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COVID-19 Life now and beyond


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8 minutes ago, sackrobson2 said:

Yes I get that and I’m not saying it will definitely work, as to make it work well they have to slow it to a rate the NHS can deal with, as I mentioned in my post. Obviously if it goes too fast the NHS can’t cope. 

Herd immunity isn't a strategy for the short to medium term. It's surely at least a year away?!

IFfapprox 2/3rd of the country need to have been infected and recovered, then as said 40-45 mill people. Lets be optimistic and say we start to see it at 40mill people. To reach that in 1 year we would need 3.33mill infections a month. 3.33mill infections a month would mean approx 330k people needing intensive care, and a further 330k needing hospitalisation that month. Even if you average them needing 2 weeks care, that's 165k intensive care, and 165k further hospital beds.

The NHS hasn't got the capacity to support those numbers right now. Even those kind of numbers would surely have devastating consequences, unless we support with other measures, to deal with short and medium term control of the virus spread....but that will push the herd immunity date further to the right, so, hmm, doesn't sound realistic.

On top of that, going for herd immunity means our NHS staff coming into contact with lots of patients soon, and that means they will catch it and reduce our capacity.

Sorry, but this simply is not a workable strategy for the short to medium term. We need to find methods to reduce infections, not increase them to get to 60% as quick as possible. It defies common sense for a reason.

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I had my test results back and they were positive for Covid-19.. So lucky that I just had the mild symptoms!! 

Branson owns an island and a spaceship, but he wants aid from the government and he’s happy to hang his employees out to dry the man is callous. 

Hope everyone's doing well and keeping healthy! Haven't posted for a few months due to being busy and the lack of football, but had a gradual read through this thread. Crazy looking back at the f

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33 minutes ago, BoroMart said:

Herd immunity isn't a strategy for the short to medium term. It's surely at least a year away?!

IFfapprox 2/3rd of the country need to have been infected and recovered, then as said 40-45 mill people. Lets be optimistic and say we start to see it at 40mill people. To reach that in 1 year we would need 3.33mill infections a month. 3.33mill infections a month would mean approx 330k people needing intensive care, and a further 330k needing hospitalisation that month. Even if you average them needing 2 weeks care, that's 165k intensive care, and 165k further hospital beds.

The NHS hasn't got the capacity to support those numbers right now. Even those kind of numbers would surely have devastating consequences, unless we support with other measures, to deal with short and medium term control of the virus spread....but that will push the herd immunity date further to the right, so, hmm, doesn't sound realistic.

On top of that, going for herd immunity means our NHS staff coming into contact with lots of patients soon, and that means they will catch it and reduce our capacity.

Sorry, but this simply is not a workable strategy for the short to medium term. We need to find methods to reduce infections, not increase them to get to 60% as quick as possible. It defies common sense for a reason.

Hey to be clear this isn’t my strategy! This is what the government was saying it’s trying to do. I totally agree it’s risky.  In fact they seem to be back tracking now and denying it was ever the plan, presumably because of the negative reaction from a lot of scientists.

 

 

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@BoroMart spot on. Herd immunity at this stage is a pipe dream. Obviously in the long run its a good option, but when it is the stated goal of a containment strategy for a pandemic then you need to look at the logic behind it. There is a reason that most impacted countries (starting with China) are looking to 'flatten the curve' which means delaying the onset for the majority so that the health systems can cope. 

Anyway, wasn't "Britain has had enough of experts" one of the central slogans/tenets of Brexit? 

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On 3/12/2020 at 12:05 PM, sanddancer said:

Oh hell I'm 62 and off to Poland tomorrow for the weekend, should I cancel.
To be fair there is a risk but we have decided to go ahead based on the assumption that by staying home we could just as well catch the virus popping down to Tesco. The wife works at a college so there is another possibility. 
On average in the UK  17,000 people die of flu each year, globally 646,0000. As of today 6 people have died in the UK. The Corona Virus will not simply disappear and it’s going to be around for years not days and it will need a vaccine to help protect people. 
Of course we should be worried it’s a very dangerous virus and it’s now pandemic but I agree the media is whipping the public into a frenzy. 
 

Well sad to say we never went. Actually a Polish friend with family working in government had prior information of the country shutting down, so on the day of travel we decided getting trapped in Poland was not an option, and canceled. The point being if the government and airline knew it was closing down, which it did, why allow people to travel. To be fair the hotel extended credit until the end of 2020, Leeds Bradford airport stated they will review returning booked parking fees but Ryanair, well it’s impossible to talk or communicate with anyone so wrote the flights off.

