Uwe 3,543 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 19 minutes ago, Blanco said: Putin has just made a simple statement: He said “Russian citizens have two options (1) Stay at home for 15 days or (2) Stay in prison for 5 years” End of statement He said a similar thing to the known Hooligans during the World Cup 😂 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Blanco 4,900 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Uwe said: He said a similar thing to the known Hooligans during the World Cup 😂 And there was no violence at the World Cup 👍 Link to post Share on other sites
boroie 484 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 This is a good read https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/ Link to post Share on other sites
Blanco 4,900 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 25 minutes ago, boroie said: This is a good read https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/ Yes it is a good read. Good post @boroie 👍 Link to post Share on other sites
boro-unger 3,817 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 Stay at home for 15 days or you have to come and watch the Boro for 5 years... that should be equally effective over here 1 3 Link to post Share on other sites
Ash 167 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 (edited) We could all be on lockdown from tomorrow because of idiots not following the safety advice. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Changing Times 12,220 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, boro-unger said: Stay at home for 15 days or you have to come and watch the Boro for 5 years... that should be equally effective over here I'll stay at home for 30 days if it means I don't need to watch us for 10 years 🙏 Link to post Share on other sites
macapes 1,886 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 11 hours ago, AnglianRed said: Well some folks on here were saying that 2 weeks ago we would be in the same situation as Italy. As of today, we're still a long way behind where Italy was, both in terms of recorded cases and deaths (they were already at over 7,000 cases and 360 deaths). Its absolutely tragic how those numbers have escalated since...though medical experts have pointed out Italy has a much larger elderly population than the UK...so maybe those numbers just reflect that. Looking at the pure numbers, it would appear the government's actions are suppressing the rise in cases and fatalities better than in most other countries. As I said in another post, we may have a capitalist, Tory government in power, but I'm pretty sure their motivations have been anything but selfish...for two reasons. First and foremost, the longer you keep the country "locked down", the harder it is for businesses to survive. Those businesses provide employment and income to people. If the businesses go under, people can lose their jobs. Secondly, the longer restrictions are imposed, the higher the risk of people ignoring them and the necessity of needing the police and even the Army to enforce those restrictions. Just thought of a third one. The government is already having to borrow massiv5te amounts of money. Putting the measures in place earlier would mean borrowing even more. This WILL come back to bite us on the ass at some point, in the form of more austerity measures. So I'm guessing they are trying to limit their borrowing as far as possible. AS I've said before, its an incredibly tricky balancing act they are trying to perform, between stamping out the virus and retaining some semblance of normality...AND limiting the economic impacts, both during and after. As of yesterday we were exactly 2 weeks behind Italy. On March 7th they had 233 deaths. Yesterday so did we. UK, 19th - 144, 20th - 177, 21st - 233. ITA, 5th - 148, 6th - 197, 7th - 233 We are mirroring their growth, just 2 weeks behind. It doesn't mean we catch up in two weeks, it means in two weeks expect 700 deaths a day, whilst who knows where ITA will be. They went on lock down 2 weeks ago tomorrow. We haven't learned. Link to post Share on other sites
AnglianRed 6,229 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Blanco said: And there was no violence at the World Cup 👍 I've seen video footage of how the Russian police operate...I'm not surprised! 😲 Then again they don't have to worry about stuff like Police Complaints Commissions. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
sackrobson2 371 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, Changing Times said: A hell of a lot of them probably won't die though! If I said to you that 250,000 people might die from this in this country alone then that's a huge number obviously but it's only about 0.38% of the population. Most of the people who contract this virus will not die from it however. That's not me trying to be an expert, that's me reading the various stuff from the experts who are quite clear in saying this. Thus far the global percentages seem to match the Chinese percentages from earlier on, suggesting that they are indeed reasonably accurate. There can always be outliers for different reasons - Italy has been hard hit for example. But there is nothing to suggest that mortality rates will be a lot higher everywhere else at this point in time and it's wrong to say that. I have to stress this again, even in countries with the most extensive testing, there will be people who have the virus and aren't being tested because they have no symptoms at all so the number of people who have this is going to be a lot higher than the current totals and the mortality rates should therefore be lower. The critical thing, as we've seen mentioned repeatedly, is trying to protect the more vulnerable people in society. If we can do this and do it well then the mortality rates should be even lower still. My point was that the stat of 4% literally assumes that none of them will die. Every death from those 200,000 increases this %. Link to post Share on other sites
