, especially if people dont take it seriously. 

As for the footy season, If it is to restart I would expect it to be behind closed doors around June. As thereis a Winter world cup it mayjust align the season to that for 21/22.

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26 minutes ago, wilsoncgp said:

I don't imagine us setting any more restrictions than we have. What else can we do other than further enforce the ones we already have?

Thats right, though the longer the restrictions the greater the economic hit. My gut feeling is that the government feel that herd immunity is the way to go until a vaccine comes along in the next 12-18 months. What they are doing now is Building up intensive care provision and treatments that may mitigate the effects of COVID 19 until the vaccine is ready.

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