The virus is causing problems for individuals and officials and I would like to see a more stiff lip, unity, carry on British attitude rather than the embarrassment and mockery the media are promoting. If ever there should be a law introduced  it’s holding the media to account for incitement to cause panic. People are seeking direction and advise they don’t need to be encouraged to go panic buying or looting shops. All media stories using suggestive words, possibly, could or may should be banned and they must prove statements of chaotic disturbance. 

i can’t help but feel this generation are mentally and socially weaker than past. I don’t know how many times I’ve heard “someone should be doing something about this” or mis statements about the virus what it is, how it’s spread, it’s effects because they don’t research, yet, gleefully take to social media to promote rumors. I was actually told by one 28 year old the USA started the epidemic and a family member told me, the Iranians planted the virus.  
 

Well it’s only going to get worse so I guess people will be throwing themselves from windows in panic. So my advise, check in on those who may need help. don’t walk close to high rise buildings, stay calm and carry on. 

 
 


 

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Very interesting reading but what seems to be the case is that for many who contract COVID 19 they will only display mild/medium symptoms as per the usual cold and flu situation and in many cases they will not be even aware that they have had it.

There is no general testing as such and at the moment all we are told to do is self isolate if we show signs of anything, but there were other cods and flu out there before this happened.

The only real difference is that it is having a effect on life styles and financial implications unlike anything else we have experienced.

There is no reporting of folks getting better which is needed I believe to balance things out, all doom and gloom intending to frighten the population from news sources. The thought  of soldiers guarding supermarkets and pharmacies is frightening in the least which I hope never happens due to what could follow.

It is high time that positive news came out   

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On 3/13/2020 at 12:37 PM, northern boro said:

Callum Hudson Odoi has put a video up on social media saying he's fine he came down with symptoms on Monday and has already recovered.

I guess for the vast majority it's not as bad as the media make out. 

Well thats the thing.

Coronavirus isn't fatal for the generally fit and under-60s. You'll feel a bit crap for a few days, but will get over it.

The issue is protecting the elderly and those with existing health / immune system issues (e.g. people undergoing cancer treatment). 

However, part of the plan is to try to get most of the population to develop "herd immunity" - basically allow them to get infected, get over it and have their immune systems produce antibodies, which will recognise and kill the virus in future. Hence why we haven't taken the same measures as Ireland and other parts of Europe to restrict movement of people, kept schools open etc.

 

Government has announced the next step is to try and physically isolate the elderly to reduce the risk to them...but since they often need medical treatment and assistance to get on with their lives, this won't be easy.

So, yeah, I do have quite a bit of sympathy for the government...and the people advising them. You try and solve one problem, but can end up creating others.

Everyone's just having to play it by ear and do what they think is best, since we don't have the kind of historical data (or vaccines) that we do for flu epidemics.

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3 hours ago, BoroJake said:

Seems like the government is backing away from herd immunity again. Matt Hancock said they weren’t doing herd immunity this morning

It was never government policy. 

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3 hours ago, ABH said:

It was never government policy. 

I don't understand why people keep saying that it is?  Maybe the Government haven't explained themselves well enough but it seems clear to me what their position is - they believe it's inevitable that most of the population will get the virus.  Once containment had failed then that was unavoidable no matter what action is taken.  After that point their aim is to manage the virus as much as possible in terms of who gets it and when they get it.  That's why they've delayed closures of various things despite the fact that they've made it clear that at some point these measures will be enforced because they are wanting to do things at the right time and when these things start, they likely won't be ended for months.   When herd immunity has been mentioned, that's not about now or the next few weeks.  That's about the future so that the at risk groups have another protective barrier between the virus and themselves - if we can get to a point when a lot of healthy people have had it and developed an immunity to it then this protects people who might not be able to fight it off, or fight it off as easily.  The alternative would be having them quarantined in some way for months on end, which I don't believe is practical at all.  This isn't the Government's way of tackling the virus though, it's just something that could be helpful further down the line.

I have no idea if their method is the best way or not because I don't know anything about this subject and neither does most of the population.  The people who are making these decisions do have expertise though and I'm going to trust them on that basis and hope that things turn out for the best.  What else is there to do at the end of the day?  Try and look after yourselves, your loved ones, and everyone else, to the best of your abilities.  Most people will be ok, sadly some will not, and that could be any of us when it comes down to it.  It's not a nice thought but it's seems to be where we are at right now. 

Also it's worth remembering that you don't need to wait for someone to tell you what to do, you can take your own measures as you see fit.

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25 minutes ago, Changing Times said:

They are shutting the pubs in Ireland.  Now we know things are getting serious.

 200.gif

the muppets panic GIF

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10 hours ago, Downsouth said:

There is no reporting of folks getting better which is needed I believe to balance things out, all doom and gloom intending to frighten the population from news sources. The thought  of soldiers guarding supermarkets and pharmacies is frightening in the least which I hope never happens due to what could follow.

It is high time that positive news came out   

I don't think the news agencies are purposefully ignoring recovery news. We have barely had any recoveries in this country, just 18. Maybe next week there may be more stories of recovery when the early cases have had a full 14+ days to recover.

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