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OzzyPorter

COVID-19 And it’s effect on everyone and everything

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6 minutes ago, OzzyPorter said:

Show the Italians those stats and see what they make of them. 

Like the way the fatality rate per country is highest in Italy? 

Not sure what exact point you are trying to make. 

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Do you not think that people should be vigilante and cautious in order to limit the speed by which this virus is spreading?  Silly stats showing that Italy is the exception isn't helpful at all. I'm astonished by how blasé people are. I'm all for remaining calm but so many are just burying their heads in the sand. I said when I started this post that it was a serious situation but it would seem like a lot of people needs an Italy type scenario before they take this seriously. 

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Just now, OzzyPorter said:

Do you not think that people should be vigilante and cautious in order to limit the speed by which this virus is spreading?  Silly stats showing that Italy is the exception isn't helpful at all. I'm astonished by how blasé people are. I'm all for remaining calm but so many are just burying their heads in the sand. I said when I started this post that it was a serious situation but it would seem like a lot of people needs an Italy type scenario before they take this seriously. 

I think people definitely 100% need to be cautious and vigilant, like they should be at the best of times. One interesting stat there is related to the infection rate. People should not be panicking. My local shop has giant empty spaces because of people buying all the toilet paper (what were they using before now??). You can't find hand sanitiser or dettol wipes anywhere. People are selling hand soap for 10€ a bottle. Its crazy. Yes take precautions, but also be realistic. These are things that everyone should be doing regardless of Covid 19. The amount of people that are blasé about flu for example is crazy, that impacts far more people globally and is a particular scourge amongst the elderly in our communities. 

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29 minutes ago, chipchat said:

Reporters saying he shook hands with the entire squad on Friday at the Millwall game...

Apparently Wolves vs Olympiakos is called off as he owns them too (Olympiakos, not Wolves)

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Agree with all of that. Of course there needs to be a balance but I would suggest erring on the side of caution until scientists know the true severity of this is the most sensible option. For me, that means postponing all social gatherings for the time being. Then, if needs be, cancelling all social gatherings. 

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35 minutes ago, OzzyPorter said:

Agree with all of that. Of course there needs to be a balance but I would suggest erring on the side of caution until scientists know the true severity of this is the most sensible option. For me, that means postponing all social gatherings for the time being. Then, if needs be, cancelling all social gatherings. 

I'm more worried about the impact of all of that than the actual virus itself. To quote Neil Gaiman - "It has been said that civilization is twenty-four hours and two meals away from barbarism." 

What happens when we run out of toilet paper???!?!!

I'm big into data analytics myself (do a lot of BI) so I find stuff like the infographics I posted earlier, and this dashboard below, very interesting despite the morbid subject matter. 

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

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11 hours ago, boroie said:

This is a good set of infographics based on actual research

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

One of the problems with the death rate stats which are always reported is they usually just divide the number of deaths by total cases, which is actually pretty meaningless until the virus has run its course as its effectively assuming everyone still infected will recover.  If you look at the deaths as a proportion of recovered cases then you see a much more realistic death rate.  There is one chart in here which does that, it shows 56.6% of people have recovered and 3.5% died so the death rate has been almost 6% of resolved cases, with 40% of cases still unresolved.  

 

The massive anomoly is that as of yesterday Italy had about 1,000 people recovered and 600 dead which is a death rate closer to 40%.  Its very strange and worrying what is happening in Italy.  

 

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22 minutes ago, sackrobson2 said:

One of the problems with the death rate stats which are always reported is they usually just divide the number of deaths by total cases, which is actually pretty meaningless until the virus has run its course as its effectively assuming everyone still infected will recover.  If you look at the deaths as a proportion of recovered cases then you see a much more realistic death rate.  There is one chart in here which does that, it shows 56.6% of people have recovered and 3.5% died so the death rate has been almost 6% of resolved cases, with 40% of cases still unresolved.  

 

The massive anomoly is that as of yesterday Italy had about 1,000 people recovered and 600 dead which is a death rate closer to 40%.  Its very strange and worrying what is happening in Italy.  

 

The bigger problem with the death rate stats is that we actually have no idea how many people are infected with the disease. 80% or more that get it suffer no/mild symptoms that almost definitely wouldn't cause them to go to a doctor, meaning that reported death rate figures could be as much as 4 or 5 x higher than the reality.

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Yes I agree Will, that’s the better news. there’s undoubtedly lots of undiagnosed people but how can anyone really quantify how many? 
 

most people are tested because they have symptoms so I can’t see who has tested all these people with no symptoms? How can we know it’s 80%?

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In all seriousness, I had a fever, a cough and a muzzy head for a couple of days last week. I live in a county with reported cases of COVID-19. Did I have it? If I did, I certainly haven't tested myself or contributed to the statistics. I felt fine 48 hours later, and nobody I know has come down with it, including my mum who has bronchiectasis.

Just for reference, flu kills up to 650,000 people around the world every year, according to 2017 data from the World Health Organisation. Coronavirus so far has killed 4,300. Every one of those deaths is a tragedy, but not once have I heard of people self-isolating during flu season, or cancelling major events, despite the far higher mortality risk posed by flu.