Changing Times 12,220 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 22 minutes ago, sackrobson2 said: My point was that the stat of 4% literally assumes that none of them will die. Every death from those 200,000 increases this %. No it doesn't because people are continuing to get the virus. When it's all played out they actually expect it to be less than 4% and part of that is because they believe that lots of people have the virus and aren't being counted in the official statistics so the actual percentage is already lower than it is reported. The countries that have been hardest hit, like Italy, seem to have an unusually high number of older people who have contracted the virus. I'm not entirely sure if this is correct but apparently only a quarter of cases in Italy are people under the age of 50. So that's a huge number of older people catching the virus and a lot of people with pre-existing medical issues. I read somewhere else that the average age of people dying there is nearly 80. That doesn't change the fact that people are dying, but it does paint a slight different picture of what's happened and is happening in that country. There is no reason at all to think that the same thing will happen worldwide as demographics are different across different nations. Having said that, if people keep acting like they can do whatever they like here then the situation will end up worse than it needs to be. Link to post Share on other sites
sackrobson2 371 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) 59 minutes ago, Changing Times said: No it doesn't because people are continuing to get the virus. When it's all played out they actually expect it to be less than 4% and part of that is because they believe that lots of people have the virus and aren't being counted in the official statistics so the actual percentage is already lower than it is reported. The countries that have been hardest hit, like Italy, seem to have an unusually high number of older people who have contracted the virus. I'm not entirely sure if this is correct but apparently only a quarter of cases in Italy are people under the age of 50. So that's a huge number of older people catching the virus and a lot of people with pre-existing medical issues. I read somewhere else that the average age of people dying there is nearly 80. That doesn't change the fact that people are dying, but it does paint a slight different picture of what's happened and is happening in that country. There is no reason at all to think that the same thing will happen worldwide as demographics are different across different nations. Having said that, if people keep acting like they can do whatever they like here then the situation will end up worse than it needs to be. But that’s the point, you are adding in new people to dilute the results. Imagine nobody else contracts the virus. The denominator remains at 300k, the numerator increases significantly. So of the 300,000 people who have it now, a lot more than 4% of them will die. That was my point, I’m not arguing about other stuff. I agree lots of other people have it we don’t know about so the real number is then reduced but we just have no idea what that number is. I also agree death rates seem to be massively diffeeent for healthy younger people than old people or people with pre existing conditions. But I’m sure a lot of people on this board fall into the higher risk of death categories so that’s probably not very reassuring. What we all have to do is try to slow it down and hope a vaccine can be produced ASAP. That will be the game changer. It’s *** but we have to stay home and try to protect the more at risk people. Edited March 23, 2020 by sackrobson2 Link to post Share on other sites
Denzel Zanzibar 6,931 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) For anyone wondering why Italy has had so many deaths and why we probably won't, Google the "belt and road initiative." Not to say people in this country won't die, they will. But it won't be as bad as Italy. Link to post Share on other sites
Uwe 3,543 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 Easy to see guide of how social distancing should work 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Downsouth 6,176 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Denzel Zanzibar said: For anyone wondering why Italy has had so many deaths and why we probably won't, Google the "belt and road initiative." Not to say people in this country won't die, they will. But it won't be as bad as Italy. Do not many will agree with that but let us see where we are in 2 weeks. Italy though has reported a reduction on new cases however Link to post Share on other sites
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