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The current world death rate based on total recorded closed cases is now up to 11%. It was 6% a couple of weeks ago. It’s gone up since China got the virus under control.
 

The official recorded death rate in China was about 4% and no country will get close to that figure, it will be higher everywhere else in the world. Anyone on here still kidding themselves this is a flu needs to wake up. The uk will end up with a death rate significantly higher than 4% and this means old people are at a massively higher risk of death. 
 

There’s a big argument lots of people are going undiagnosed which is fair enough but Germany are testing everyone. See the chart. 21,000 cases and only 73 deaths. A paltry 0.3% death rate. But also see the closed cases chart. 26% death rate. 
 

stay at home guys. 
 

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I had my test results back and they were positive for Covid-19.. So lucky that I just had the mild symptoms!! 

Hope everyone's doing well and keeping healthy! Haven't posted for a few months due to being busy and the lack of football, but had a gradual read through this thread. Crazy looking back at the f

My wife is self isolating due to the anti-cancer drugs she is on, which means we are sleeping in separate bedrooms, separate sofas etc,  I am shopping and cooking all the meals (which we both prefer),

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Let's not forget that Boris Johnson backed proposals for a flower filled bridge over the River Thames which was never built and cost the country £53m (£43m of which was public money.)

After all, who needs a well funded National Health Service when you can have a pretty bridge to look at instead?

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5 hours ago, Denzel Zanzibar said:

Just got an email from my employer informing me that i'm classed as a Key Worker. Doesn't help at all though as I have the car and my daughter's school is too far away realistically for my wife to walk to and back from every day. 

Grandparents have been told to self-isolate so they can't help out at all.

Luckily it's only Nursery she's missing, my wife can probably teach her everything at home!

The one good aspect is I guess it means my job is very safe, that's one reassuring thing 🙂

Being in the same industry as you the only concern is that to a degree we have to rely on not many getting the virus and that there are enough relief officers to go round, otherwise there could be issues.

 

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3 hours ago, sanddancer said:

OK so how would you handle the situation? 
I believe Boris is listening to professionals and acting accordingly. He has lead without fear and should be commended. 

The point is no other realistic leader would be sat at the helm right now doing anything different. The only possible alternatives to Boris sit to the left of him, any further right and you're in Trumpian 'fake news' territory. The leader shouldn't be 'commended' for listening to people who are experts in their field and acting upon their advice, there's nothing partisan about that. Every leader should do that.

Over in the US, the President is still listening to FOX news and reacting so late to everything because for too long he's viewed a life threatening disease as a political football, just like everything else. We can be glad we are not in America but we shouldn't be jumping for joy because of that alone.

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1 hour ago, sackrobson2 said:

The current world death rate based on total recorded closed cases is now up to 11%. It was 6% a couple of weeks ago. It’s gone up since China got the virus under control.
 

The official recorded death rate in China was about 4% and no country will get close to that figure, it will be higher everywhere else in the world. Anyone on here still kidding themselves this is a flu needs to wake up. The uk will end up with a death rate significantly higher than 4% and this means old people are at a massively higher risk of death. 
 

There’s a big argument lots of people are going undiagnosed which is fair enough but Germany are testing everyone. See the chart. 21,000 cases and only 73 deaths. A paltry 0.3% death rate. But also see the closed cases chart. 26% death rate. 
 

stay at home guys. 
 

22BC6A8C-BF4F-4468-97D3-5122B21E091D.jpeg

6CB6739F-8B8C-42CE-BA9B-361D6BDCBC23.jpeg

Just out of interest, how does a 'recovery' come to a conclusion? Will every single open case eventually reach recovered or death? Do they just retest those who had it?

Just thinking, perhaps naively, that perhaps a death rate by closed case statistics is always going to be higher. Because if someone dies, that's an immediate cross on the tally chart. But if you're not ultimately clocking up the recoveries at the same rate, which we almost certainly are not, that's always going to be a more frightening skew in the early months.

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19 minutes ago, Downsouth said:

Being in the same industry as you the only concern is that to a degree we have to rely on not many getting the virus and that there are enough relief officers to go round, otherwise there could be issues.

 

Yeah, I haven't got any holidays booked but i'm expecting those of us that have will be asked to cancel them just in case a few of our guards get sick and there's no cover.

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There’s a good reason we don’t chat about politics on this forum. Think we should keep it that way 

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2 hours ago, Uwe said:

There’s a good reason we don’t chat about politics on this forum. Think we should keep it that way 

To be fair, I think a lot of the conversation has tried to be as non-partisan as possible. But we can't have a thread about COVID and its wider effects outside of football and avoid politics, really.

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3 hours ago, wilsoncgp said:
4 hours ago, sackrobson2 said:

The current world death rate based on total recorded closed cases is now up to 11%. It was 6% a couple of weeks ago. It’s gone up since China got the virus under control.
 