Reported cases are always going to be at the severe end of the spectrum, or high-profile figures like Nadine Dorries and the Forest owner. Plus, the current mortality rates are being distorted by the fact most of them occurred in China, where endemic levels of COPD mean people often have underlying lung problems to start with. The UK has a far lower prevalence of respiratory conditions than China.

And all the time, people are fuelling hysteria by making bad decisions and panicking. The people selling 49p Lidl hand sanitiser for £25 on eBay need a good slap, especially since it's antibacterial and won't do much against a virus! Ditto people buying hundreds of bog rolls and dried pasta, as if we're in the end time. 

 

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31 minutes ago, RiseAgainst said:

In all seriousness, I had a fever, a cough and a muzzy head for a couple of days last week. I live in a county with reported cases of COVID-19. Did I have it? If I did, I certainly haven't tested myself or contributed to the statistics. I felt fine 48 hours later, and nobody I know has come down with it, including my mum who has bronchiectasis.

Just for reference, flu kills up to 650,000 people around the world every year, according to 2017 data from the World Health Organisation. Coronavirus so far has killed 4,300. Every one of those deaths is a tragedy, but not once have I heard of people self-isolating during flu season, or cancelling major events, despite the far higher mortality risk posed by flu.

Reported cases are always going to be at the severe end of the spectrum, or high-profile figures like Nadine Dorries and the Forest owner. Plus, the current mortality rates are being distorted by the fact most of them occurred in China, where endemic levels of COPD mean people often have underlying lung problems to start with. The UK has a far lower prevalence of respiratory conditions than China.

And all the time, people are fuelling hysteria by making bad decisions and panicking. The people selling 49p Lidl hand sanitiser for £25 on eBay need a good slap, especially since it's antibacterial and won't do much against a virus! Ditto people buying hundreds of bog rolls and dried pasta, as if we're in the end time. 

 

Good, sensible post.

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No need to worry in our country.  Government have been very savvy and sensible in their approach to the virus.  I have 4 kids all in the same school and we had a note from the local council yesterday detailing that it's not airborne, you need to be within 2m of an infected person for around 15 mins.  It's just the media going to town on this, my concern is for an age group that might have issues with the virus.  The majority of youth and young adults will more than likely be ok.  My kids have been given a little brief of what to do, cough sneeze into your sleeve or a tissue and bin it.  Wash hands before eating and after the loo, and just be careful.  It's going to peak around early may they reckon.  Large gatherings should be looked at and if so sporting events should be cancelled.  Get yourself a cup of tea and just see how it goes, I lived through hand foot and mouth, Sars, swine flu..  difference is now you have the fact that every person has a phone and is a reporter.  

 

Happy Wednesday folks!  Stay clean

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22 minutes ago, boro_fan_in_brum said:

No need to worry in our country.  Government have been very savvy and sensible in their approach to the virus.  I have 4 kids all in the same school and we had a note from the local council yesterday detailing that it's not airborne, you need to be within 2m of an infected person for around 15 mins.  It's just the media going to town on this, my concern is for an age group that might have issues with the virus.  The majority of youth and young adults will more than likely be ok.  My kids have been given a little brief of what to do, cough sneeze into your sleeve or a tissue and bin it.  Wash hands before eating and after the loo, and just be careful.  It's going to peak around early may they reckon.  Large gatherings should be looked at and if so sporting events should be cancelled.  Get yourself a cup of tea and just see how it goes, I lived through hand foot and mouth, Sars, swine flu..  difference is now you have the fact that every person has a phone and is a reporter.  

 

Happy Wednesday folks!  Stay clean

Another very good post. At least *most* of us on oneBoro seem to be sensible, level headed people!

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2 hours ago, sackrobson2 said:

Yes I agree Will, that’s the better news. there’s undoubtedly lots of undiagnosed people but how can anyone really quantify how many? 
 

most people are tested because they have symptoms so I can’t see who has tested all these people with no symptoms? How can we know it’s 80%?

Heard yesterday from a colleague that if 1 is infected today 36 will be infected tomorrow. Don't know where she got it from though and whether that's any worse than the flu.

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2 hours ago, RiseAgainst said:

In all seriousness, I had a fever, a cough and a muzzy head for a couple of days last week. I live in a county with reported cases of COVID-19. Did I have it? If I did, I certainly haven't tested myself or contributed to the statistics. I felt fine 48 hours later, and nobody I know has come down with it, including my mum who has bronchiectasis.

Just for reference, flu kills up to 650,000 people around the world every year, according to 2017 data from the World Health Organisation. Coronavirus so far has killed 4,300. Every one of those deaths is a tragedy, but not once have I heard of people self-isolating during flu season, or cancelling major events, despite the far higher mortality risk posed by flu.

Reported cases are always going to be at the severe end of the spectrum, or high-profile figures like Nadine Dorries and the Forest owner. Plus, the current mortality rates are being distorted by the fact most of them occurred in China, where endemic levels of COPD mean people often have underlying lung problems to start with. The UK has a far lower prevalence of respiratory conditions than China.

And all the time, people are fuelling hysteria by making bad decisions and panicking. The people selling 49p Lidl hand sanitiser for £25 on eBay need a good slap, especially since it's antibacterial and won't do much against a virus! Ditto people buying hundreds of bog rolls and dried pasta, as if we're in the end time. 

 

Definitely the best and most level headed response to all of this, that i have seen.

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