Jump to content
oneBoro Forum
OzzyPorter

COVID-19 And it’s effect on everyone and everything

Recommended Posts

37 minutes ago, TAPOUT said:

The problem with following fatalities at this point is that you are measuring a saturated healthcare system in Italy, which is not representative of the situation a two weeks ago. The  most significant metric is the number of new cases, but as you have noted, different countries may measure different things. At the minute, other than the cabinet and royalty, we are meant to be testing the Most severe cases. Those that have been admitted to hospital. From that, the mortality rate for the most severe cases is 5%. This is not representative of the whole population, but those admitted to hospital. 
Whilst being similar to influenza it has the ability to infect up to 4x more people and be 4x more lethal, especially to the vulnerable. That is why we need to take this lockdown seriously and possibly why it will be extended, especially if people dont take it seriously. 

As for the footy season, If it is to restart I would expect it to be behind closed doors around June. As thereis a Winter world cup it mayjust align the season to that for 21/22.

No, I think you have misunderstood what I was looking at.  I haven't been comparing Italy now and the UK now, I've been comparing Italy a couple of weeks ago with the UK now, looking at each days changes in numbers.  So we are on day 22 since the first fatality here and I was looking at day 22 over in Italy to see where they were at.  I did this because I'd read in a few places days ago that we were two weeks behind Italy because the fatalities and number of cases at those corresponding dates were almost exactly the same.  That to me didn't quite make sense as a comparison unless the rate of increase was the same in both countries and that's what I was looking at with this.  It seemed quite clear that the rate of increase in Italy was greater than here all the way through the pandemic but that has shifted slightly over the last 24 hours.  In terms of day on day increases, ours was higher for the first time today.

So, the first fatality here was on the 5th March and the first fatality in Italy was on 21st February.  Counting forward you can measure each days increase and see the rate of change.  You can then put them side by side and look at how they compare.  Today we sadly saw 181 fatalities announced.  On the corresponding day in Italy, 175 lives were lost.  That's the first time that the increase in total here has been higher than Italy's.  Over the previous few days the gap was actually getting greater between the two countries but all of a sudden today it swung around the other way.  Tomorrow, Italy's corresponding day saw an increase of 368, if ours is lower than that then the trend that mostly has been seen will be continuing.  If it's more then it's a sizeable shift in the other direction.

It's the rate of increase that was interesting me rather than the totals.  If our rate of increase is lower and if we truly are a couple of weeks behind them then our fatalities won't reach the level that Italy has.  Not exactly good news but less bad, bad news.  I can't even believe I'm typing about this kind of thing on here to be honest.  What a shitty time this is.  I bet you'd all rather be talking about accounts and player wages now eh 😢

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, RiseAgainst said:

Yes, I was meaning when this three-week period ends, or the Monday after, which is the day everyone would have gone back to work/school after Easter. Doubt anything will change before then, but that would be an opportune moment to lift the burden slightly while keeping riskier things like sporting events off the menu.

I'm not sure what they could start allowing people to do that wouldn't be risky?  Even people who have had the virus could still transfer it from someone else with it to someone else without it, if it got on their hands or whatever.  The fact that they've asked vulnerable people to hole themselves up for 12 weeks is hopefully going to help and then maybe the less vulnerable could return to some normal activities but I'm really not sure what that would be?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The graph here is kind of trying to do a similar thing to what I think CT is looking at. This is measuring cumulative deaths in each country against the number of days since the 10th death in that country. 
 

Unfortunately the graph is a bit busy, I’d prefer if it showed less countries but I couldn’t find another version. 
 

The more vertical the line the worse it is.  The uk seems to be following the Italy and Spain trajectory very closely which is a worry.  

 

037A87A6-BF72-45E5-B4FB-DF1CA0759709.thumb.png.931a81ab7ca002d5efe19dc57b1d1062.png

Edited by sackrobson2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, mate, that's pretty much it.  I should have looked around for some graphs to save myself the trouble.  Theirs is miles better as you would expect.  I'm not sure what the significance of starting from the 10th death is but there must be a good reason for it.  I just looked from the first to see what I could see.  After 15 days based on their way of looking at it then Italy and the UK are on similar paths but we are still a bit lower than Italy.  Based on my way of looking at it there would be greater difference and that difference was slightly increasing, well, until today anyway.  The last two days have seen quite big jumps for us sadly, hoping for better news later today.  I also hope that curve is showing Italy's situation flattening out, maybe even Spain's starting to do the same as well 🙏

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Driving home from work last night, saw so many people in the Thorntree area just blatantly ignoring the government's orders and wandering about. Groups of teenagers, old people walking their dogs (it doesn't take two people to walk a dog!) and there was one house which looked like they were having a party!

Not a single police car in sight, either. I thought they said they were going to start seriously cracking down on this irresponsible behaviour?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, Denzel Zanzibar said:

Driving home from work last night, saw so many people in the Thorntree area just blatantly ignoring the government's orders and wandering about. Groups of teenagers, old people walking their dogs (it doesn't take two people to walk a dog!) and there was one house which looked like they were having a party!

Not a single police car in sight, either. I thought they said they were going to start seriously cracking down on this irresponsible behaviour?

Saying and doing might be a very hard thing to do, we do not know if the Police are at full force and cuts in overall man power over the years will leave it impossible for said action.