The official recorded death rate in China was about 4% and no country will get close to that figure, it will be higher everywhere else in the world. Anyone on here still kidding themselves this is a flu needs to wake up. The uk will end up with a death rate significantly higher than 4% and this means old people are at a massively higher risk of death. 
 

There’s a big argument lots of people are going undiagnosed which is fair enough but Germany are testing everyone. See the chart. 21,000 cases and only 73 deaths. A paltry 0.3% death rate. But also see the closed cases chart. 26% death rate. 
 

stay at home guys. 
 

22BC6A8C-BF4F-4468-97D3-5122B21E091D.jpeg

6CB6739F-8B8C-42CE-BA9B-361D6BDCBC23.jpeg

Just out of interest, how does a 'recovery' come to a conclusion? Will every single open case eventually reach recovered or death? Do they just retest those who had it?

Just thinking, perhaps naively, that perhaps a death rate by closed case statistics is always going to be higher. Because if someone dies, that's an immediate cross on the tally chart. But if you're not ultimately clocking up the recoveries at the same rate, which we almost certainly are not, that's always going to be a more frightening skew in the early months.

I think we need a bit of clarity here.  Those figures will be for people who have been hospitalised, hence the discharged part, which by definition will be the most serious cases.  Most people who get this will not go to hospital and won't be included in any figures anywhere.  The death rate of people who end up in hospital will be relatively high for obvious reasons - if you're there then more likely than not you have underlying health issues already and this is the complication that seems to be leading to deaths so far.  The overall death rate won't be anything like that, in terms of number of fatalities against the total number of people who have actually had the virus.

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So to expand on that.  There are have been around 12,000 deaths so far from 300,000 confirmed cases.  This is a fatality rate of 4%, not 11%.  But that is only the confirmed cases.  We already know that people in this country aren't being tested even if they have symptoms, they are just being asked to stay at home.  It's almost certain that around the world there will be lots of people who have had it, had no symptoms at all, and won't have been tested as well as people who have had it with symptoms but haven't been tested, either because they are in isolation, the symptoms were mild, or there is a similar policy to this country.

None of that means this isn't serious, far from it.  It's horrible and it's going to kill a lot of people, sadly.  That's why it's important to try and follow all of the advice being given 👍

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11 hours ago, Changing Times said:

So to expand on that.  There are have been around 12,000 deaths so far from 300,000 confirmed cases.  This is a fatality rate of 4%, not 11%.  But that is only the confirmed cases.  We already know that people in this country aren't being tested even if they have symptoms, they are just being asked to stay at home.  It's almost certain that around the world there will be lots of people who have had it, had no symptoms at all, and won't have been tested as well as people who have had it with symptoms but haven't been tested, either because they are in isolation, the symptoms were mild, or there is a similar policy to this country.

None of that means this isn't serious, far from it.  It's horrible and it's going to kill a lot of people, sadly.  That's why it's important to try and follow all of the advice being given 👍

That’s all true but of those 300,000 you quote, approx 200,000 still have it and a hell of a lot of them will die, so that 4% number doesn’t really mean much. It just means 4% of the recorded people who have it now have died at this point, when only a third of cases have resolved. I agree we have no idea of actual total cases, certainly in the Uk we are not even trying to find this out. 
 

on the plus side, Wilson highlighted that people do die a lot quicker than they recover so the early stats are massively weighted to the deaths. On that worldometers website there is a graph of this particular measure and the Chinese started out at almost 50% and it came down to 4%. As the virus is subsiding in China it is converging with the simple deaths divided by cases metric which is only really valid once the virus has gone away.  
 

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11 hours ago, Changing Times said:

I think we need a bit of clarity here.  Those figures will be for people who have been hospitalised, hence the discharged part, which by definition will be the most serious cases.  Most people who get this will not go to hospital and won't be included in any figures anywhere.  The death rate of people who end up in hospital will be relatively high for obvious reasons - if you're there then more likely than not you have underlying health issues already and this is the complication that seems to be leading to deaths so far.  The overall death rate won't be anything like that, in terms of number of fatalities against the total number of people who have actually had the virus.

I’m not sure that means it’s only hospitalised. It says recovered / discharged, recovered suggests it includes anyone confirmed recovered, otherwise it would just say discharged. Though how they get these numbers I’m not sure. Presumably if you have mild symptoms and have to quarantine at home you would need to be tested again a few weeks later before you can come out of quarantine. 
 

I think to be honest it’s not clear exactly what the true figures are but what’s clear is a lot of people are dying and to reduce the number we all have to try and spend a few months at least being antisocial. 

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8 minutes ago, Borodane said:

Apparently the Germans have started stockpiling sausages and cheese. Is that the würst käse scenario?

And they have pre booked all the sun loungers in The Canaries for when they can go on holiday!

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