There will be shows of strength and action from time to time concentrating on certain areas and enforcement but that again will be a drain on recourses unless the Army assist.

Plus each and every officer is at risk of being exposed more regularly and transmitting to their own families leading to more isolation and reduction of active available man power.

You may see the odd "panda" car driving around interacting with MOP but they will deal more with drivers rather than chasing a group of youngsters over a field.

Sadly parents will not "police" their own family nor will they be able to trust that their off spring will follow the limits of going outside.

We will probably see more drones than police officers 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh and to *** me off even further, I was stopped on my way to work by police on the A19. Good job I had my letter with me, although the hi-viz vest I always wear should have been enough of a clue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Denzel Zanzibar said:

Oh and to *** me off even further, I was stopped on my way to work by police on the A19. Good job I had my letter with me, although the hi-viz vest I always wear should have been enough of a clue.

One group of people who are never welcome anywhere will need special attention and that is the actions of travellers, where will they be allowed to stay because as I see it all of the government orders have to apply to them also.

Whilst local authorities may act quickly to remove them someone will need to make a choice of allowing them to settle (and all issues which will follow) or simply move them on causing further interaction across the country. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Downsouth said:

One group of people who are never welcome anywhere will need special attention and that is the actions of travellers, where will they be allowed to stay because as I see it all of the government orders have to apply to them also.

Whilst local authorities may act quickly to remove them someone will need to make a choice of allowing them to settle (and all issues which will follow) or simply move them on causing further interaction across the country. 

As I type this there's a caravan in a layby on the A689 fully set up with a TV aerial sticking out the top, running eletricity off a portable generator. 

It's a road that police patrol often, so I wonder how on earth it's still there. It's been there for nearly a week now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Denzel Zanzibar said:

Driving home from work last night, saw so many people in the Thorntree area just blatantly ignoring the government's orders and wandering about. Groups of teenagers, old people walking their dogs (it doesn't take two people to walk a dog!) and there was one house which looked like they were having a party!

Not a single police car in sight, either. I thought they said they were going to start seriously cracking down on this irresponsible behaviour?

Has been groups of teenagers up and down the banks of the Tees on a daily basis, picnicking and drinking. Police have been down on more than one occasion and asked them to disperse bit next day it is the exact same thing.

The two people walking the dog thing though, if they're from the same household it is allowed isnt it? They may just want to exercise together

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The police struggle with their duties during a short spike in crime on a regular day. That, along with the government's long desire to portray the changing face of crime and how we increasingly need to change to fight more digital crime, is going to be a factor in how many coppers we have on the streets to enforce these things. The government has now been forced to accept that enforcement may be needed to keep people indoors, which goes drastically against their ideal distribution of officers. Going significantly against their ideal setup is becoming quite a theme during this pandemic.

As I said earlier, this doesn't mean higher levels of lockdown are on the way, what it may mean is that higher levels of enforcement will be dispatched in order to enforce the current lockdown procedures.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have to admit that the latest news from Italy is becoming frightening for all those concerned.

People running out of money threats to organise raids on supermarkets, threats to kill, children with no food.

Ok maybe there might be some going over the top here but with our stiff upper lips in this country will we see open threats of disorder?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Downsouth said:

Have to admit that the latest news from Italy is becoming frightening for all those concerned.

People running out of money threats to organise raids on supermarkets, threats to kill, children with no food.

Ok maybe there might be some going over the top here but with our stiff upper lips in this country will we see open threats of disorder?

Gentle reminder that we're two weeks behind Italy, and people can't even stay in their own *** homes over here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Denzel Zanzibar said:

Gentle reminder that we're two weeks behind Italy, and people can't even stay in their own *** homes over here.

Yes stop driving up and down the A19 DZ!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Latest Posts

    • I have to go with my heart and say we're going to get beat, beat, beat, beat, beat, beat, beat...   A win here will put us right back on track for survival. QPR have very little to play for, so I'll go 2-1 Boro (as long as we don't have an American football game/ref again)
    • Well we managed against Stoke... 😉   Hmm. Guess my optimism isn't completely dead yet.
    • Questions Score predictions for this one? God I really don't know. I've given up trying to predict what Boro will do in any given game. QPR are on a bad run of form...but we're hardly on a good one. Like the Hull game I think it'll be a case of whoever is marginally less crap wins. Still have a flicker of hope so: Boro 1 - 0 QPR.   Lineups for the game?   Will Warnock keep us safe? Will he be here next year if he does? Too close to call. If he does manage to keep us up, I reckon he'll stay...as long as Gibson doesn't try to cut his salary in half, like he did with Pulis.   Do we even deserve to stay up if we rely on other teams being handed points deductions? Most definitely not.   Do you prefer to have your Saturday ruined or your Sunday ruined? Saturday - cos then I at least have Sunday to get over my disappointment...before I have to start thinking about work again.
    • I'd say a Barnsley win is the worst result. They're in the relegation zone and have a worse squad than Stoke, a loss stunts their momentum and keeps them in there. Stoke winning isn't ideal, but it's better than Barnsley winning.   We also want Brentford to beat Wigan.
    • Why? It's happened so we should count it. I fancy Wigan to beat our total even with the deduction, but it still needs to be accounted for. 
×
×
  • Create New...